Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 11th
It is Tuesday, so time to break out the Grinders research tools and get to work. There are hardly any weather concerns tonight, and some pitchers pitching who really like getting beat up by the opposite hand. Hmm. Anyways, lets get right to the plays.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.714 | 0.329 | 0.376 | 1.02 | Holland – L | 2.82 | 0.297 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.902 | 0.379 | 0.458 | 0.96 | Davis – R | 5.66 | 0.343 |
| Mark Teixeira | 0.823 | 0.176 | 0.29 | 0.9 | Colon – R | 3.14 | 0.091 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.974 | 0.325 | 0.356 | 0.98 | Norris – R | 3.43 | 0.325 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.906 | 0.323 | 0.319 | 0.99 | Cingrani – L | 3.27 | 0.333 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.721 | 0.347 | 0.335 | 1.09 | Garza – R | 4.03 | 0.251 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.121 | 0.352 | 0.418 | 0.97 | Haren – R | 5.45 | 0.29 |
| Matt Carpenter | 1.158 | 0.368 | 0.391 | 0.89 | Hefner – R | 4.36 | 0.353 |
| Everth Cabrera | 0.929 | 0.35 | 0.345 | 1.07 | Hudson – R | 4.48 | 0.243 |
| Jason Heyward | 1.159 | 0.224 | 0.308 | 1.07 | Cashner – R | 3.68 | 0.233 |
- Carlos Santana will again be a nice option at the catcher position against Texas tonight. His homers are down but he has doubled 3 times in the last 2 games showing that he still has some power. He is 6 for 16 with 2 dingers against Holland in their career.
- To get value out of Miguel Cabrera, he really has to homer, and I think he does that tonight. His home runs come mostly off of right handers, and he gets Davis tonight who has been horrible. Yes, Davis has been slightly better against righties this year, but in his career he shows no difference and it usually does not matter to Cabrera.
- At some point, Mark Teixeira is going to start hitting the ball and raising his average back to his career .278. With him only hitting home runs this season, it has kept his price down a bit so that he is still affordable. I like him and the other Yankees today even against Colon who has been respectable this year.
- One of the hotter hitters that no one talks about is Kyle Seager. He had a solid 11 game hitting streak going into last game against the Astros, and should be able to start a new one tonight against Norris. He makes for an interesting option and a gut pick tonight.
- The one guy that can get to Cingrani tonight is Alfonso Soriano. He is hitting well in the last 7 days, and is crushing left handers this year. In his meetings before with Cingrani, he has homered twice in 6 at bats and has avoided striking out at all against him.
- Another gut pick is Jay Bruce. He has not been that hot, but I am loving the left handed bats of the Reds against Matt Garza tonight. Garza has pitched well at home, but is struggling against left handers this year, and Bruce has 2 homers in 14 tries in their history.
- There is nothing to dislike about Haren pitching in Coors, except, maybe Dan Haren. Haren has a penchant for getting lit up this year, and him pitching at Coors is just asking to be stacked against. He is probably on a short leash though, so this may be one of those times when you really look at bullpen strength. Carlos Gonzalez has the best matchup out of all of the Rockies hitters including going 7 for 18 with 3 homers and a 1.476 OPS in their careers.
- Matt Carpenter is on a tear right now and he gets the perfect pitcher to keep it going. Jeremy Hefner has been horrible against left handers this year, giving up a .980 OPS against them. I don’t know if I can leave Carpenter off any lineup with how hot he has been.
- Everth Cabrera is turning into a fantasy stud. He is stealing a ton of bases, and his bat has really found a groove in the last month. He should be batting at the top of the order in Petco, which has been nice to left handers this year, and facing Hudson who has really struggled away from Turner field.
- Jason Heyward continued his resurgence last night hitting 2 home runs against the Padres. I will continue to use him while his price stays low as he gets another nice matchup with Cashner in Petco. I really feel good about him homering again tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.907 | 0.353 | 0.38 | 0.96 | Lester – L | 3.6 | 0.338 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.981 | 0.37 | 0.381 | 0.96 | Hernandez – R | 5.03 | 0.311 |
| Russell Martin | 0.835 | 0.263 | 0.338 | 0.88 | Lincecum – R | 4.75 | 0.241 |
| Chase Headley | 0.421 | 0.274 | 0.305 | 0.88 | Hudson – R | 4.48 | 0.244 |
| Travis Hafner | 0.856 | 0.281 | 0.36 | 0.9 | Colon – R | 3.14 | 0.248 |
| Justin Morneau | 0.741 | 0.335 | 0.319 | 1.05 | Hamels – L | 4.56 | 0.206 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.285 | 0.188 | 0.241 | 0.96 | Scherzer – R | 3.24 | 0.195 |
| JP Arencibia | 0.448 | 0.263 | 0.286 | 0.85 | Quintana – L | 3.95 | 0.25 |
| Jason Kipnis | 0.624 | 0.295 | 0.322 | 1.02 | Holland – L | 2.82 | 0.26 |
| Luke Scott | 0.354 | 0.253 | 0.296 | 1.02 | Lester – L | 3.6 | 0.316 |
- I usually do not take into account too much BVP unless they have 40+ at-bats. Evan Longoria has 45 against Lester, and has only homered 1 time and has a career .646 OPS against him. I feel like that and the 16 strikeouts are enough to scare me away from using him tonight.
- Dustin Pedroia could be a popular pick to stack on Hernandez, but I am not sure if that is wise. Hernandez is better at Tropicana, which is no surprise, and he has been good against right handers only allowing a .608 OPS this season. Add that into the fact that Pedroia only has 1 hit in 12 at bats against Hernandez and I will look for my 2nd baseman somewhere else.
- Russell Martin has been nice for Pittsburgh this year, but other than his homer 2 days ago, he has not been hitting with much power at all. Martin’s home runs do not come at PNC either, and he is facing a resurgent Lincecum who will be looking to strike out a ton tonight.
- For how solid Cabrera has been for the Padres, Chase Headley has been that much worse. They really need him to get going to have any shot at making a run. Headley has been ice cold, and has only 1 homer in the last month of time. He is also 1 for 13 in his career against Hudson, so his upside is very limited tonight.
- Most of the Yankees have a long and glorious history against Bartolo, but Hafner is one that does not. Hafner is only 1 for 18 in his career against Bartolo so if you are looking to avoid one while stacking them up, he is one I would leave off. With Teixeira’s return, the only position he can play now is DH so I am wary of the off days getting him out of a rhythm as well.
- I cannot stand taking Justin Morneau against a left hander, as he just does not hit them very well. Hamels is the type of guy who can put his bad start to the season behind him and shut down the Twins, especially since he is pitching away from Citizens Bank. Morneau has only 2 homers this year and they are both off right handers, so I am avoiding him.
- Some of the Royals have teed off against Scherzer in their careers, but not Mike Moustakas. He is a measly 1 for 17, and has really been struggling at the plate this entire season. He has not homered in a month, and Scherzer’s movement is not something that is going to help out a struggling player.
- JP Arencibia may seem on the surface like he has a decent matchup against Quintana, but the numbers say otherwise. JP’s OPS against left handers is a pathetic .529 and of his 12 homers, 0 have come off of left handers. Also, he only has 2 homers away from the Rogers center, and at this point US Cellular Field is not where you want to be hitting.
- Jason Kipnis has improved against left handers this year, but I am still not sure that he is a better hitter against lefties than righties. Derek Holland has been solid, and in their careers Kipnis has no extra base hits although he does have 4 singles in 13 tries. Kipnis probably won’t steal against him either.
- Luke Scott is another Ray who may have a tough time against Lester today. Scott is 0 for 11 with 5 strikeouts, and has not been hitting the ball well recently. I liked him last night, but he is hitting under the Mendoza line in the last 3 years against left handers, so I would not tempt fate today.