Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 22nd
I am back! I took a nice vacation for the past 4 days and cleared my head of all daily fantasy sports. I am coming back fresh and hope to have some solid analysis to share with everyone. It felt good to get a little bit of a break and I am ready again for the daily grind so let’s get right to the split slate today. I used every game in my research even though there may be some weather concerns, it all looks too unpredictable at this point so make sure to check it before you set your lineups.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Moreland | 1.114 | 0.303 | 0.39 | 1.04 | Parker – R | 6.04 | 0.309 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.748 | 0.264 | 0.271 | 0.97 | Maurer – R | 5.75 | 0.228 |
| Prince Fielder | 0.66 | 0.304 | 0.396 | 1.02 | Jimenez – R | 5.31 | 0.257 |
| Alex Gordon | 1.165 | 0.409 | 0.389 | 1.08 | Lyles – R | 6.63 | 0.291 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.231 | 0.375 | 0.432 | 1.08 | De La Rosa – L | 3.58 | 0.3 |
| Domonic Brown | 0.792 | 0.263 | 0.311 | 1.01 | Slowey – R | 3.44 | 0.237 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.364 | 0.355 | 0.407 | 0.93 | Cahill – R | 2.48 | 0.267 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 1.027 | 0.322 | 0.331 | 0.88 | Lyons – L | 0 | 0.282 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.784 | 0.379 | 0.415 | 1.08 | Buehrle – L | 6.33 | 0.36 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.697 | 0.252 | 0.292 | 0.93 | Worley – R | 6.2 | 0.276 |
- I have been touting Mitch Moreland for a while, and I still think he is a very solid play even while his price is rising. Moreland is still producing at a high wOBA and has been hot in the last couple of weeks while destroying right handed pitching. Parker has been pretty bad this season and is primed to get owned tonight at Rangers Ballpark.
- Again I am going to say that Josh Hamilton is getting this thing together. He has had a hit and a run in 6 of 7 games and has also homered twice in that span. Here he faces Maurer at home where he should be able to feast. As I have noted before I am a huge fan of these low salary, high upside plays, so use him freely today.
- Most of the Tigers’ sluggers today make really nice options as the Tigers have hit Jimenez well in their history. I will take Prince Fielder over Cabrera here today just because Cabrera’s price is out of control on most sites and you really need Cabrera to homer plus to make his value. With Prince, you get the same homer potential for a cheaper price so I am going bargain here.
- Alex Gordon has a ton of stuff going him for today, including the fact that he is facing Jordan Lyles. Gordon has been hot recently, and is in Minute Maid which has been very favorable to left handers so far. Gordon has also been really good while Lyles has been terrible posting a 6.63 ERA this season. The league leader in doubles should have the ability for a few more today.
- Paul Goldschmidt may be an obivous play today but I still have to mention him as he is facing a left hander and is in Coors Field. Goldschmidt has been great in all aspects this year and is a hitting stud in the making. He has a really nice matchup and if you can afford him, he will not disappoint.
- One thing that Domonic Brown has been doing in May is homering, and he has another good chance to do it here. Kevin Slowey has been solid this year but did look like his old self in his garbage outing last time out. I would look for Brown to do some damage against the right hander today even in Marlins park.
- There are a ton of solid top tier options today, and I can almost guarantee that one of them is going to have the game that you cant miss to succeed. It looks like the day to spend on the big positions and skimp on the small ones as a guy like Carlos Gonzalez could hit you 2 homers at Coors. Gonzalez is facing Cahill at Coors, and has been on fire so look for him to continue it here.
- A cheap option is Jedd Gyorko, who gets to face Tyler Lyons today who is not ready for the majors. Gyorko is an interesting option in a day where not many 2nd base options look too stellar. Gyorko has been decent recently and is showing pretty nice power for a bargain 2nd baseman. Use him as a value play to get one of the other top tier hitters.
- I do not expect you to be able to use all of these guys but there are top tier options today at every position that have top tier matchups and the one who picks the right one is going to do well. Evan Longoria is the best option at 3rd against the terrible Buehrle today especially in a dome. Longoria is cold lately but does have a decent 6 for 18 history off Buehrle with 2 doubles and a homer.
- If you are stacking up good hitters at every other position, you need to go cheap at shortstop and second base, and Andrelton Simmons should get you a bit of a discount while still providing some power potential. He faces Worley who has been awful and usually bats at the top of the lineup so the fantasy point potential is there.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Lawrie | 0.807 | 0.222 | 0.27 | 1.05 | Hellickson – R | 5.82 | 0.174 |
| Nate McLouth | 0.633 | 0.302 | 0.346 | 0.99 | Kuroda – R | 1.99 | 0.292 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.83 | 0.313 | 0.334 | 0.98 | Wilson – L | 3.72 | 0.226 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.713 | 0.292 | 0.31 | 1.02 | Verlander – R | 3.17 | 0.216 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.599 | 0.281 | 0.413 | 0.96 | Bumgarner – L | 3.09 | 0.139 |
| David DeJesus | 1.106 | 0.318 | 0.377 | 0.88 | Liriano – L | 1.64 | 0.167 |
| Michael Saunders | 0.317 | 0.279 | 0.314 | 0.97 | Wilson – L | 3.72 | 0.237 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.375 | 0.273 | 0.284 | 0.9 | Santiago – L | 2.78 | 0.233 |
| Mark Reynolds | 0.484 | 0.272 | 0.377 | 1 | Verlander – R | 3.17 | 0.237 |
| Starling Marte | 0.572 | 0.386 | 0.367 | 0.92 | Samardzija – R | 3.49 | 0.271 |
- Brett Lawrie looked to have been getting it together, but then he came upon the last 4 game stretch where he has done almost nothing. He is 0 for 11 against Hellickson in his career, and I do not expect that to change today.
- Nate McLouth has been struggling a bit except for his homer last night. He does not have that good of a matchup today even though he is facing the right hander Kuroda because his career BVP off Kuroda is 2 for 20 with a .250 OPS. I would avoid him as the Orioles have been cold and Kuroda has been solid this year.
- Kyle Seager has been one of my favorite value plays so far this season but I am going to fade him today. He is facing a left hander in Wilson, and is only 2 for 16 off of Wilson in his career with an OPS if .347. It does not look good for Kyle especially in Angel Stadium.
- Asdrubal Cabrera has not been one of Cleveland’s best hitters during their hot streak, so he is not someone I would look to target, especially against Justin Verlander. Sure, Verlander’s last start was embarrassing, but he is still the most dominant starter when his stuff is good as proved by Cabrera’s 8 for 47 career mark off of JV with 19 strikeouts and a .448 OPS.
- Bryce Harper has been dealing with a leg injury, but did play last night, so his health is a bit concerning. Which is also concerining is his matchup against Bumgarner in AT&T, as he has actually been terrible against left handers this year. His price is way too expensive for the injury and matchup risk today, so do not use him.
- The BVP does not appear to be in order for David DeJesus today as he is 2 for 15 against Liriano in his career. The Liriano this year is not the same as before, however this year’s Liriano has been dominant in his 2 starts. I would not test him in PNC as Liriano could really be enjoying playing in a pitching park in the National League.
- Michael Saunders has been a favorite play of mine over the early days of the season as he leads off for the Mariners with homer power, but against CJ Wilson today in Angel Stadium it does not look like the Mariners lefties will have a good game. It does not help that Saunders has posted a .317 OPS in his last 7 games.
- Jacoby Ellsbury is still overpriced at most sites and is still not producing. In my opinion he has had a disastrous start to the season and just is not doing much against left handers or right handers. If you take away Hector Santiago last start, he has actually been solid and I would really not trust Ellsbury today.
- To use Mark Reynolds today, you must be crazy. Reynolds strikes out almost as much as Adam Dunn and is facing a huge strikeout pitcher in Verlander. Not only does he have a bad pitching matchup, but Reynolds is ice cold going for a .484 OPS in his last 7 games and continuing to strike out in a huge rate. Reynolds does not have a hit in 15 at bats, not to mention his 3 for 15 history against Verlander with 9 strikeouts.
- Starling Marte has a real challenge that he has to overcome in Jeff Samardzija. The shark has owned him in their brief history as Marte has went 0 for 6 with 3 strikeouts. Marte is cold right now with his .572 OPS in the last 7 games and it does not appear that he will be able to hit Samardzija today. You can safely use another option in the outfield that has a better shot to produce.