Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 17th
Tonight we get the first big tournament in DK’s Chase for the Crown II, the Spring Fling. $100 entry, $20k first place prize so someone will be walking away happy at the end of the night. In addition, it is a Friday, so there will be people qualifying for major events everywhere. Lets look at some of the hitters who will get you there.
The hitter breakdown is going to be taking a hiatus from until Tuesday as I will be on vacation, and will return Wednesday May 22nd.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Davis | 1.13 | 0.356 | 0.44 | 1.05 | Hellickson – R | 5.25 | 0.341 |
| Jason Kipnis | 1.172 | 0.27 | 0.329 | 1.06 | Maurer – R | 5.97 | 0.227 |
| Vernon Wells | 1.098 | 0.262 | 0.307 | 0.98 | Buehrle – L | 6.19 | 0.264 |
| J.P. Arencibia | 0.461 | 0.282 | 0.317 | 0.98 | Kuroda – R | 2.31 | 0.238 |
| Mitch Moreland | 1.23 | 0.304 | 0.387 | 1.07 | Porcello – R | 6.68 | 0.296 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 1.353 | 0.341 | 0.363 | 1.06 | Wilson – L | 3.88 | 0.462 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.652 | 0.266 | 0.324 | 0.94 | Lyles – R | 8.36 | 0.263 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.682 | 0.322 | 0.42 | 1.05 | Bumgarner – L | 2.18 | 0.258 |
| Buster Posey | 0.93 | 0.301 | 0.382 | 1.05 | De La Rosa – L | 2.98 | 0.353 |
| Kyle Seager | 1.041 | 0.33 | 0.361 | 1.06 | Jimenez – R | 5.55 | 0.312 |
- Chris Davis is a streaky hitter and could be among one of his hot streaks right now. He is hitting at a 1.13 OPS over his last 7 games and has a career mark of 8 for 18 off of Hellickson with a homer, who just has not been good in May. Look for Davis to rack up the RBIs in this game.
- Jason Kipnis is my favorite 2nd baseman to play right now as he is hot and bringing up his numbers. The really nice part about today is that he is playing Brandon Maurer in Progressive who has just gotten owned by lefties this season to a tune of .358 avg and 1.135 OPS. Kipnis is in line for a nice game.
- I remember this BVP for Vernon Wells from earlier in the year; he is 24 for 50 with 3 homers and only 3 strikeouts against Buehrle. Wells has absolutely destroyed Mark Buehrle during their careers and is always a nice option when he is facing the lefty. Wells is hot, and the Yankees could make a nice stack option tonight on DraftKings against Buehrle.
- For a cheap option at catcher, do not pass over J.P. Arencibia here. In a small sample against Kuroda, he has a 7 for 15 mark with a 1.267 OPS so he has hit him in the past. Arencibia’s homers are all coming off right handers as well as all 10 have come against them.
- As a Tigers fan, I have spent the last few years watching Porcello struggle against left handers. In the last 3 years, lefties are hitting .317 off of him which is terrible for a pitcher. He also has a hard time keeping them in the park and is prone to imploding at any time. I like Mitch Moreland for these reasons and because he is on fire right now and also because he still can be found at middle tier pricing for top tier production.
- Dayan Viciedo has made his career crushing left handers, and gets Wilson here who has not been that great. Angel Stadium has been kind to right handers at this point in the season, so I will have no problem rostering Viciedo here as he should be batting towards the middle of the order.
- Andrew McCutchen usually is better against left handers than right, but I have no problem against using him against punching bag Lyles here. Cutch is 8 for 13 career against Lyles and had a couple of knocks last night and should be able to be found at a major discount.
- With the shortstop pool being so weak at this point, it looks like Troy Tulowitzki is going be the the top play at shortstop many days. Even though his early season numbers are a bit against him and Bumgarner is good, I still like Tulo here for the money at the shortstop position. There are a couple of bargains at the higher priced positions that can get you top tier points and probably only 1 other shortstop that could be top tier points with Tulo.
- Buster Posey against a left hander is a motto everyone should know. What makes this matchup even more enticing is that he is at Coors against De La Rosa, who I am still not convinced is a sub-3 ERA pitcher. I cannot imagine a catcher matchup looking much better.
- I really like the matchup for Kyle Seager tonight as it seems that he has everything going for him, in Progressive, has been hot, against a right hander, namely Jimenez who has been owned by left handers. It just seems like the stars have lined up for Seager to do something nice tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Rasmus | 0.558 | 0.381 | 0.326 | 1.05 | Kuroda – R | 2.31 | 0.228 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.903 | 0.259 | 0.272 | 0.96 | Sale – L | 2.88 | 0.171 |
| Will Venable | 0.729 | 0.286 | 0.326 | 1.1 | Gonzalez – L | 4.2 | 0.176 |
| Jay Bruce | 1.167 | 0.374 | 0.31 | 1.08 | Lee – L | 2.73 | 0.3 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.5 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 1.05 | Buchholz – R | 1.69 | 0.198 |
| Matt Wieters | 0.96 | 0.366 | 0.372 | 1.05 | Hellickson – R | 5.25 | 0.223 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.195 | 0.305 | 0.297 | 1.08 | Cingrani – L | 2.89 | 0.19 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.346 | 0.203 | 0.299 | 1.07 | Shields – R | 2.48 | 0.19 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 1.236 | 0.375 | 0.45 | 1.08 | Lee – L | 2.73 | 0.159 |
| Cody Ross | 0.618 | 0.326 | 0.401 | 0.84 | Slowey – R | 1.58 | 0.329 |
- Colby Rasmus just is not being the hitter that Toronto needs him to be to have a good bottom of the order. He has homered a couple of times but he is cold right now and faces Kuroda who has been good all around. Not to mention, Rasmus has a 3 for 24 history against Kuroda with 10 strikeouts.
- While Josh Hamilton has shown glimpses of breaking out of his slump against right handers, he still looks completely inept against lefties. He has no power against them so far, and is striking out a ton. He now has to face the Chris Sale who just shut down the Angels in a complete game shutout, so it is not looking good for Josh tonight.
- It appears as if Gio Gonzalez has righted the ship after his early season struggles, so it does not look good for the San Diego left handers, especially Will Venable. Venable has basically no power against lefties for his entire career and none this year whatsoever, so his prospects of having a big game are almost nil.
- Lee has not been himself this season but I still think he makes a formidable opponent for Jay Bruce. Bruce is hot right now but Lee has still owned him in his career to a .222 average and .689 ops over 18 at bats. I am not sure if I would want to spend for Bruce today.
- A cold Trevor Plouffe does not inspire much daily fantasy confidence in me, especially when he is facing a right hander and even more especially when that right hander is Clay Buchholz who is having a great season. All signs point to Plouffe struggling here so I would not use him.
- It is guys like Matt Wieters that make me wonder why some hitters switch hit. Wieters is a much better hitter when batting right handed, but he still turns around and hits left handed against right handers. For his matchup with Hellickson, he is 4 for 21 off Jeremy with 0 HR and a .510 OPS while hitting .223 from the left side this year.
- If you want to talk cold, lets talk about Ryan Howard. Howard has a .195 OPS in his last 7 games, which is needless to be said, awful. He is just not connecting right now and Tony Cingrani is not the guy who I would like to see Howard against to break his slump.
- A guy I do not want to take for upside tonight is Yoenis Cespedes. He is really struggling to hit the ball right now and for the year, really struggling against right handers. Cespedes has a .190 avg and .625 OPS against right handers while batting 3 for 26 in his last 7 games. He is also facing Big Game James tonight who has been solid for KC this year.
- At the price Shin-Soo Choo is right now I would never take him against a left hander. He just plain cannot hit them and is especially struggling against them this year. Choo will eat up a chunk of salary due to his great start to the season, but it has come solely against right handers.
- Who would have ever thought that Kevin Slowey would be a solid fantasy option? It is true right now and Cody Ross gets the brunt of him pitching well. Ross as everyone knows does not hit right handers well and could struggle tonight.