Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 30th
Thursday brings us 4 day games, so just enough to run some nice tournaments in the daytime. The hitter plays today include a few from the early games so there are some nice picks to use in the daytime. Make sure you check the night game lineups before just plugging these guys in.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.214 | 0.366 | 0.417 | 0.91 | Harrell – R | 5.43 | 0.278 |
| Jason Castro | 1.978 | 0.357 | 0.475 | 0.91 | Nicasio – R | 4.38 | 0.313 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0.887 | 0.372 | 0.35 | 0.95 | Dickey – R | 4.85 | 0.297 |
| Nate McLouth | 0.785 | 0.312 | 0.355 | 1.13 | Haren – R | 5.43 | 0.305 |
| Danny Valencia | 0.981 | 0.188 | 0.358 | 0.97 | Haren – R | 5.43 | 0.167 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.709 | 0.291 | 0.372 | 1.05 | Gee – R | 6.34 | 0.331 |
| Jose Bautista | 1.471 | 0.308 | 0.421 | 0.92 | Minor – L | 2.47 | 0.286 |
| Josh Donaldson | 1.283 | 0.369 | 0.411 | 0.98 | Zito – L | 4.13 | 0.4 |
| Zack Cozart | 1.18 | 0.252 | 0.277 | 1.03 | Kazmir – L | 5.94 | 0.276 |
| Matt Joyce | 0.976 | 0.267 | 0.364 | 0.99 | Nolasco – R | 3.65 | 0.293 |
- Carlos Gonzalez is my favorite play of the day today, not only because he is in Coors, but because he is facing a right hander there who he has had success off of in the past. Even though the Rockies did not explode last night, the odds are in their favor to explode at some point and I want CarGo when they do.
- Jason Castro has been absolutely punishing right handers in the last 7 days and is the hottest hitter on the planet right now. Coors field is just the thing to keep the hot streak going, and the right handed Nicasio is just waiting to get beat up by the NL Player of the Week.
- The Braves are scuffling, but Freddie Freeman is hot and should continue it today. Freeman is 9 for 18 career against Dickey with a 1.439 OPS so he is the one guy on Atlanta I would expect to hit him today.
- There are a lot of things going for Nate McLouth today, he is hitting in Camden Yards, is facing Dan Haren, and is killing right handers this year. Haren is bad, and even worse away from home so visiting Camden Yards to see a hot Orioles team will not be good for him. McLouth should be leading off and will have plenty of opportunities to do damage.
- A really cheap option today who could pay off if he plays is Danny Valencia. Valencia was tearing it up in AAA when he was there, crushing home runs, and as soon as he got called up, he hit 2 homers in 2 games against right handers. He has a solid opportunity today against Haren who has struggled against right handed batters this year giving up 8 HR and a .948 OPS.
- You have to admit, this just feels like the right spot to play Robinson Cano. He is the best 2nd baseman out there and is up against Dillon Gee who has been horrid this year. To make it even worse, Gee’s ERA away this year is 9.97 and the short porch in right field is something that Cano is going to look to exploit today.
- Just like Castro, Jose Bautista is hitting almost everything he sees right now. He is 15 for 30 with 3 homers and is putting up some really gaudy numbers. Bautista appears to have learned to hit for average other than just power and it really is making his fantasy value that much more enticing. Minor has been much worse against right handers than left handers, so Bautista should have a nice opportunity for a solid stat line.
- Josh Donaldson is another hot hitter who has a solid matchup today. He faces Zito, who has been good at home, however is still a shell of his former self. Donaldson is killing left handers and is hotter than the sun carrying the A’s to 5 straight wins. Even though Zito is better at home, I am going with the hot hand with Donaldson.
- Zack Cozart has been on a tear recently, firing up a 1.18 OPS in the last 7 games without hitting a home run. He is a cheap shortstop option who is hitting left handers better than right, and gets to face Scott Kazmir tonight who continues to give up runs.
- Luckily, Joyce has had a bunch of right handers to beat up on recently, so he has been getting a lot of playing time and a lot of doubles as an effect. He has a 6 game hitting streak going and has a homer in 3 at bats against Nolasco previously. He should be cheap and at the top of the Rays order, so he looks like a great option today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Uggla | 0.95 | 0.228 | 0.312 | 0.92 | Dickey – R | 4.85 | 0.198 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.962 | 0.39 | 0.463 | 0.9 | Locke – L | 2.45 | 0.405 |
| Chase Headley | 0.392 | 0.326 | 0.344 | 0.89 | Hernandez – R | 2.51 | 0.214 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.693 | 0.316 | 0.301 | 0.99 | Peavy – R | 2.97 | 0.3 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.481 | 0.314 | 0.293 | 1 | Wacha – R | 0 | 0.252 |
| Adam Lind | 1.18 | 0.341 | 0.387 | 0.95 | Minor – L | 2.47 | 0.167 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.682 | 0.339 | 0.302 | 1.09 | Morales – L | 3.77 | 0.231 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.372 | 0.157 | 0.283 | 1.11 | Wood – L | 2.73 | 0.079 |
| BJ Upton | 0.455 | 0.207 | 0.222 | 0.92 | Dickey – R | 4.85 | 0.136 |
| Ike Davis | 0.475 | 0.208 | 0.216 | 1.05 | Nuno – L | 1.93 | 0.152 |
- Dan Uggla has been solid recently, however I still do not trust him especially against Dickey who is now outside in the wind and should have the movement on his knuckleball back. Uggla is 1 for 26 in his career against Dickey, so I do not expect that to change today.
- I really am enjoying watching Miguel Cabrera hit every day, but one thing I do know is that, despite his recent power surge against left handers, he hits righties better than left and does not homer very often against left handers. The Tigers bats have been stymied against the Pirates in this series, and against Locke they should do poorly again. Locke is actually better against right handers and Cabrera’s salary is as big as a pitchers on most sites so for him to make his value it is going to take a huge offensive effort.
- Chase Headley was one of the coldest hitters before his home run last night, and over the last 7 days is still one of the coldest hitters. He has a bad matchup against Felix Hernandez who he is lifetime 3 for 18 off of with no extra base hits so I would look elsewhere for your 3rd base power today.
- Sometimes I wonder when the Cubs are actually going to attempt to field a decent roster, and then I remember that they think Starlin Castro is their future. Castro has hit well in the last 3 games but still is pretty poor in the last couple of weeks and has to face Peavy today who has been good this year. Unless he is one of the cheapest starting shortstops, I just do not have high hopes for him.
- All I have heard about for the last few years are these Royals prospects who are going to be great MLB players, and all I have seen is disappointments. Eric Hosmer is one of the biggest disappointments and he has contributed greatly to the Royals struggles over the past few weeks. He now faces the Cardinals best prospect arm in Michael Wacha, and with how things are going for the Royals, I would not dare use him.
- Adam Lind has been off the last couple of days, and should be playing today, however he does not have the greatest matchup. He is really struggling against left handers this year and has to face a pitcher in Minor who really makes left handers struggle. Although Lind has been hot, this is a spot where he cools off.
- Ryan Howard did homer last night but it was off of a right hander, and was one of his shortest home runs of his career. I am really not too excited about his matchup against Franklin Morales even if he is facing Franklin Morales as he has trouble against any left hander. I am going to pass on him tonight and really do not expect him to homer.
- All of this talk about Adam Dunn switching up his batting stance to help him has only given him a .372 OPS in his last 7 games and has just made him strike out 15 times in those games. He is out of control bad at this point and I would not want him on any of my teams especially against Travis Wood who has been solid.
- Everyone should know that I cannot stand BJ Upton at this point and I think he is complete garbage. I have watched him multiple times and it looks embarrassing, especially against right handers. He is at the bottom of the Braves order and is dirt cheap for a reason – because he just does not hit. Do not fall into the trap today especially against Dickey.
- Ike Davis made a nice play on Draftstreet last night around 2k salary, but tonight I would not even play him at 2k salary. He does not do well against left handers and is facing Nuno who I expect to put in another good start. Nuno has been rock solid pitching for the Yankees so far and should be able to shut down the Mets as opposed to what Phelps did last night.