Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 13th
Slow night in baseball, but there are still some nice tournaments out there and money to be made. There is one game which should feature a ton of runs in Kansas City vs Los Angeles, and no real weather concerns of note. Time to break down which have good value and matchups tonight.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ross | 0.99 | 0.312 | 0.313 | 0.92 | Minor – L | 2.96 | 0.4 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.293 | 0.352 | 0.404 | 0.92 | Minor – L | 2.96 | 0.267 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 1.102 | 0.31 | 0.383 | 1.09 | Nicasio – R | 4.72 | 0.32 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.889 | 0.209 | 0.287 | 0.96 | Blanton – R | 5.66 | 0.215 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.762 | 0.252 | 0.331 | 0.96 | Mendoza – R | 6.38 | 0.215 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.646 | 0.4 | 0.448 | 1.13 | Norris – R | 3.4 | 0.276 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 1.3 | 0.384 | 0.35 | 1.13 | Norris – R | 3.4 | 0.293 |
| Seth Smith | 0.428 | 0.345 | 0.327 | 0.94 | Grimm – R | 3.45 | 0.247 |
| Wilin Rosario | 0.388 | 0.3 | 0.351 | 0.99 | Wood – L | 2.33 | 0.25 |
| Dan Uggla | 0.905 | 0.254 | 0.318 | 0.92 | Miley – L | 2.93 | 0.214 |
- Cody Ross has had success against Minor in a short sample, smashing 2 home runs in 6 at bats. He is still destroying left handers this year and makes a cheap option today who has a really good shot at homering.
- If you are going to use Ross, you should really try to squeeze in Paul Goldschmidt salary as well as they will most likely be hitting by each other. Goldschmidt has been on fire lately and will hit one out tonight.
- If you are not rolling with Diamondbacks today, consider Anthony Rizzo for your 1b spot. He is a bit cheaper than the top tier players and has been producing just as much this year. He gets to face Nicasio at home, where his OPS has been .130 points higher than away.
- Mike Moustakas is getting hot now aside from his last 2 games. He had homered in 3 straight until the last 2 games which were pitchers duels. He should be able to produce tonight for cheap against Blanton, who is just not very good, and the chance of this game being a pitchers duel is almost 0.
- There appeared to be some light at the end of the struggle tunnel for Josh Hamilton last week, but after his 2 homers in 2 games, he went back in. At some point, he is going to start crushing the ball as he is way under his career averages right now. He is dirt cheap and I am going to find a spot for him, especially in this one against Mendoza who is ripe for the hitting.
- There are 2 things in baseball that really get Miguel Cabrera going; hitting against a right hander, and hitting at home. Tonight’s game satisfies both of those conditions, and is a perfect time for Miguel to hit one or two out. He has hit all 7 of his homers this year off of right handers and owns a .418 average at home. This is a nice spot to use the highest salary guy.
- Jhonny Peralta is an interesting option at Shortstop today. He is a streaker hitter than one may think and is on a pretty nice string right now where he is seeing the ball and producing. The Tigers have no trouble against right handers, especially at home and should be able to light up some runs against Norris in this one.
- A really cheap option who could go deep tonight is Seth Smith. He is being forced to play every day due to the Athletic’s outfield injuries. He is generally a righty specialist and should be able to get a couple of knocks off of Justin Grimm who was very hittable last time out. If you’re looking for a high upside/low cost guy who not many will have, turn your attention to Smith.
- The Rockies are cold, I get it, but they get a chance for some new scenery today as they take the trip to Wrigley. Vegas has the over under set at 8 which is one of the higher ones of the night, so the Rockies should be able to score some runs tonight, and the guy I think will do it is Wilin Rosario. He made a habit of crushing left handed pitching last year, and has to face Wood at home where Wood has given up most of his earned runs.
- Dan Uggla has a bit more power against left handers than right handers, so when expecting him to homer, it is better to do it against a lefty. Uggla had started to really hit well before he was owned by the San Francisco pitching staff. He faces Wade Miley today in Chase, and while he is a risky option, he is a high reward guy for a bit cheaper than usual.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 0.5 | 0.232 | 0.324 | 0.94 | Burnett – R | 2.57 | 0.241 |
| Rickie Weeks | 0.449 | 0.253 | 0.271 | 0.94 | Burnett – R | 2.57 | 0.17 |
| Justin Morneau | 0.905 | 0.315 | 0.315 | 0.93 | Santiago – L | 1.69 | 0.27 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.259 | 0.152 | 0.245 | 0.93 | Hernandez – L | 5.96 | 0.105 |
| Dexter Fowler | 0.303 | 0.305 | 0.379 | 0.99 | Wood – L | 2.33 | 0.27 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.751 | 0.363 | 0.293 | 0.91 | Zimmermann – R | 1.59 | 0.253 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.342 | 0.219 | 0.302 | 1.07 | Grimm – R | 3.45 | 0.181 |
| Ruben Tejada | 0.519 | 0.273 | 0.281 | 0.84 | Lynn – R | 2.72 | 0.221 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.544 | 0.223 | 0.258 | 1.05 | Minor – L | 2.96 | 0.237 |
| John Buck | 0.255 | 0.221 | 0.231 | 0.84 | Lynn – R | 2.72 | 0.233 |
- Yuniesky Betancourt has coold a bit since his nice start, posting only a .500 OPS in the last 7 days. In addition he has to face AJ Burnett tonight who he has 4 for 23 off of with a .348 OPS. He has a really low upside in this game.
- Rickie Weeks is another Brewer right hander that I would avoid today, as it looks pretty bleak for the Brewers in general. Not only has Weeks been horrible, but Burnett has owned right handers this year and pitches better at home, so a combination of all factors makes it pretty ugly for Weeks and Betancourt.
- While Justin Morneau has been ok this year so far, he hasn’t shown the type of powr that we expect to see from him. During the last 2 years, he only has 2 home runs against left handers, and was miserable against them last year. His opponent, Hector Santiago, was stellar last time out and could make it rough for Morneau tonight.
- When I look at Adam Dunn numbers, I just have to laugh because they are so bad. It’s a wonder that he still has a job in the major leagues, only due to his power. Because of this, he is a sexy GPP option who can be found on the cheap for 2 HR+ power. I wouldn’t use him tonight though, as his lefty power this year is non-existant and he is just too cold right now.
- One guy who isn’t having a good time of it right now is Dexter Fowler. Fowler is just 2 for 21 with a .303 OPS in his last 7 games, and generally struggles more from the right hand side of the plate than the left. Travis Wood has been pretty solid this year so I would not try to use Fowler tonight.
- Matt Kemp average in the last 2 weeks would seem as if he is getting it going, however other things say that he isn’t back. He only has 1 XBH in the last week, is not stealing bases, and isn’t walking. He has to face Zimmermann who just got done shutting the Tigers bats down, so in a low over/under game there are better options than Kemp.
- Yoenis Cespedes has had no success this year batting against right handers, and is not succeeding at all at the plate after coming back from his injury. He is struggling so much, and his price hasn’t dropped low enough to make me want to gamble, so I am not using him today.
- Ruben Tejada has been everyone’s favorite fill-in leadoff shortstop this year as he is consistently dirt cheap and has produced in certain games. I think you can safely not use him today because there are other options at shortstop that are worth more. Tejada is ice cold and is batting against Lynn who is having a great start to the season in Busch Stadium which hasn’t been nice to right handers this year.
- If you are looking to mini-stack Dbacks tonight, I would leave off Montero who is just lost at the plate right now. Montero has been just horrible this year and will not be turning it around tonight as Minor has dominated left handers all year to a tune of 4 for 40 and .297 OPS.
- John Buck is another catcher I would suggest against using tonight. He is just 2 for his last 19 and has only hit 1 home run in the month of May after he had 9 in April. Lance Lynn is dominant at home, and doesn’t give up home runs there, and Busch Stadium has been very hard on righties as I mentioned above.