Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 10th
What a weird night last night. For whoever picked the White Sox, congrats as I did not see that explosion of hits coming at Comerica. The good thing is we get an entirely new slate of games tonight to play, and most of them are at night. There are some solid pitchers going and also some really good matchups to exploit so lets get to it.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 0.6 | 0.367 | 0.355 | 0.97 | Lindblom – R | 4.5 | 0.321 |
| Adrian Beltre | 2.09 | 0.318 | 0.39 | 0.97 | Chen – L | 3.04 | 0.341 |
| Prince Fielder | 0.61 | 0.288 | 0.343 | 0.97 | Axelrod – R | 4.97 | 0.243 |
| Victor Martinez | 1.143 | 0.261 | 0.293 | 0.97 | Axelrod – R | 4.97 | 0.262 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.984 | 0.319 | 0.327 | 0.89 | Milone – L | 4.11 | 0.339 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 1.363 | 0.303 | 0.329 | 0.99 | Wilson – L | 3.49 | 0.302 |
| Cody Ross | 1.006 | 0.297 | 0.312 | 0.96 | Ryu – L | 2.82 | 0.395 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 1.259 | 0.416 | 0.488 | 0.96 | Skaggs – L | 3.65 | 0.281 |
| Kelly Johnson | 0.761 | 0.269 | 0.323 | 1.01 | Correia – R | 4.19 | 0.221 |
| Allen Craig | 1.257 | 0.374 | 0.374 | 0.88 | Lyles – R | 3.87 | 0.336 |
- The matchup in Camden yards has my favorite 3rd base matchup of the day. We get Manny Machado vs Beltre, and while one is on fire, another one looks to have a good shot to heat up. Machado hit a home run last night and likes hitting right handers better than left. This game has one of the highest over/unders of the night and I am not concerned about Lindblom’s success against right handers just due to the small sample size.
- Adrian Beltre is incredibly hot, all you have to do is look at the 2.090 OPS in his last 7 games. I considered him briefly last night but did not use him and am regretting it now. I am definitely going to try to find a spot for him tonight even with the likely increase in salary as he is just destroying whatever pitching he is facing, and Chen is just coming off the DL possibly to a rude awakening.
- Even with the Tigers disaster last night and the fact that Porcello is pitching, they still opened as -225 favorites over the White Sox in this game. One player I really like on the Tigers is Prince Fielder as his price is incredibly low almost everywhere. Axelrod has given up 12 homers to left handers this year, and I would not be surprised for him to give up a couple more tonight.
- Victor Martinez is another guy who is really hitting well right now. The surprising fact is that his salary is not getting any higher. I mentioned above about how favored the Tigers are in this game, and with Fielder hitting above him, Martinez makes a really nice mini stack option at catcher behind Fielder.
- Andrew McCutchen loves hitting at home and loves hitting against left handers. Tommy Milone is coming to town, and the Pirates really need a jump start to their offense as it is scuffling recently. Enter McCutchen, as he has a perfect chance to start something for the Pirates today.
- Well, well, well, look who decided to start hitting for power again? Alfonso Soriano has been tearing it up hitting 5 homers in his last 4 games, all Cubs wins. He gets another try at home tonight against a left hander in Wilson who has struggled away from Angel Stadium this year. If his price is still reasonable, I think he makes a great play today.
- I am sure everyone knows Cody Ross proficiency against left handers. Ryu has been good, so a Diamondbacks stack is not advised, however a filler play like Ross or Goldschmidt could pay off today. Ross is my pick just because of how cheap he is everywhere.
- Hanley Ramirez just continues to put up ridiculous offensive numbers, as evidenced by his absurd wOBA of .488 which is insanely good. Eventually he will come back to earth, however if you can fit him into your salary against Skaggs I am expecting a really nice game again for Hanley. He is hitting in a hitters park against a left hander who he has destroyed in his career.
- Kelly Johnson makes a really nice play today, especially at 2nd base where he has some eligibility. He is 7 for 22 with 4 homers off Correia in their career, and has all 12 of his homers against right handed pitching this year. Johnson is the type of guy who hits a homer out of nowhere, and he is really cheap across the industry.
- Allen Craig also makes a dangerous outside the box play tonight, as he is facing the righty Lyles. One thing I have been impressed with Craig this year is his ability to hit right handers for average, as he is hitting .336 against them. Lyles has been pretty bad in his last 3 games, and has not been effective at all. The interesting thing to note about Lyles is his .780 OPS given up to right handers, and the fact that he has given up more homers against right handers than lefties on the season.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Utley | 0.74 | 0.286 | 0.362 | 1.09 | Gonzalez – L | 3.14 | 0.232 |
| Denard Span | 0.6 | 0.306 | 0.3 | 1.09 | Lee – L | 2.73 | 0.154 |
| Andre Ethier | 1.02 | 0.31 | 0.319 | 1.01 | Skaggs – L | 3.65 | 0.232 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.648 | 0.278 | 0.391 | 1.09 | Lee – L | 2.73 | 0.196 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 1.05 | 0.246 | 0.385 | 0.99 | Masterson – R | 3.78 | 0.258 |
| Carl Crawford | 0.186 | 0.309 | 0.333 | 1.01 | Skaggs – L | 3.65 | 0.264 |
| Kyle Seager | 1.345 | 0.318 | 0.359 | 0.97 | Doubront – L | 4.11 | 0.25 |
| Ryan Doumit | 0.42 | 0.253 | 0.298 | 1.01 | Hellickson – R | 4.67 | 0.209 |
| Salvador Perez | 0.409 | 0.332 | 0.314 | 0.94 | Nova – R | 4.09 | 0.309 |
| Gerardo Parra | 0.491 | 0.338 | 0.343 | 1.01 | Ryu – L | 2.82 | 0.26 |
- I really do not want to chance it with Chase Utley today, as he is facing one of the better lefties in the game in Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has held lefties to a .455 OPS this season and Utley’s strength is batting against right handers. I am not too high on Philly at all in this game, and think there are better options out there at 2nd.
- The Phillies/Nationals brings a nice dynamic tonight as they are playing in a park which has been very kind to left handers all year, however they have 2 of the best left handed pitchers towing the mound tonight. I am going with the pitchers winning this battle and am staying away from the left handed bats. Span has really struggled against lefties only posting a .398 OPS and 2 extra base hits all season, and Cliff Lee is no slouch.
- I have been touting Andre Ethier for a couple of days against right handers, and he has paid off with decent games each time making his value. Here I am very wary of him as he is facing a lefty who he struggles against and who has just got done pitching a gem. He is seeing the ball well but the numbers are telling me to avoid him today.
- Bryce Harper looks like another guy you want to avoid in the Phils/Nats game, as he has really struggled as well against lefties this year going for only 2 homers and a .196 average. Harper is also not having much success recently, dropping his season OPS and average as he is only hitting .600 OPS in the last 7 days.
- It is not Edwin Encarnacion numbers today that scare me, it is that he is facing Masterson in Progressive Field. Masterson has only given up 2 homers all year pitching at home and 2 total to right handed batters this year who are averaging a .498 OPS against him. Add that into the fact that Encarnacion is 2 for 11 with no homers, and I think this is enough to pass on Edwin today.
- Carl Crawford finally got his first hit last game since returning from the DL, but is anyone convinced that he is back producing every day? I am very wary of this and for the same reasons as Ethier I am not going to play him today even though his salary is super affordable. Those 0 for 4, 0 for 5 earlier performances are scaring me off, and I do not think that his price is low enough to warrant serious consideration.
- When Doubront has started games this season, he has been very effective, only giving up 2-3 runs per game, limiting the other team. Even though Kyle Seager is super hot right now there are other comperable salary options at 3rd which bring better upside as Seager has .200 points lower OPS against lefties than righties.
- A cold hitter against a hot pitcher is definitely not the matchup I am looking to exploit, and that’s what we have here. Hellickson has been incredibly good in his last 4 starts, and throughout that timeframe, Doumit has been pretty bad. Hellickson has done his work in 3 of those games against very good offensive teams and seems to be on the right track while Doumit is going the other direction.
- I am not sure if I believe that Nova’s start last time out is the norm, in fact, I believe that it is not, but what Salvador Perez has been doing is uninspiring. Perez really is not hitting for much power, and in the past 5 days he has not been hitting for average either, in fact he has gone 3 days without a knock. This just does not look like a good opportunity in Yankee stadium to me.
- Gerardo Parra as well has been struggling to do anything correct with the bat in the last week, and has not gotten in a groove against left handed pitching this entire season, posting a .662 OPS. Parra has not homered against a lefty yet this season, and Ryu has been very good so far this season. There are other outfielders that you can take a chance on with higher upside.