Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 11th
Let’s hope you used Shelby Miller and Jon Lester last night as those two could have carried you to victory no matter your batters. Today could be the day when a hitter takes those honors as there are some really nice BVPs to look ad right/left matchups to exploit.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
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Today’s Hitters to Target h2. Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny Gomes | 0.829 | 0.25 | 0.325 | 1.01 | Buehrle – L | 7.02 | 0.222 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.738 | 0.308 | 0.398 | 1.03 | Shields – R | 2.52 | 0.377 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.535 | 0.303 | 0.352 | 1.05 | Bedard – L | 7.36 | 0.385 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.688 | 0.333 | 0.349 | 0.98 | Parker – R | 7.34 | 0.301 |
| Buster Posey | 1.273 | 0.307 | 0.389 | 0.96 | Maholm – L | 3.09 | 0.344 |
| Justin Upton | 0.646 | 0.288 | 0.419 | 0.96 | Bumgarner – L | 2.31 | 0.276 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.607 | 0.362 | 0.289 | 0.98 | Burgos – R | 3 | 0.216 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | 0.365 | 0.416 | 0.93 | Lee – L | 3.26 | 0.268 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 1.134 | 0.376 | 0.441 | 0.98 | Burgos – R | 3 | 0.398 |
| Jon Jay | 1.341 | 0.283 | 0.322 | 1.05 | Chacin – R | 2.56 | 0.283 |
- Jonny Gomes is a left handed specialist for the Red Sox, so that means he doesn’t play much but when he does, he has a nice matchup. I expect him to play in the early game against Buehrle who he is 6 for 15 against in his career. He should be a solid cheap option everywhere.
- Robinson Cano was back in the lineup last night and the Yankees somehow scored 10 runs. Here he faces off against Shields who he has mashed in his career to a turn of a .413 BA and 1.169 OPS in 78 plate appearances. He is the best option at 2nd even against Shields.
- Nelson Cruz homered last night, and has a nice chance to do the same again tonight. Much is made about his success against lefties this year (.385 BA), but the real gem is his 6 for 17 with 2 HR against Bedard in his career. The great thing is, he is still at a bargain on most sites.
- Kyle Seager has destroyed right handed pitching this year and is actually having a pretty good start to his season. The same can’t be said about Jarrod Parker who is really struggling to get guys out. I think Parker has a bit of an issue against the lefty heavy Mariners today and Seager puts up a nice stat line.
- A rule in daily fantasy baseball is never discount Buster Posey against a left hander. It applies here as he is facing Maholm who has been good but could be due for a decline. Even though he is pretty expensive he makes as a nice catcher option in the early games.
- Justin Upton has cooled a bit since his ridiculous start to the season, but this afternoon he gets to face Bumgarner who he has owned so far to a tune of 8 for 14 with 1 homer. He is one of the top outfield options today and should be able to post a solid stat line.
- Jay Bruce has my favorite BVP of the day today, as he has gone 6 for 14 off Estrada with 4 home runs. He gets to hit in Great American today which he loves to homer in, and I think this game could jump start him into one of his trademarked hot streaks.
EDIT – Hiram Burgos is starting for the Brewers, but I still like Bruce today.
- Paul Goldschmidt has been helping his team in every way possible the past week, and even though he didn’t have a good game last night, he still produced a few points fantasy-wise. He annihilates left handed pitching and has homered twice against Lee in 6 at bats so I see no reason to stop using him if you have the salary to roster him.
- Estrada could be in for a long night as Shin-Soo Choo is not the guy he would like to see to get his game started. Choo is almost succeeding in half of his plate appearances against right handed pitchers this year and is loving Great American Ballpark. I like him to homer again today.
EDIT – Hiram Burgos is starting for the Brewers, but Choo still looks like a good play as Burgos is still right handed and Choo is still in Great American.
- Jon Jay has been on fire lately, and looks like he is better served batting lower in the order. He gets Chacin today who he has homered off in his career but the real selling point is Jay’s 1.3+ OPS in his last 7 games. He is producing and for a bargain price.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Encarnacion | 0.666 | 0.206 | 0.337 | 1.01 | Buchholz – R | 1.6 | 0.234 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.846 | 0.263 | 0.308 | 0.97 | Verlander – R | 1.55 | 0.25 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.904 | 0.266 | 0.269 | 0.94 | Quintana – L | 3.86 | 0.171 |
| Eric Chavez | 0.84 | 0.288 | 0.363 | 1.07 | Lee – L | 3.26 | 0.167 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.757 | 0.355 | 0.293 | 0.89 | Slowey – R | 1.81 | 0.241 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 1.159 | 0.323 | 0.311 | 0.91 | Strasburg – R | 3.45 | 0.212 |
| Nick Swisher | 0.897 | 0.278 | 0.357 | 0.97 | Verlander – R | 1.55 | 0.212 |
| Michael Young | 0.71 | 0.378 | 0.346 | 0.93 | Cahill – R | 2.8 | 0.333 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.405 | 0.206 | 0.245 | 0.89 | Niese – L | 4.66 | 0.226 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.784 | 0.338 | 0.456 | 0.86 | Wainwright – R | 2.72 | 0.373 |
- Edwin Encarnacion hasn’t been that great recently, and now has to face Buchholz in Fenway. I don’t like his chances of homering as a right hander at Fenway and Buchholz has held him to a .056 BA and .283 OPS in his 18 at bats career against him.
- Asdrubal Cabrera is one of the better power shortstop options you can find when he has a good matchup, but good matchup today he does not. He has to face Verlander, and these two are very familiar as they have 44 at bats against each other, and Cabrera has struck out in 19 of them. He has a .411 OPS to go along with those strikeouts so look elsewhere for a SS today.
- I continue to expect Josh Hamilton to start producing, but it is getting to the point where one wonders if that day will come. I’ll just cross today off that list as Quintana has been solid this year and Hamilton doesn’t usually mash against fellow lefties.
- Eric Chavez is more of a lefty specialist than Hamilton is, and today he may be forced into action as Arizona really doesn’t have anyone else who can play 3rd. Chavez has to face Cliff Lee who he is 2 for 19 off of with 8 strikeouts, and this just doesn’t look good for him.
- Matt Kemp is another power hitter who has disappointed this year, and I don’t want to risk using him today. He is garbage against right handers and faces Kevin Slowey who has been great so far this season. The Dodgers are having trouble scoring runs and Kemp’s upside is low.
- Alfonso Soriano main damage came in a game against Cincinnati where he had 2 runs, and got to hit against the left handed Cingrani. He will be hiting against Strasburg today and he has struggled against right handers this season so I am expecting Strasburg to shut him down.
- Nick Swisher had a few knocks against Scherzer, but don’t look for that to continue against Verlander. Swisher is just 11 for 55 with 20 KOs against JV in his career and even though Justin isn’t lights out at this time, he pitches good at home and the Indians shouldn’t score many runs tonight.
- Michael Young has lost his power stroke so far this year, which makes him a shaky fantasy asset. He is 9 for 36 career off of Cahill with only 1 bomb. Cahill has been solid this year so I would look for Young to continue his struggles against the righty.
- It is well known how Pedro Alvarez struggles against left handers, and is a streaky hitter. Today he has both things going against him as his OPS in the last 7 games is only .405 and he is facing a left hander in Niese who is determined to make up for his terrible start last time out.
- Troy Tulowitzki has been the best shortstop in the game (not surprisingly) for the start of the season, but there are a couple of factors leading me to fade him today. He is facing Wainwright, who has been solid this year and is the ace of the Cardinals staff; and that he is in Busch stadium where no right handers have had success so far this year, so use with caution.