Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 31st
I apologize for getting this up so late, my original plan was to wait a bit for any potential trades, however my dog had a vet appointment that ran a bit long so we are getting this up a bit later than normal. Lots of trades and weather problems so lets get right to it.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Young | 0.686 | 0.312 | 0.339 | 1 | Gaudin – R | 2.77 | 0.298 |
| Raul Ibanez | 0.282 | 0.268 | 0.359 | 1.06 | Lackey – R | 3.19 | 0.257 |
| Wil Myers | 1.227 | 0.386 | 0.384 | 0.95 | Miley – L | 3.86 | 0.306 |
| Jason Kubel | 0.297 | 0.307 | 0.285 | 1.01 | Hellickson – R | 4.48 | 0.244 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.794 | 0.307 | 0.359 | 0.98 | Williams – R | 4.85 | 0.266 |
| Mike Trout | 1.185 | 0.374 | 0.417 | 0.98 | Perez – L | 4.37 | 0.343 |
| Matt Wieters | 0.625 | 0.254 | 0.311 | 0.99 | Oberholtzer – L | 7.36 | 0.257 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.442 | 0.321 | 0.345 | 1.03 | Iwakuma – R | 2.87 | 0.291 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.588 | 0.313 | 0.353 | 0.98 | Kuroda – R | 2.51 | 0.308 |
| JJ Hardy | 0.654 | 0.249 | 0.314 | 0.99 | Oberholtzer – L | 7.36 | 0.217 |
- Michael Young homered last night and gets to hit against Gaudin today. There are a couple of reasons that I like him tonight. First, he is hitting better against righties this year with a .770 OPS and a BVP of 15 for 33 against Gaudin with 3 homers which is a better home run rate than he usually has. Gaudin was good until last time out, and I would think he would be regressing back to his career numbers.
- Raul Ibanez is another BVP based pick tonight going 22 for 57 with only 5 strikeouts against Lackey. He hits right handers better than lefties and has a really solid chance to do some damage in Fenway. He does not have many homers against Lackey, however his power stroke has only just developed and the previous BVP was when he was less of a home run hitter.
- Wil Myers is totally out of control right now. He is putting up nice fantasy points in every game and has the homer power to put up that monster game. I do not even think a rejuvenated Miley can stand up to him in Tropicana as Miley has given up 13 homers to right handed batters this year.
- Be careful with this pick, as he is rumored to be in some trades tonight, however if you want to punt a position, he is absolutely dirt cheap on every lineup. He still has nice power even though he hasn’t shown it this year and always hits well against right handers. Hellickson is good, but like I said if you want to punt a position, Kubel is almost minimum salary everywhere with HR potential.
- Nelson Cruz has an absolute beast of a BVP against Williams going 9 for 15 with 3 homers and a 1.892 OPS. Cruz has hit 20 homers off of right handers this year so I am not worried about the R/R matchup.
- Mike Trout is having another great season and no one is talking about him this year. He is hitting at a .998 OPS against left handers and Perez has been lit up in each of his last 3 starts. Perez is allowing a .848 OPS against right handers so all Angels righties are in play today.
- Could Bedard be traded? He was scratched from his start for Oberholtzer tonight, and while Wieters was a solid play against Bedard, I think he makes even a better play against Oberholtzer who has been bad this year. Wieters has hit lefties with a higher OPS consistently over right handers, and should have a bunch of RBI opportunites in this lineups.
- Dustin Pedroia salary has hit rock bottom in my opinion yesterday with his terrible last few days, however he hit a homer last night in a nice matchup, and I think he has another nice matchup tonight against Iwakuma. Pedroia never has minded hitting against right handers, posting similar numbers to lefties, and Iwakuma is a bit worse against righties this year giving up double the homers in less at bats.
- This is the Dodgers that we expected when they made all of those trades to acquire a bunch of stars. Now they are winning and Adrian Gonzalez is a big part of that. Although he hasn’t been hitting well in the last week, he is still having a nice July and has good splits against Kuroda going 12 for 35 with 3 homers. He has homered 13 of his 15 times off righties this year and has a .869 OPS so feel free to use him in this lineup.
- JJ Hardy is a shortstop you can use who has homer power that is one of the cheapest options out there. He faces Oberholtzer and I think that this could be a rout for the Orioles tonight giving Hardy some big upside for cheap.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Craig | 0.287 | 0.368 | 0.362 | 0.88 | Locke – L | 2.15 | 0.325 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.776 | 0.333 | 0.374 | 0.88 | Wainwright – R | 2.51 | 0.291 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 1.494 | 0.313 | 0.38 | 0.9 | Mejia – R | 0 | 0.25 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 1 | 0.216 | 0.26 | 1.03 | Jackson – R | 4.89 | 0.217 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.59 | 0.306 | 0.374 | 0.98 | Kershaw – L | 1.96 | 0.274 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.794 | 0.311 | 0.359 | 0.99 | Quintana – L | 3.55 | 0.297 |
| Buster Posey | 0.077 | 0.32 | 0.382 | 1 | Kendrick – R | 3.96 | 0.3 |
| Justin Upton | 0.666 | 0.308 | 0.342 | 0.93 | Chatwood – R | 2.48 | 0.252 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.485 | 0.292 | 0.279 | 1.03 | Peralta – R | 4.54 | 0.259 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.793 | 0.346 | 0.338 | 0.98 | Kershaw – L | 1.96 | 0.26 |
- Oh my, no hits in 22 at bats for Allen Craig and the Cardinals are struggling right now. Locke is not the guy that I want to see if I am Craig as he has been brutal against right handers allowing only a .597 OPS. I do not know if I would want to take any Cardinals tonight especially with Molina hitting the DL.
- My guy who hit a homer for me with the profile pick tonight goes to the avoid list tonight. I am not high on him today as I am looking at this game as a pitchers duel. Wainwright, the ace of the Cardinals pitches for them and boy do they need a stopper. McCutchen will be very expensive and he is not as good against righies as lefties. This could be an ugly game for batters.
- I think it is time to jump off the Giancarlo Stanton bandwagon, as he has to face someone he has never faced before. Mejia was impressive in his first start and the Mets keep churning out impressive pitching prospects. Stanton has done a ton of damage against lefties in his hot streak, so facing a right hander could be bad tonight.
- Yuniesky Betancourt is back on the radar of us fantasy players with his big last week or so. I would advise against using him today as his record against Jackson is very unimpressive going 4 for 29 with a .360 OPS. He does have some power and is dirt cheap, however the Brewers are a mess and their offense really is not worth messing around with.
- For how good Robinson Cano is, it really does matter if he faces a left hander or right hander. To get full value out of his salary, I want to use him against a righty, and tonight he faces Kershaw, who is the best lefty. Kershaw just does not allow left handers to do anything, so I would avoid Cano at all costs.
- Carlos Santana power has waned since the first month of the season, and he has only hit 1 homer in the entire month of July. He is hitting ok right now, but against Quintana today I would advise against using him. Quintana matches up well against the Indians and also has only given up a .658 OPS against right handers this year which is the side Santana will be hitting from.
- Buster Posey must have been sick all last week to continue hitting as terrible as he has. He is back in the lineup tonight against a right hander, and his price has not even dropped low enough to where I would use him against a right hander. I am not convinced he is over his “illness” and would recommended fading him tonight.
- Watching Chatwood pitch, you would never think he could be having the season he is having, especially in Coors. He has had 1 start in his last 11 where he has let in over 2 ER, and he has allowed only 3 home runs all season. He struck out a high 11 batters last time out, granted it was against the terrible Brewers, however I would still avoid the Braves tonight. Justin Upton really does not look like a gamble that I want to take with how good Chatwood has been and how average Upton has been recently.
- I am about to start taking bets at even money on which comes first; a Starlin Castro extra base hit, or a Starlin Castro mental error at shortstop. I would be extremely disgusted with the Castro if I was a Cubs fan. I do not like him today as he faces Peralta who has been solid recently except for a start in Coors against Colorado. I think you can throw that out and just look at Peralta’s solid numbers against right handers and avoid Castro tonight.
- Brett Gardner is usually a decent option due to his ability to steal bases, but not tonight. I believe he is going to find it very hard to get on base against Kershaw who is great at limiting left handed batters. Kershaw’s .362 OPS against left handers is just absurd, and he clearly makes the top pitching option tonight.