Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 31st
There are some really high-profile matchups tonight in the MLB, the biggest being the lefty Aces of Lester and Sabathia facing off. In Daily Fantasy, it’s a Friday so you know there are going to be huge qualifiers on all of the major sites. Check the Daily Fantasy Promo article to see which huge tournaments you can qualify for.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Beltre | 0.933 | 0.286 | 0.356 | 1.01 | Davis – R | 5.71 | 0.302 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.385 | 0.156 | 0.277 | 0.94 | Colon – R | 3.82 | 0.174 |
| Domonic Brown | 1.385 | 0.268 | 0.347 | 1.09 | Gallardo – R | 4.79 | 0.247 |
| Ryan Braun | 0.587 | 0.368 | 0.388 | 0.97 | Hamels – L | 4.43 | 0.379 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.553 | 0.295 | 0.314 | 0.91 | Garland – R | 5.53 | 0.252 |
| Dan Uggla | 0.901 | 0.228 | 0.31 | 0.92 | Strasburg – R | 2.49 | 0.195 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1.417 | 0.295 | 0.34 | 0.95 | Teheran – R | 3.67 | 0.256 |
| Carlos Beltran | 0.846 | 0.305 | 0.369 | 1 | Cain – R | 5 | 0.317 |
| Zack Cozart | 0.9 | 0.256 | 0.276 | 0.9 | Rodriguez – L | 3.58 | 0.276 |
| JP Arencibia | 0.862 | 0.282 | 0.316 | 0.89 | Marquis – R | 3.7 | 0.234 |
- The 3rd baseman I am going to be targeting today is Adrian Beltre. He is still pretty affordable most places and has a nice matchup in Rangers Ballpark against the right handed Davis. Beltre is 4 for 8 off of Davis in their careers and hits right handers better than left.
- Sometimes it is fantasy suicide picking Adam Dunn with his 4 strikeouts per game, but I have an inkling that he homers tonight. He got a couple of days off due to the no DH, but should be back in the DH role and is 5 for 10 off of Colon in their short careers. He will connect with one tonight.
- Domonic Brown is basically out of control right now with the bat and is really seeing the ball well. It does not matter if the pitcher is right or left handed as he is having a breakout stretch right now. I am going to keep rolling with the hot hand here, especially on sites which are slow to edit their salaries.
- The top dollar outfield option I am looking at today is Ryan Braun, not only because his recent struggles have made him a bit cheaper, but because he gets to face Hamels who has really struggled this year against right handers giving up 8 home runs. Braun has a decent history against Hamels with 3 homers and a .988 OPS.
- Although Andre Ethier has had a terrible last couple of weeks, there is nothing that Coors field cannot fix. Garland has just been bad, and Ethier could be in for a big night as he has had previous success against Garland.
- Dan Uggla is a nice cheap power upside guy at 2nd base today, even against Strasburg. He has faced well in their history going 11 for 23 with 2 home runs and actually hits right handers better than left. He could be a solid GPP play as he is cheap and has the upside to hit 2 homers.
- The hottest hitter in the league? You could make a case for Adam LaRoche who has a nice 8 game hitting streak hitting 3 home runs in that span. The great thing is he is still cheap and is performing like a top tier 1st baseman right now. His matchup against Teheran is not terrible either.
- The last time Cain faced the Cardinals, he was destroyed giving up 9 runs in 3.2 innings, contributing to his horrible ERA. Carlos Beltran did not homer in that game however in their careers he is 7 for 19 with a 1.191 OPS against Cain. Beltran has 2 homers in the last 3 games and I am going to ride this upswing.
- Zack Cozart makes a nice shortstop play any time he is against a left handed pitcher, and is one of the better cheap options today. He is riding a modest streak where he has hits in 9 of 10 and has a decent history against Wandy going 5 for 13 with only one strikeout.
- Jason Marquis is not a top tier starter, and has had command issues in most of his starts this year. He is walking a lot of batters and then giving up hits to them. Arencibia only hits home runs off of right handers, and tonight looks like the perfect spot for him to pad that total.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson Cano | 0.914 | 0.299 | 0.378 | 1.05 | Lester – L | 3.34 | 0.218 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 1.071 | 0.31 | 0.314 | 1.05 | Sabathia – L | 3.96 | 0.239 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.66 | 0.352 | 0.328 | 0.83 | Rodriguez – L | 3.58 | 0.303 |
| Carl Crawford | 0.67 | 0.32 | 0.349 | 0.91 | Garland – R | 5.53 | 0.287 |
| Buster Posey | 0.693 | 0.306 | 0.373 | 0.87 | Miller – R | 2.02 | 0.29 |
| Justin Upton | 0.467 | 0.301 | 0.386 | 0.92 | Strasburg – R | 2.49 | 0.254 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.363 | 0.321 | 0.316 | 1.01 | Colon – R | 3.82 | 0.226 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.74 | 0.26 | 0.357 | 1.05 | Iwakuma – R | 2.35 | 0.203 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.45 | 0.333 | 0.388 | 1.03 | Moore – L | 2.21 | 0.3 |
| JJ Hardy | 0.869 | 0.233 | 0.305 | 0.97 | Scherzer – R | 3.42 | 0.237 |
- I got my home run from Robinson Cano last night when he had a good matchup, and now its time to fade him. A .218 average this year against left handers is not what I am looking for and his 60 at bat history against Lester with a .233 average and .577 OPS is not what I want from a top price 2nd baseman.
- Jacoby Ellsbury had a sick night with 5 stolen bases and a good hitting night, but do not expect that to happen tonight against the left handed Sabathia and his battery mate. Ellsbury is 7 for 31 with a .641 OPS against CC and it does not look good to pay for him today.
- If I was Dusty Baker, I would not even think about playing Bruce today. His BVP against Rodriguez is insane going 2 for 32 with 16 strikeouts which equals out to a .125 OPS. It gets really ugly when these 2 meet, and although 32 at bats is not the biggest sample, the 16 strikeouts is very telling.
- Another guy with a bad BVP is Carl Crawford who is 1 for 18 off of Garland. I imagine with him in Coors field he will be highly owned, but he is struggling a bit right now and it may be a good strategy to fade him tonight.
- Normally I like Buster Posey against most anyone, but this Shelby Miller kid has been out of his mind recently. Posey has not been hitting well and even though he is improved against right handers this year, traditionally struggles a little against them. I am going to look for another catcher option other than the high priced Posey.
- Justin Upton crashed hard after his scorching start and is now nothing more than just an average power hitter. He has a .467 OPS in his last 7 games and is against Strasburg who he only has 1 hit off of in 11 tries. His salary has came down, but it is still too high.
- I was really high on Dayan Viciedo yesterday against Wood with the winds blowing out and he put up a nice stinker. If he cannot hit left handers, how is he going to hit against right handers who he is terrible off of. His .363 OPS in the last 7 is telling, and he has a terrible matchup today.
- I have really been impressed with Josh Willingham ability to hit right handers for power this year. Usually his power is coming mostly off of left handers so it is encouraging to see that, however against Iwakuma today he will have some struggles. Iwakuma has one of the lowest WHIPs of all pitchers this year and even though he has given up some runs in the last few games he is going deep into games.
- Carlos Santana strength is against left handers, but with the way he has been going (.450 OPS in his last 7), his strengths are completely mitigated. Matt Moore is becoming the ace of the Rays staff and should have his way with the Indians lineup.
- The Tigers’ pitching is racking up the strikeouts and has nothing to show for it as the bats are not coming alive. Scherzer is going to look to continue that today against a red hot Orioles lineup. I think Scherzer is able to tame the Orioles, and especially JJ Hardy who is 3 for 18 lifetime off of Max.