Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 27th
I am a little bit crunched for time on this Saturday, so the write-ups will be straight and to the point. No worries if you did not win any of the qualifiers, use the next month or so to be a true grinder and attempt to build a solid bankroll to either start football season or basketball season with as I guarantee the prizepools for these big tournaments are going to keep getting bigger and bigger.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buster Posey | 0.527 | 0.325 | 0.388 | 0.92 | Rusin – L | 5.4 | 0.344 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | 0.277 | 0.371 | 0.418 | 1.08 | Valdes – L | 7.59 | 0.279 |
| Manny Machado | 0.647 | 0.349 | 0.344 | 0.97 | Dempster – R | 4.28 | 0.308 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 0.433 | 0.382 | 0.332 | 1.08 | Feldman – R | 3.75 | 0.271 |
| David Murphy | 0.75 | 0.229 | 0.29 | 1.03 | Masterson – R | 3.6 | 0.23 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 0.827 | 0.38 | 0.351 | 1.08 | Valdes – L | 7.59 | 0.336 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 1 | 0.367 | 0.41 | 1.11 | Gorzelanny – L | 2.47 | 0.286 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 0.272 | 0.308 | 0.316 | 0.96 | Skaggs – L | 4.11 | 0.28 |
| Joey Votto | 0.915 | 0.381 | 0.402 | 0.98 | Ryu – L | 3.25 | 0.292 |
| Hunter Pence | 1 | 0.303 | 0.335 | 0.92 | Rusin – L | 5.4 | 0.327 |
- Sure Buster Posey has not been hitting well lately, but he is now facing a left hander and we all know how much be beats up on them. He has a 1.027 OPS against them and he gets to face Rusin who is no ace. He is the top option at catcher with a great matchup today.
- I still like Matt Tuiasosopo even with his poor last week. He is facing a bad left hander at home and is a part of a powerful Tigers offense and has been batting 3rd. The only thing that concerns me is Leyland is using him as a late inning replacement, however he is still affordable and has a nice chance to homer.
- The Orioles are trading off homering against right handers, and I am guessing it is Manny Machado turn today. He hits better against right handed pitchers with a .805 OPS, and Dempster has given up a ridiculous .886 OPS and 13 homers to righties. Trot Adam Jones and Machado out with confidence.
- If you cannot afford Posey, think Jarrod Saltalamacchia. He is always in play against a right hander, and in a hitter’s park like Camden should have his eyes set on the fences. He has homered off Feldman before and is hitting in a powerful lineup.
- David Murphy has burned me a bunch of times, but I am willing to give him another shot. He is the typical lefty specialist hitting 10 of his 11 homers against right handers and Masterson is giving up .200 more points of OPS against left handers than he is to right handers (.492 to .695). Murphy is also 4 for 4 off Masterson with 2 homers.
- With the red-hot Reyes playing this afternoon, my favorite shortstop play is Jhonny Peralta. The Tigers are favorited to score 5 runs and Peralta should be a big part of it as he is crushing left handers at a .926 OPS clip, and Raul Valdes is not very good. The Tigers love hitting at home, so stack ‘em up.
- I am not sure what to think of this game. I know Vegas hates Gorzelanny and it is in Coors, so the right handers on the Rockies are looking nice today including Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer has done most of his damage against right handers this year, but in his career he has almost as many homers in less than half the at-bats against lefties than righties so I do like him today.
- Today is my “break out of the slump” day as I am recommending a bunch of people who have not been hitting well. I like Gyorko as he is facing a left hander in Chase, and he has killed lefties this year hitting 4 homers in 75 PA and a .841 OPS. Skaggs is inconsistent and Gyorko should be able to do damage in a weak 2b pool.
- Anyone whose wOBA is north of .400 is always a great option. Joey Votto fits that bill and tonight he gets to face a lefty who allows lots of hits to lefties. Ryu is a champion of the reverse split, giving up an .813 OPS to lefties this year. Votto can hit anyone and is a champion base on balls man.
- Just like Posey, Hunter Pence has been crushing left handers this year to a .327 average and .954 OPS. Rusin is not good and he was stacked against all day when he made a spot start for Garza. I like stacking against him today again with the Giants power against lefties.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Hardy | 0.901 | 0.246 | 0.314 | 0.97 | Dempster – R | 4.28 | 0.262 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.761 | 0.312 | 0.364 | 1.03 | Darvish – R | 2.86 | 0.263 |
| Delmon Young | 0.609 | 0.324 | 0.317 | 1.08 | Scherzer – R | 3.14 | 0.263 |
| Alex Rios | 0.781 | 0.307 | 0.33 | 0.87 | Davis – R | 5.92 | 0.265 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.845 | 0.307 | 0.332 | 1.01 | Sale – L | 2.81 | 0.321 |
| Mike Moustakas | 1.008 | 0.239 | 0.28 | 1.01 | Sale – L | 2.81 | 0.159 |
| Cody Ross | 0.809 | 0.29 | 0.308 | 0.96 | Cashner – R | 3.84 | 0.2 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.666 | 0.263 | 0.332 | 0.96 | Bumgarner – L | 2.93 | 0.204 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.86 | 0.312 | 0.357 | 0.98 | Arroyo – R | 3.19 | 0.286 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.651 | 0.304 | 0.359 | 0.99 | Masterson – R | 3.6 | 0.269 |
- JJ Hardy may be a potential shortstop option given Dempster’s struggles against right handers, but Dempster has owned Hardy in the past going 2 for 30 with 7 strikeouts. This is enough of a BVP to make me very nervous about starting him.
- I am sick of waiting for Carlos Santana to break out and be a home run hitter again, and especially not against Darvish today. Darvish is one of the top pitchers and should be able to hold down the Indians today.
- It is Delmon Young return to Comerica Park where he helped out the Tigers in the postseason the last couple of years. It is not postseason, and he is facing Scherzer who should know how to get the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle out. Scherzer is solid and Young is a bit worse against righties.
- Alex Rios gets to face Wade Davis today who has not figured out how to pitch yet, however he knows how to pitch against Rios holding him to 1 hit on 19 at bats. Rios is worse against righties this year and Davis is only allowing righties to hit .776 OPS for how bad he has been.
- Eric Hosmer is 3 for 18 with 7 strikeouts against Sale in their careers, and Sale is the best pitcher against lefties this year only allowing a .138 avg, and a .360 OPS with 0 home runs. It is looking brutal for the Royals righties.
- Mike Moustakas is really struggling against left handers, going for a .159 average and .483 OPS. It is noted above how good Sale is against lefties and this is looking like trying to hit a 2 outer tonight.
- Lets hope you used Cody Ross last night because he has to face a right hander tonight. His .200 average and .549 OPS against right handers is not what I want to see even though Cashner is not the greatest pitcher.
- Anthony Rizzo struggles a bit against left handers with a .204 average and .684 OPS and Bumgarner is dominant against lefties. Go ahead and ignore all Cubs today as Bumgarner seems to be one of the best options at pitcher today and the Cubs look awful without Soriano.
- Like I said before, Arroyo gets a bad rap for how decent he has been pitching. He had a complete game last game, and has held Adrian Gonzalez to 4 for 29 with a .435 OPS. The only thing that concerns me is that Arroyo is not as good against lefties as he is against righties, but I still have a couple other 1st baseman I like more than A-Gon.
- Masterson is the right handed version of Chris Sale, so I do not like the Rangers right handed bats tonight. Nelson Cruz has hit a bunch of homers against righties this year, but Masterson is great at denying homers. Cruz has not been great lately and Masterson only allows a .492 OPS.