Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 30th
All of these late scratches due to the trade deadline are making my head spin and forcing me to change things around at the last minute. I guess it is better than learning that Marc Gasol is scratched 3 minutes after rosters lock though, and causing me to throw my laptop through my TV. It’s Tuesday night, so time for some monster GPPs, qualifiers, and trying to dig up that guy who is going to hit 2 home runs tonight.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Seager | 0.878 | 0.318 | 0.353 | 1.06 | Workman – R | 4.4 | 0.321 |
| John Mayberry Jr | 0.771 | 0.311 | 0.323 | 1 | Zito – L | 4.92 | 0.25 |
| Buster Posey | 0.1 | 0.32 | 0.382 | 1 | Lannan – L | 4.13 | 0.327 |
| Nick Franklin | 1.014 | 0.324 | 0.36 | 1.06 | Workman – R | 4.4 | 0.292 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 1.033 | 0.262 | 0.317 | 0.97 | Buehrle – L | 4.5 | 0.258 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 0.833 | 0.406 | 0.47 | 0.94 | Pettitte – L | 4.39 | 0.311 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.594 | 0.332 | 0.372 | 0.88 | Lyons – L | 5.51 | 0.364 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.535 | 0.266 | 0.292 | 0.99 | Kazmir – L | 3.96 | 0.3 |
| Chris Davis | 0.344 | 0.359 | 0.436 | 1.08 | Harrell – R | 5.17 | 0.337 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.558 | 0.328 | 0.324 | 1.03 | Pelfrey – R | 5.15 | 0.249 |
- I love Kyle Seager tonight, especially against Workman. I am waiting for the time for Workman to get lit up and tonight could be the night against this Mariners offense which is destroying right handers in July. Seager is always in play against a right hander, and especially tonight in Fenway Park.
- We all know about Zito’s home/road splits, and today he gets to travel to Citizen’s Bank for a Phillies team which is in the depths of hell right now. Maybe they can break out of their slump and score some runs for Papelbon, who seems to think that the entire team revolves around him and that the guys who play the other 8 innings are not doing their job to get him the ball in a save situation. Anyway, I am much too excited about this opportunity for the right handers on Philly who should have a really nice chance to homer for cheap tonight.
- I was pretty disappointed in Buster Posey effort against Rusin, however the entire Giants lineup decided to let Rusin look like a Cy Young candidate. Posey still is the holy grail when it comes to hitting against lefties, so I still would not be worried even with his struggles in the last week. Lannan’s history shows a struggle against right handers as well, so use Posey at catcher.
- Who knew that it would only take moving Ackley out of 2nd base to make room for Nick Franklin to make the Mariners offense good? Maybe now they just need Morse to come back to get rid of Ackley for good and they will be a solid team. Nick Franklin has been money against right handers all year and so have the Mariners making this a poor matchup for Workman. Even though Workman has been effective in his 3 starts, he is still green and the Mariners should be able to take advantage.
- Here we go, 2 3 hit games in a row for Yoenis Cespedes and it seems that he is starting a hot streak. I am jumping on the bandwagon until his price skyrockets as he is hitting in the middle of a Oakland lineup which is doing well. Cespedes is against Buehrle, who can dominate the bad teams but struggles against those who can hit, and Cespedes can certainly hit lefties.
- Pettitte’s chin dimple needs to be in a museum, and that is where his pitching game is going as well. Any Dodger right hander is solid in this game against Pettitte who is giving up a .804 OPS to righties this season. I picked Hanley Ramirez due to his SS eligibility and the fact that in previous years he has really torn up left handed pitching along with going 6 for 10 against Pettitte with 0 strikeouts.
- Andrew McCutchen, home, lefty. Those are 3 words that together make a DFS players dream. He is as much of a sure thing at home and against a left hander as you can imagine. He is well worth the price tonight at home against the lefty Lyons who was terrible when he piched a few starts in June.
- If you are looking for a lesser owned GPP play at 1st base, I think Paul Konerko could fit your bill. Most people are high on Kazmir as the White Sox pulled Peavy tonight, but Konerko still has the same matchup. Sure he is old, and sure his BVP numbers against Kazmir are old, but they are still good. 11 for 24 with 2 homers and a 1.369 OPS. Konerko is also hitting better against lefties this year so he could have improved his approach against them. His price is nice, he will not be owned a lot, and if for some reason Kazmir implodes, he should be the one to benefit.
- Oh man, here comes the post all-star swoon right? Chris Davis hasn’t homered since before the all star break, and is not hitting anything right now. His average and salary have taken a hit and he is striking out at absurd rates. I am nervous, but not nervous enough to take him off my radar. He is facing a bad pitcher at home where he loves to hit and it looks like a perfect opportunity to get back on track.
- Mike Pelfrey has been pretty bad this year, but overall his numbers are not that much worse than his career numbers. He is a guy you can count on to give up runs no matter the batter. Alex Gordon has been no superstar lately, but brings some power to the table for a cheaper price. I am looking at KC to do some damage tonight against Minnesota and like Gordon to do it.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.845 | 0.344 | 0.399 | 0.98 | Hernandez – R | 4.92 | 0.309 |
| Carlos Quentin | 0.833 | 0.3 | 0.373 | 0.89 | Latos – R | 3.39 | 0.275 |
| Jayson Werth | 0.962 | 0.347 | 0.381 | 1.1 | Sanchez – R | 2.68 | 0.299 |
| Mitch Moreland | 0.271 | 0.268 | 0.317 | 1.01 | Wilson – L | 3.18 | 0.252 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.771 | 0.288 | 0.324 | 0.94 | Greinke – R | 3.49 | 0.242 |
| Jason Castro | 0.549 | 0.328 | 0.335 | 1.08 | Chen – L | 2.78 | 0.191 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.608 | 0.261 | 0.295 | 1.01 | Holland – L | 3.06 | 0.171 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.255 | 0.284 | 0.313 | 1.01 | Santana – R | 3.06 | 0.218 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 1.083 | 0.381 | 0.355 | 1.1 | Strasburg – R | 2.85 | 0.287 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 0.745 | 0.382 | 0.333 | 1.06 | Saunders – L | 4.48 | 0.219 |
- I may get a bit of flak for saying to avoid Paul Goldschmidt today due to Hernandez’ home run problems, but looking closer, Hernandez has actually been good against right handers this year and only allowed 5 homers against them. While he gives up about 1 homer per game, he is consistent and usually only allows 3 runs so the upside could be limited.
- With one of the top pitching options tonight facing him, I would not want to use Carlos Quentin. He is just average right now, and is not doing anything spectacular. Latos has dominated the Padres before, and is not giving up home runs on the road or against right handers.
- Jayson Werth has been hitting well for the Nationals recently, but that is about to come to a complete halt. He has my favorite BVP of the day with 5 hits in 30 at bats against Sanchez. The real kicker in this one is that he has struck out 19 times making it almost a 66% chance of him striking out. It is obvious he does not see Sanchez’ pitches very well, and Anibal has been good since coming off the DL.
- Ron Washington said that he was probably going to sit Mitch Moreland 2 of the next 3 games so I would not be surprised if he did one of them tonight. If he is in the lineup, do not play him anyways. He is ice cold and Wilson has been very good lately. Wilson is really limiting what left handers can do and Moreland is struggling.
- Welcome back to the Bronx, Alfonso Soriano. Now instead of hitting in one of the most feared lineups, you get to clean up and have the likes of Wells, Lillibridge, Hafner and Stewart hitting behind you. The pitchers like Greinke will have no reason to throw Soriano anything, and if they do, Soriano cannot hit right handers. It helps when he plays in Yankee Stadium but I do not think he will be good playing in Dodger Stadium against Greinke who he is 6 for 21 of with 0 homers.
- One of the brighter spots in the Astros lineup, Jason Castro, has to hit against a lefty today who he has a .639 OPS off of. I am a big fan of Chen tonight and think he has done very good work since coming off the DL. I will not use any Astros (no surprise) but especially not Castro as he is sometimes a good value catcher option.
- I see no reason to risk using Josh Hamilton tonight. The lefty on lefty crime is never good for Josh as he is hitting at a .462 clip against lefties this year and has never really been great at them. His return to Rangers town has not made him any better, so there is no reason to think he will be tonight against Holland.
- I would normally think that Trevor Plouffe is a solid option tonight due to Santana’s reverse splits, however he is struggling so much right now to even make contact with the ball that it looks bleak. He does not hit for average against right handers as evidenced by his .218 average, and Santana has been really solid. The Twins lineup is a mess and Santana should be able to keep it in check.
- Part of Jhonny Peralta recent surge has been facing the terrible Phillies pitchers where he really crushed them in that series. The Tigers get their first look at Strasburg tonight, and it makes me a bit nervous, especially for Peralta, whose strength this year has been against lefties. Peralta is only hitting .762 OPS against righties and I like some other shortstops more.
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia as I said is never really in play against a left hander. He just struggles consistently against them and his career numbers are bad against them. He cannot even stay hitting left handed either as Saunders really holds left handed hitters down so he will have to try to hit right handed which may not work out so well in Fenway.