Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 28th
I hope that everyone enjoyed the Memorial Day weekend with tons of action, qualifiers, and nice weather. Tonight we get back to reality, as the nice weather is over and just like going back to work, we have to monitor if these few games are going to get played.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam LaRoche | 0.951 | 0.294 | 0.323 | 0.89 | Gausman – R | 7.2 | 0.246 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.941 | 0.225 | 0.284 | 0.95 | Porcello – R | 6.28 | 0.197 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.826 | 0.333 | 0.304 | 1.02 | Dempster – R | 4.69 | 0.268 |
| Billy Butler | 0.597 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.97 | Lyons – L | 1.29 | 0.233 |
| Everth Cabrera | 0.996 | 0.32 | 0.333 | 0.93 | Maurer – R | 6.8 | 0.248 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.801 | 0.288 | 0.337 | 0.98 | McAllister – R | 2.89 | 0.264 |
| Joe Mauer | 1.069 | 0.426 | 0.393 | 1.08 | Figaro – R | 3.46 | 0.339 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.543 | 0.295 | 0.316 | 0.97 | Blanton – R | 6.19 | 0.255 |
| Carl Crawford | 0.976 | 0.333 | 0.363 | 0.97 | Blanton – R | 6.19 | 0.305 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 1.154 | 0.414 | 0.383 | 1.13 | Gomez – R | 2.75 | 0.305 |
- Adam LaRoche terrible start to the season has really dropped his price, but the truth of the matter is he still has some good power which he uses on occasion. Kevin Gausman got hit pretty hard in his first start, and that could be the case again today against the Nationals, especially for LaRoche who has been on a really nice hit streak the last 5 games.
- Pedro Alvarez has some pretty terrible basic stats during the season but I love his matchup here against Porcello. Rick is due to get lit up and it works out that Alvarez destroys right handers. Porcello really struggles against lefties at well, and the 3rd baseman could prove to have some really nice value in this game if it gets played.
- A couple of Phillies have a nice matchup against Dempster tonight, and I would like using Brown or Ryan Howard. Howard has a nice 1.357 OPS in his 14 at bats against Dempster and 2 homers, so he has nice potential to go deep. He is dealing with a knee injury, but he is still playing and hitting the ball.
- Billy Butler has been struggling along with all of his Kansas City teammates, so using them is a bit risky at this point, but I think the drop in Butler’s salary and his matchup against Lyons today makes him playable. He really likes hitting left handers and has been consistently a .300+ hitter with power in his time in the majors, so this will turn around. Lyons had a nice start last time out but is not that good consistently so at some point he will give up some runs.
- Everth Cabrera is the hottest hitter on the Padres right now and is doing everything, power, average, and stealing bases. He has hit better away than at home this season, so I like him to find the gaps in Safeco today and with the left handed bats hitting around him, they should be able to drive him in against Maurer.
- Brandon Phillips may be a lesser owned option that no one thinks about using today, but the stats say that he does have a decent matchup even against McAllister. McAllister has struggled on the road this year, giving up more runs there in fewer games than at home. Phillips over his career has hit right handers and left handers equal, and McAllister has actually struggled a bit against right handers in his career, so the right/right matchup does not mean much today.
- I love Joe Mauer at the catcher position today, especially because he has been seeing the ball really well recently. Mauer gets to face off against Figaro, and all I know about Figaro is he has been terrible in a reserve role in the majors so I highly doubt he will be an effective starter. Mauer really likes hitting against right handers, and this year Figaro has given up all 5 of his home runs in Miller park.
- Andre Ethier has been garbage at the plate in the last 7 days but has a perfect chance to make it all better against the terrible Blanton. Going in Ethier’s favor as well is his 7 for 17 history with 2 home runs off of Blanton. He is pretty cheap and has really nice upside tonight.
- Carl Crawford is a nice mini-stack option with Ethier, and include Adrian Gonzalez in there as well. Crawford has been very productive recently, getting back to his Tampa Bay days. The really nice thing about Crawford is that he steals all of his bases off of right handers, and none off of lefties so I am looking for one of those tonight as well.
- Jhonny Peralta is the hottest shortstop out there right now and he is playing for one of the best hitting teams in the majors. He has a monster 1.154 OPS in the last 7 days and usually hits right handers for a better average but a little less power. I have not seen him very expensive anywhere, so he should be a nice filler option at shortstop today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.95 | 0.296 | 0.301 | 1.02 | Lee – L | 2.48 | 0.241 |
| Jonny Gomes | 0.333 | 0.209 | 0.287 | 1.02 | Lee – L | 2.48 | 0.16 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.678 | 0.314 | 0.294 | 0.87 | Jackson – R | 6.11 | 0.259 |
| Josh Hamilton | 1.059 | 0.263 | 0.295 | 0.97 | Ryu – L | 3.3 | 0.173 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.606 | 0.292 | 0.357 | 0.89 | Sale – L | 2.53 | 0.279 |
| David Wright | 0.631 | 0.331 | 0.387 | 0.94 | Kuroda – R | 2.67 | 0.311 |
| Mark Reynolds | 0.638 | 0.294 | 0.336 | 0.98 | Latos – R | 3.17 | 0.248 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.523 | 0.182 | 0.25 | 1 | Lyons – L | 1.29 | 0.143 |
| Brett Gardner | 1.11 | 0.314 | 0.332 | 0.91 | Harvey – R | 1.93 | 0.256 |
| Michael Young | 0.112 | 0.308 | 0.307 | 1 | Dempster – R | 4.69 | 0.269 |
- Jacoby Ellsbury may be climbing out of his terrible start to the season, but I guarantee the one guy he does not want to see is Cliff Lee. He is only 1 for 12 off of Lee in his career and traditionally does not hit lefties well, so I would stay away from him today.
- Jonny Gomes could get the start today as he is supposed to be the Red Sox lefty specialist. I would not use him even though he is cheap as for one, he is not hitting this year, and 2 he is 2 for 29 career against Lee with a .198 OPS, so Lee has a way to own him.
- While Edwin Jackson has been terrible, one guy I do not want to use for the White Sox is Alexei Ramirez. Alexei has been struggling lately with a .678 OPS in his last 7 and has brutal splits against Jackson, going 0 for 17 in their careers. With the way U.S. Cellular is going, I will pass.
- This Angels/Dodgers series is very interesting to me due to the Los Angeles teams struggling but both trying to get it together. Josh Hamilton has had no success in this young season against left handed pitching, and not much in his career, so even though he is hitting well now I do not believe there is much reason to use him against the lefty Ryu.
- Anthony Rizzo has been a conundrum this year, switching his horrible left handed splits last year to hitting them good this year. I still do not trust him or any of the other Cubs players tonight against Sale. Sale has been lights out recently and should continue against the hapless Cubs.
- One of the coldest hitters in the majors over the last few weeks? David Wright, whose stats look a bit better now after his home run last night, but has still really been struggling. I do not like him tonight against Kuroda and I think there is better value at 3rd base out there, since Kuroda just plain shuts down right handers (.178 avg and .448 OPS this year).
- Looking for another cold hitter? Look no further than Mark Reynolds who has been really struggling, as he only has 1 home run in the last 18 games. He is also averaging over a strikeout per game so if he does not get you that big fly, in leagues where strikeouts are minus, he is really useless.
- Mike Moustakas is just someone I do not want anything to do with right now. I have been burned by him a couple of times when I was looking for a cheap 3b, and he just has not came through. The advantage today goes to the rookie Lyons, as not only has Moustakas been bad, but the whole Royals team has been bad for a while now. Moustakas just is not doing much hitting and all of his stats reflect that.
- Brett Gardner goes to bat against Matt Harvey tonight in the lowest over/under game of the night. I would avoid Gardner and the other Yankees lefties, as Harvey has been murdering them this year to a .132 average and .389 OPS this season. Harvey and Kuroda look like the makings of a pitching duel, so the batters in this game have limited upside.
- Michael Young power has just disappeared this year, and he is really struggling to find anything positive about his game right now as seen by his .112 OPS. There really is not much to like about his matchup today against Dempster.