Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 29th
Only 8 games on the schedule tonight (9 if you include Tampa/Boston), but I did not include that one in case your site does not have the 6pm start time in the regular games. Things are heating up on the trade front, so be sure to know if the guy you want to use is due to be traded or not along with the normal things like weather and lineups.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto | 0.916 | 0.38 | 0.4 | 1.01 | O’Sullivan | 4.73 | 0.333 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.729 | 0.342 | 0.39 | 1.01 | O’Sullivan | 4.73 | 0.341 |
| Nick Swisher | 0.913 | 0.299 | 0.331 | 0.99 | Danks – L | 4.81 | 0.281 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.886 | 0.293 | 0.341 | 0.89 | Westbrook – R | 2.95 | 0.25 |
| Everth Cabrera | 0.361 | 0.331 | 0.327 | 1.01 | Leake – R | 2.73 | 0.25 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.82 | 0.315 | 0.363 | 0.99 | Danks – L | 4.81 | 0.296 |
| Evan Gattis | 0.756 | 0.266 | 0.36 | 0.93 | De La Rosa – L | 2.97 | 0.321 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 1.461 | 0.252 | 0.393 | 0.97 | Griffin – R | 3.84 | 0.275 |
| JP Arencibia | 0.586 | 0.266 | 0.29 | 0.97 | Griffin – R | 3.84 | 0.212 |
| Nate Schierholtz | 1.48 | 0.292 | 0.37 | 1.05 | Lohse – R | 3.37 | 0.289 |
- The best matchup tonight numbers wise looks like the Reds lefties against O’Sullivan. Joey Votto makes an incredible play at first base as he is raking against left handers and O’Sullivan has given up a .936 OPS in 22 at bats against lefties. He has not given up a homer yet, but this could be the night.
- Shin-Soo Choo should be a great play tonight, as the right handed O’Sullivan takes the mound as noted above and his bad splits against right handed batters. Choo hits righties at a .600 SLG and 1.070 OPS this year which is just absurd and he is in play everywhere tonight.
- We have not heard much from Nick Swisher this year hitting over in Cleveland, but he makes a really nice play tonight against the left handed Danks. Danks has been terrible in his last 2 starts, and Swisher has been crushing left handers this year to the tune of an .850 OPS. Swisher has been hitting well lately and the Indians are scoring a bunch of runs recently as well.
- Pedro Alvarez 12-21 with 2 HR BVP is hard to ignore today, even against Westbrook. Sure Westbrook does not give up many home runs but he does allow a .880 OPS to left handed batters, and does not strike anyone out which is Alvarez’s achilles heel. Pedro should be able to put the ball in play and put up a decent stat line even without homering tonight, and if he does, it is a bonus.
- Guys like Everth Cabrera who have the chance to steal multiple bases in a single night are some of my favorite guys to use as fillers. Sure Cabrera has been hitting bad recently, but if he is to get on, he can make life a lot easier on himself by getting to 2nd base easily and then be in position to score. His price should have dropped accordingly, and I am willing to gamble tonight against Leake who gave up 12 hits last game.
- Saturday I believe I said I was done with Carlos Santana and waiting for him to rebound, but I take that back. I feel like I can use him tonight profitably as there are not too many catchers tonight who have very good matchups. Santana has always hit lefties better than righties and this year he has a .868 OPS against them. Danks could be on a patch to destruction giving up 5 and 6 earned runs in his last 2, so Cleveland bats are hot tonight.
- One of the only remaining guys you will see hitting without batting gloves, Evan Gattis was a great story to begin the season. He has a nice matchup tonight against De La Rosa, crushing lefties to a .987 OPS this year. Interestingy enough, De La Rosa has actually pitched better at Coors than away from home, and he has struggled against righties giving up all 7 of his homers to them. I just have a feeling about Gattis tonight if Atlanta can find him the ABs.
- It is incredible to me that Edwin Encarnacion can have this good of a season with his BABIP still being at .252 showing he has been a bit unlucky with his hits into the field. He may not have to worry about that tonight as AJ Griffin loves to give up the long ball, in fact he has surrendered 13 to right handed batters. Encarnacion has slugged 23 of his 28 against righties as well and is as hot as they come. Home run lock tonight?
- If you are looking for a catcher and want the bottom of the barrell upside, like usual, JP Arencibia could be your man. As noted above, Griffin loves giving up homers to right handed batters and Arencibia likes hitting homers against them. The only issue is that Arencibia does most of his damage at Rogers Centre, however I still think he brings a nice upside play to the table.
- It may not seem like it, but Nate Schierholtz is producing top tier numbers against right handed pitching this year. He has 14 homers, a .908 OPS, .289 average and has slugged 3 in the last week. There is more room without Soriano so he could be getting into a groove. The Cubs get to return to Wrigley and I like how their lineup looks a lot more against right handers than left.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Murphy | 0.557 | 0.228 | 0.289 | 1.01 | Weaver – R | 2.98 | 0.228 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.546 | 0.349 | 0.383 | 0.89 | Liriano – L | 2.23 | 0.311 |
| Jon Jay | 0.823 | 0.29 | 0.295 | 0.89 | Liriano – L | 2.23 | 0.153 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.666 | 0.299 | 0.285 | 1.03 | Lohse – R | 3.37 | 0.267 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 0.994 | 0.284 | 0.357 | 1.03 | Samardzija – R | 3.94 | 0.284 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.526 | 0.257 | 0.294 | 1.01 | Garza – R | 2.87 | 0.242 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.481 | 0.266 | 0.293 | 0.99 | McAllister – R | 3.57 | 0.228 |
| Adrian Beltre | 0.535 | 0.303 | 0.374 | 0.98 | Weaver – R | 2.98 | 0.303 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.846 | 0.245 | 0.316 | 0.98 | De La Rosa – L | 2.97 | 0.216 |
| Marlon Byrd | 0.816 | 0.351 | 0.356 | 0.9 | Turner – R | 2.49 | 0.265 |
- This could be the time where David Murphy randomly has a huge game but I am not going to be a part of it. He is really struggling lately along with all of Texas, and his 8 for 51 BVP with 11 strikeouts and only 1 homer against Weaver is not comforting if you will use him. He is a big disappointment and not even when he has a good matchup can you rely on him to produce.
- Matt Carpenter has cooled a bunch during the Atlanta series and now has to go to PNC to face Liriano. The Cardinals have the lowest over under of the night at 3 runs and I am really not sure I would want to mess with their hitters tonight, especially seeing how Carpenter is one of the most expensive 3rd baseman. I just do not see the upside with how invincible Liriano has been against left handers (0 HR, .116 AVG, .317 OPS).
- Jon Jay has been a smooth value option since coming back to the Cardinals lineup, but now is not the time to use him. As noted above Liriano has been brutal to left handed batters and Jay has not exactly been good against them with a .473 OPS. I could find other value options with much better matchups.
- Starlin Castro BABIP being at .299 shows that you should probably not expect anything but a meager improvement in his stats for the rest of the season if nothing technical changes. He is not hitting home runs right now and is really not being productive with the bat. I would be worried at this point if I was the Cubs, but you really have no choice but to stick it out. There are other shortstops around the same price point like Andrelton Simmons with much better matchups.
- Jonathan Lucroy has become a top priced option at catcher with his hot hitting recently, but with the loss of Braun, I do not know how he can keep it up. Samardzija toes the rubber against Lucroy tonight and I would rather be on the Shark’s side rather than the Brewers as this is a battle of 2 of the worst teams in baseball.
- Not even Josh Hamilton numbers against right handers are good this year, which is pretty insane. With how Garza is pitching, even in Hamilton’s return to Rangers Ballpark, I would not want to use him. Garza lifetime has held Hamilton to 3 for 18 with 6 strikeouts and Hamilton is struggling as usual. His upside has been a giant smokescreen all season.
- Paul Konerko is having a garbage season against right handed pitchers, only posting a .596 OPS. He is also struggling mightily recently with a .481 OPS in his last 7 games, and his BVP against McAllister is 2 for 15. I cannot see anything positive here especially hitting in the White Sox lineup.
- Adrian Beltre is going through a mini-slump here having only had 1 multi hit game in his last 8 and only 1 extra base hit during that time. Jered Weaver has owned him as well holding Beltre to a .191 BA and .502 OPS in their 68 meetings. Weaver has been good against right handers as well holding them to .599 OPS this year.
- Jason Heyward fantasy value is essentially if he can have an extra base hit in the night. His OPS in the last 7 days looks nice, mostly due to the face he has hit 2 homers in that time. I am not a fan of him against De La Rosa, as Jorge has been money against left handers holding them to a .531 OPS and 0 homers this year. Heyward is also struggling mightily against left handers so choose another outfielder.
- Marlon Byrd salary has risen with his recent hot streak, so I hope you were able to use him when he was heating up. I believe his price is too high right now to profitably use as his BABIP is north of .350 which is very unsustainable. Once those balls start getting fielded we should see a regression in his average and power. Turner has been effective this year and Byrd is not nearly as good against right handers as left.