Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 24th
Welcome to Wednesday Grinders. Not too many games in the early schedule so we will focus on the night games. Only weather concern right now is in Colorado, but everything else seems pretty straightforward today. Lets get right to the analysis of today.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wil Myers | 1.5 | 0.383 | 0.34 | 1.05 | Doubront – L | 3.76 | 0.278 |
| Jose Reyes | 0.721 | 0.333 | 0.358 | 1.02 | Nolasco – R | 3.75 | 0.32 |
| Adrian Beltre | 0.647 | 0.306 | 0.382 | 0.97 | Pettitte – L | 4.47 | 0.33 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.364 | 0.341 | 0.327 | 0.87 | Danks – L | 4.52 | 0.149 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | 0.334 | 0.397 | 0.44 | 0.87 | Danks – L | 4.52 | 0.311 |
| Billy Butler | 0.661 | 0.312 | 0.338 | 0.94 | Chen – L | 2.67 | 0.253 |
| Buster Posey | 0.972 | 0.336 | 0.399 | 0.92 | Leake – R | 2.79 | 0.313 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.448 | 0.298 | 0.349 | 1.11 | De La Rosa – L | 3.12 | 0.268 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.625 | 0.285 | 0.309 | 0.96 | Leake – R | 2.79 | 0.253 |
| Adam Jones | 0.774 | 0.324 | 0.354 | 0.94 | Santana – R | 3.18 | 0.314 |
- Wil Myers is basically the hottest hitter on the planet guiding the hottest team right now. He has 6 multiple hit games in his last 6 and is pounding out extra bases as well. He faces Doubront in Fenway and he should be able to take advantage of the lefty tonight.
- Jose Reyes is another player who is on fire but his team is going in the opposite direction as Myers’. Reyes is also having multiple hit games and is stealing bases recently which is a huge boost to his fantasy value. He faces Nolasco who Reyes has a pretty decent history against going for a .340 average and .963 OPS in 47 at bats.
- It just feels like a bad day for Pettitte today and a good day for Adrian Beltre just by looking at this game. Beltre is hitting at home and is crushing left handers to a .330 average this year. Pettitte also has given up a .810 OPS to right handers this year and has not been that great of an option for the Yankees. I think Beltre goes for at least 1 homer today against the 41 year old.
- Austin Jackson made the avoid list in the 2 previous days, but makes the target today against a lefty as well. Jackson cannot hit against left handers this year but after facing 3 in a row he should be in a bit of a groove. He has 2 hits in the last 2 games and Danks is the worst lefty of the 3. Jackson also has a positive history against Danks racking up a .400 average and 1.203 OPS.
- Matt Tuiasosopo is another Tiger who I love tonight. He was hitting 3rd in the order and playing 3rd with the absence of Cabrera. He did not have the best game, but has accumulated some nice stats against left handers this year. Tuiasosopo is a great play almost everywhere due to his low salary and hitting 3rd in this powerful Tigers lineup. Do not hesitate to plug him in.
- Billy Butler has totally owned Chen in their short history going 5 for 9 with 1 double 1 triple and 2 homers equaling out to a 2.111 OPS. Butler always crushes left handers and most of his power comes from hitting against left handers. Even though most of the Kansas City hitters are not my favorite today, Butler looks like a solid play everywhere.
- While Buster Posey excels against left handers, he still makes a solid play against right handed pitching once in a while. I like him tonight against Leake not only because of his .500 average and 1.375 OPS in 8 at bats but because the Giants have had success against Leake as a team. Posey should be a bit cheaper on a site like Draftstreet who adjusts their prices by handedness, and should produce a nice stat line.
- I thought the Giancarlo Stanton in Coors Field magic had worn off, but it looks like it is still alive and well as he hit a homer in his last at bat last night. Go ahead and spend for him again today, as he gets a nice matchup against De La Rosa, and the Marlins seem to have a bit of life after failing to score for a long time. Stanton is pretty cheap everywhere for the kind of power that he possesses.
- Pablo Sandoval is really cheap on a site like FanDuel right now because of the Giants struggles. Here he has a solid matchup against Leake who he has owned to the tune of 7 for 10 with 2 homers and a 2.227 OPS. Sandoval apparently has Leake’s number along with the rest of the Giants, and makes a solid 3b play tonight.
- Adam Jones and Ervin Santana are 2 of the reverse splits who I am taking note of today. The Orioles have 2 right handers in Jones and Machado who have better numbers against right handers than they do against left. Santana has also given up over .100 points of OPS more against right handers than left and double the home runs, along with giving up 12 homers at home. I really like an Adam Jones play today as I think the Orioles could make this game rough for Santana.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Nava | 0.633 | 0.323 | 0.351 | 1.05 | Price – L | 4.03 | 0.224 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.409 | 0.334 | 0.378 | 0.96 | Strasburg – R | 2.97 | 0.297 |
| Delmon Young | 1.059 | 0.337 | 0.327 | 0.88 | Westbrook – R | 2.88 | 0.274 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.717 | 0.288 | 0.327 | 0.94 | Liriano – L | 2.44 | 0.278 |
| Mitch Moreland | 0.505 | 0.288 | 0.338 | 1.03 | Pettitte – L | 4.47 | 0.26 |
| Martin Prado | 1.096 | 0.266 | 0.301 | 0.96 | Samardzija – R | 3.91 | 0.249 |
| Jean Segura | 0.524 | 0.345 | 0.361 | 1.07 | O’Sullivan – R | 6.43 | 0.313 |
| David Wright | 1.031 | 0.346 | 0.392 | 0.97 | Hudson – R | 4.08 | 0.296 |
| Darwin Barney | 0.554 | 0.221 | 0.265 | 0.96 | Kennedy – R | 5.29 | 0.219 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.332 | 0.338 | 0.328 | 0.96 | Chen – L | 2.67 | 0.333 |
- Daniel Nava has not been the best hitter for the Red Sox lately as he is struggling to be more productive than singles. I hate him in this game, not only because it seems that David Price has gotten it together, but Nava is really struggling against lefties this year only posting a .607 OPS against them and is 1 for 18 with 8 strikeouts against Price.
- Andrew McCutchen is crazy good right now and could be on his way to an MVP if he keeps this up and the Pirates make the playoffs. I really do not like him in this game as his price is skyrocketed, because of his prowess hitting lefties and at home, and he is against neither today. Strasburg has not been great but he is still a good pitcher with the potential to shut Cutch down.
- Delmon Young has been good as well, but tonight he has to face Westbrook at Busch Stadium where it is hard to hit homers for righties, and even harder to hit them against Westbrook. Young’s OPS is a bit lower against right handers too. There are multiple other value options in the outfield today, Yelich and Marisnick to name 2 of them.
- Adam LaRoche has been pretty bad in July, with a .610 OPS, and even worse against lefties during the entire year with a .546 OPS. Tonight he faces Liriano and I want nothing to do with LaRoche as Liriano has completely owned lefties this year, giving up 0 homers and a .346 OPS.
- With how good most of Texas looks tonight I am not a backer of Mitch Moreland tonight. He has been pretty terrible lately, and mostly only homers off of right handers. With how bad Pettitte has been, he has still been effective at limiting lefties, so watch out here.
- After a couple of terrible starts, the Shark look like he has gotten back to his good pitching, shutting down Colorado in Coors. Throughout the season he has been pretty solid against right handers, only allowing a .678 OPS and most of the big bats on Arizona are right handed, so he has a good shot at limiting them tonight. Prado has been better against right handers than left this year as well.
- This Brewers lineup is a complete mess right now, and the only bright spots are Segura and Gomez. Segura really has not done too much lately, and without the protection of someone using steroids behind him in the lineup the pitchers can just concentrate on getting them out. O’Sullivan is not good, but I am siding with him against this lineup which almost rivals Miami at this point.
- I always seem to put David Wright down here, but usually I have reasons for it. Today is that he is against Hudson who has really made it hard for Wright in their careers. Wright’s price is based on his total line for the season, .307/.515/.910. Now I think he is not good value because he faces a right hander, and his splits line is just worse than that, and his history against Hudson is .243/.392/.717. In the long run he will not make his value in this spot.
- Ian Kennedy is someone who you rally don’t know what you are going to get this year. He has had some horrible games and some good games, but one thing is constant, that he is tougher on right handers than left. I would not use Darwin Barney tonight as I think there are 3 or 4 other offenses who bring more to the table than the Cubs tonight. Barney is nothing to write home about against right handers either and is just not producing this year.
- Alex Gordon splits this year are really interesting. He is killing left handers and struggling against right handers, which makes no sense because last year was the opposite. I am not convinced yet that he is better against lefties, but he has definitely made an improvement. The problem is that Chen has been good since coming back and is holding lefties to a .505 OPS so far, so be careful with Gordon.