Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 26th
A nice split schedule today, so we have some early game plays and some late game plays today. I really enjoy these days even though there are only 5 games on the day schedule, as it gives a little appetizer for the main course later on in the day. There are some really stackable teams, and it looks like weather is feebly attempting to be a factor again, so make sure you check lineups and rain.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Lind | 0.728 | 0.365 | 0.4 | 1.03 | Hernandez – R | 5.14 | 0.318 |
| Seth Smith | 0.905 | 0.36 | 0.348 | 0.93 | Bailey – R | 3.75 | 0.29 |
| Shane Victorino | 0.968 | 0.312 | 0.32 | 1.08 | Oswalt – R | 7.2 | 0.294 |
| Nick Markakis | 0.885 | 0.298 | 0.335 | 1.08 | Kazmir – L | 5.37 | 0.277 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.899 | 0.377 | 0.388 | 1.04 | Bedard – L | 4.43 | 0.327 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 0.801 | 0.329 | 0.352 | 0.92 | Miley – L | 4.7 | 0.293 |
| Paul Konerko | 1.089 | 0.277 | 0.304 | 0.87 | Marcum – R | 5.76 | 0.244 |
| Raul Ibanez | 1.138 | 0.244 | 0.344 | 0.98 | Gomez – R | 3.07 | 0.258 |
| Jason Kipnis | 1.366 | 0.348 | 0.364 | 1.08 | Hammel – R | 5.3 | 0.267 |
| JJ Hardy | 0.857 | 0.26 | 0.331 | 1 | Kazmir – L | 5.37 | 0.243 |
- Adam Lind shook off his horrible April with some solid baseball in June. Lind has been crushing the ball while Toronto was on their big win streak, and only has slowed since the whole team has been slowed by the Tampa arms. Hernandez consistently gives up 4-5 runs per game and really struggles against lefties giving up a .889 OPS and a slew of homers. This is perfect for Lind who loves hitting against right handers and has a nice 1.255 OPS against Hernandez in their short history.
- Seth Smith is a bargain guy you may want to look at today. He has a nice 8 game hitting streak going, and has a really nice BVP history against Bailey going 6 for 11 with 3 homers in their short meetings. Bailey absolutely shuts down right handers but luckily for Smith, has a bit of trouble against lefties as they are hitting almost .300 OPS points higher versus Bailey. Do not sleep on Smith as a value play.
- Shane Victorino has really been producing fantasy-wise in the last week. He has his monster 5 RBI night against the Tigers on Friday and also had a solid night last night against Boston. I love the Boston bats in Fenway tonight against Oswalt. Ol Roy isn’t the pitcher he used to be and I could see him getting pulled early in this one as the Red Sox go off just like they did last night. This game has the highest over under of the night, so use Red Sox freely.
- Nick Markakis appears to have made Scott Kazmir his personal punching bag, even though they share the same hand. He only has 21 at bats against him, but 10 of them are hits and 2 are homers. Markakis is hitting well right now and is one of those guys who does not hit lefties for that much power, however he still manages to get on base. I like the Orioles to beat up on Kazmir, so as long as he gets on base he will have plenty of opportunites to score.
- It looks like the dam that was the Astros pitching has finally broken and is pouring out runs. After a few weeks of solid pitching, they gave up 14 to the Cubs and 13 to the Cardinals. Up next to be rocked around is Bedard, and Yadier Molina and the Cards lefty crushers seem to be primed to that that task. Bedard has been pitching better, but in Minute Maid against this offense, he could be in big trouble. Most of the Cardinals hitters have some solid at bats previously against Bedard with Molina getting the best of him.
- There are no stats that really make Ryan Zimmerman stick out as a fantastic play today, however I think all of the little stats that lean in his favor make him a solid hot corner option. His opponent, Miley, has been anything but dominant, and Zimmerman hits better against left handers. He also has been pretty solid lately, piling up the hits along with getting a day off yesterday, so he should be fresh.
- Look who finally decided to show up and play some baseball. Paul Konerko, even with his injury concerns, has been hitting the ball really well over the last week. Konerko has always hit right handers solid and Marcum has been garbage over his last 2 outings. Watch out though, because he sat due to a sore back last night, but it should only be one day off for the old man.
- I hope that Raul Ibanez power surge this year can be attributed to his increase in K% rate and decrease in BB% rate, which would mean he is swinging harder at a lot of pitches and trying to hit the home run as opposed to something else that I imagine people are thinking. Whatever it is, it is making him a nice fantasy asset as he has 17 homers on the year and has hit 3 just recently. He likes hitting against right handers, and although Gomez has not been terrible, Ibanez makes a nice play today.
- It is incredible what Jason Kipnis is managing to do right now. He is the hottest 2nd baseman in the league and is punishing left handers as well as right handers. His price is high, but he is producing every night at a position which is usually a bit thin at the top, so do not fear to pay for him as he has another solid matchup tonight in Camden Yards.
- Speaking of Camden Yards, JJ Hardy makes a nice option at shortstop tonight there, especially against Kazmir. The Orioles are going to have a high over/under so Hardy should have some really nice chances to put up some stats. He is fairly cheap as well at the shortstop position and brings good power to the table as well.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Martin | 0.867 | 0.28 | 0.347 | 0.95 | Hernandez – R | 2.71 | 0.261 |
| Hunter Pence | 0.717 | 0.314 | 0.354 | 0.94 | Kershaw – L | 2.06 | 0.371 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.25 | 0.348 | 0.278 | 0.94 | Lincecum – R | 4.52 | 0.239 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.6 | 0.299 | 0.29 | 1.06 | Gallardo – R | 4.09 | 0.22 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.411 | 0.345 | 0.332 | 0.93 | Minor – L | 2.89 | 0.365 |
| Mike Moustakas | 1.125 | 0.225 | 0.256 | 0.93 | Minor – L | 2.89 | 0.14 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.398 | 0.298 | 0.35 | 0.89 | Diamond – L | 5.27 | 0.276 |
| Buster Posey | 0.602 | 0.324 | 0.375 | 0.94 | Kershaw – L | 2.06 | 0.343 |
| Mike Aviles | 0.352 | 0.263 | 0.284 | 1 | Hammel – R | 5.3 | 0.271 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.639 | 0.241 | 0.319 | 0.97 | Bailey – R | 3.75 | 0.205 |
- Yeah, Russell Martin homered last night, and yeah, he has been hitting well, but he has to face Felix Hernandez today, and the Pirates over/under is set at 3 which is almost the lowest you are going to get. The Pirates owned Saunders last night, but King Felix is a completely different story at home. Look elsewhere for catcher production.
- Hunter Pence has been super against left handers this year, but Clayton Kershaw is no regular left hander. Kershaw really dominates these Giants, and hitting at home he will be favored to win the game. Pence in his career is 2 for 29 with 7 strikeouts against Kershaw, which has got to be in his head. San Francisco’s run total is going to be small, so just look somewhere else for upside.
- Matt Kemp is back from the DL and ready to resume his amazing suckage. He has been a complete and utter disappointment this year, and his first few games off the DL I do not expect him to go ham. He has to face Lincecum, who isn’t his old self, but still has owned Kemp in their careers holding him to 9 hits in 44 at bats with 18 strikeouts an no homers. This looks like another Dodgers/Giants pitching duel.
- I want to stop mentioning Alfonso Soriano here, but the fact is, it is too much fun. He just has terrible numbers against Gallardo, 4 for 25 with 11 strikeouts, and has been cold lately with a .600 OPS in his last 7. Not only those 2 things, but he cannot hit right handers, hitting them for a .604 OPS this season. I don’t even think Miller Park can save him here.
- There is no one potentially colder at the plate right now than Alex Gordon. The guy just can’t hit right now as he went 5 games before these last 2 without a hit. Mike Minor is not the elixir needed to solve it either as he has only allowed lefties to post a .490 OPS against him this year, hitting .167. This could get ugly for the Royals real fast today as they are not even favorites to win the game.
- Mike Moustakas has hit extremely well in the past 5 games, but there is no cause for alarm here as he did all of that damage against right handed pitching. He is still putrid against lefties, and gets Minor who as I noted above shuts them down completely. It may look like a spot to take a hot hitter like Moustakas, but it’s a trap!
- This is a bit of a gut fade tonight as I expect he may be on a lot of rosters. His home run rates against lefties and righties are about the same, and although is numbers are a tick better against left handers, it is not that big of a difference. Diamond has actually been better against right handers than left handers this year, and Marlins park has really not been kind to righties. With the way Stanton is struggling, I am approaching this with caution.
- This will be the only time that Buster Posey finds his way into the avoids against a left hander. It happens because the left hander is Kershaw, who completely dominates the Giants. Posey’s numbers are poor, going 7 for 38 with 10 strikeouts, and he has not homered yet off of Clayton which is strange because he will usually homer in less at bats than that against all normal lefties. The Giants are going to have a hard time scoring runs, so Posey’s upside is low.
- I bet the Indians cannot wait to get Asdrubal back, because Mike Aviles just is not getting it done in the 2nd position at short. He finally broke out of a ridiculous slump last game, but he still does not bring much to the table except hitting at the top of a lineup which could score some runs. The problem is, if he is going 0 for 4 in a game, he won’t be scoring any runs.
- It is really interesting to look at Yoenis Cespedes numbers against right handers this year, and really just cringe. He has not been good at all against them, and Homer Bailey is the Mike Minor of the right handed side. Homer has only allowed righties to hit .194 with a .494 OPS all season, and has been really effective, not allowing a homer like his name, so I would avoid Cespedes today.