Today's Hitter Breakdown: Saturday, July 13th
This will be the last one of these until the all-star break is over, so I figured I might as well get it up in time to feature the night games and sprinkle a bit of day game fun in as well. There are tournaments out there to win this weekend, so you better get the money in before the all-star break as DFS comes to a screeching halt.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Ibanez | 0.683 | 0.264 | 0.363 | 0.97 | Weaver – R | 3.38 | 0.257 |
| Andre Ethier | 1.003 | 0.311 | 0.319 | 0.97 | Chatwood – R | 2.74 | 0.287 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.563 | 0.365 | 0.419 | 0.97 | Greinke – R | 3.91 | 0.292 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.919 | 0.309 | 0.354 | 0.89 | Torres – R | 0.51 | 0.264 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.76 | 0.303 | 0.349 | 0.89 | Haren – R | 6 | 0.243 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.717 | 0.272 | 0.3 | 1 | Volquez – R | 0.26 | 0.248 |
| Chris Davis | 0.57 | 0.354 | 0.447 | 1.08 | Redmond – R | 3.55 | 0.339 |
| Victor Martinez | 1.317 | 0.274 | 0.302 | 1.08 | Holland – L | 3.19 | 0.239 |
| Brad Miller | 1.027 | 0.389 | 0.367 | 0.97 | Weaver – R | 3.38 | 0.27 |
| Robinson Cano | 1.062 | 0.297 | 0.383 | 1.02 | Deduno – R | 3.9 | 0.327 |
- All Raul Ibanez does nowadays is slug home runs, which is incredible considering how old he is and the past he came from. Speaking of the past, he has 4 home runs in 30 at bats against Jered Weaver, and had 14 hits to go along with that in their careers. The Mariners offense is nothing to be discounted at this point and have some nice power bats as well to give Raul some protection.
- I am a big fan of Andre Ethier again today as he is facing a right hander naturally. Chatwood has been exposed a bit in his last 2 starts, and if he remembers correctly, he got lit up by the Dodgers his last time out. Ethier did not have a great game that time with 1 hit and 1 walk, however we are still looking at a 7 for 15 history between these 2 and Ethier has really been hitting the ball well.
- If Carlos Gonzalez plays today, he makes a really good top tier option as opposed to last night when he got owned by Kershaw who really has his number. Instead of Kershaw, he faces Greinke who he has gone 6 for 14 off of has 2 homers and a 1.538 OPS which is just under his OPS in the last 7 days before last night. Even in Dodger Stadium he makes a good play tonight.
- Here is an interesting scenario as we have Carlos Torres pitching today. Torres has been absolutely lights out as a reliever, but we never know if it will translate into starter success. One guy I would put my faith in today is Pedro Alvarez who seems to have figured out how to bat. His OPS, average, and homers have all increased every month and he is still hitting well in July, and is still cheap on most sites. If anyone can break Torres, Alvarez is your man.
- We all know that Giancarlo Stanton is a prolific home run hitter, and he proved it last night hitting a bomb off of Strasburg. He gets an even easier matchup tonight against Haren who has just been terrible recently, in fact terrible this whole season giving up 12 homers and a .953 OPS to right handers. Get him while his price is still within reason.
- Yes, I am actually recommending Pablo Sandoval tonight as the Giants have shown a faint heartbeat in the last 2 games with Sandoval actually hitting the ball. The great thing about this Giants awful streak is that Sandoval’s price can be found at ridiculously low rates everywhere. You never know what you will get from Volquez as evidenced by his last start, but I like to err on the cautious side and assume he will be terrible.
- What do I get for saying not to use Chris Davis? He hits a home run, so his presence is required again in this column as his power just will not die. He could be on another power upswing, and I want to have the major league leader in homers on my team against right handers who he crushes for what his salary was last night all day.
- Locked in is how I would describe Victor Martinez approach at the plate right now. Martinez is riding this hitting streak and is getting his bat on everything as evidenced by him not striking out at all in his last 5 games. He faces Holland, and while he does not have the numbers against lefties this year, his career numbers are very good against them, so I would not be too worried. I am going to keep rolling with him until he proves he cannot do it.
- Last night’s game was a disaster for Brad Miller, but that does not take away the fact that the last week has been successful. As I noted above, the Seattle offense looks pretty potent right now and Miller should be leading off again. He makes a really nice low dollar option at shortstop and has the chance to get knocked in by Morales Seager or Ibanez if he gets on.
- The 2nd base decision is almost back to the “do I punt 2nd base or do I use Cano today?” rhetoric. Today I think there are enough low dollar options to be able to afford him and not have to use one of the terrible hitters hitting at 2nd now. I do like Kipnis but he has cooled some and Pedroia is against Hernandez so Cano is your best option here today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.921 | 0.337 | 0.388 | 0.96 | Minor – L | 3.05 | 0.165 |
| Hunter Pence | 0.361 | 0.287 | 0.326 | 0.89 | Volquez -R | 5.33 | 0.247 |
| Ian Desmond | 0.688 | 0.325 | 0.349 | 0.89 | Fernandez – R | 2.83 | 0.28 |
| David Wright | 0.875 | 0.35 | 0.395 | 0.89 | Burnett – R | 3.05 | 0.301 |
| Adrian Beltre | 1.605 | 0.317 | 0.387 | 1.08 | Scherzer – R | 3.06 | 0.31 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.491 | 0.314 | 0.32 | 1.03 | Guthrie – R | 4.12 | 0.241 |
| Josh Hamilton | 1.031 | 0.266 | 0.307 | 0.97 | Hernandez – R | 2.69 | 0.261 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 1.268 | 0.298 | 0.323 | 0.99 | Lynn – R | 3.67 | 0.245 |
| Will Venable | 0.457 | 0.254 | 0.293 | 1 | Lincecum – R | 4.61 | 0.226 |
| Aaron Hill | 0.859 | 0.291 | 0.377 | 0.96 | Lohse – R | 3.47 | 0.269 |
- We are still waiting for Shin-Soo Choo first homer against a lefty this year, so using him against a left hander is not usually a good play especially against Minor who has really good splits against lefties this year. I think that batting Choo leadoff against lefties regularly is costing the Reds some runs that they could have if they hit anyone leadoff against lefties, but what do I know.
- The Giants offense exploded last night but Pence is still being a bum. He could only manage 1 hit the whole night, so it is good he made it count. While you never really know what you will get from Volquez, you pretty much know what you will get when Pence bats against Volquez, and thats a strikeout. He has 28 at bats and half of them have been strikeouts, and only 4 have been hits. With how cold Pence is, this looks bad.
- I jumped on the Ian Desmond train a little bit late back at the beginning of July, as he has not homered yet in this month. Here I am going to avoid him as I think the Marlins could play another good game against the Nationals. The Marlins have quite probably their best pitcher on the mound who has loads of talent and can shut these Nationals bats down, especially Desmond.
- All of David Wright numbers are solid, but I still cannot bring myself to use him regularly, or especially today. While he has a solid hitting streak going, he is hardly scoring runs and he is not driving them in which is part of dealing with this Mets lineup. Burnett has really made Wright struggle, holding him to 3 for 18 with 8 strikeouts, so I am going to look elsewhere for 3b upside.
- The mini 6 homer run with a ton of RBI and hits is over, and the only thing to show for it is Adrian Beltre giant salary. I loved using him during it but now it is such a drain on the rest of the team to play him. He still can be a good play, but I do not like him against Scherzer who is the ace of the Tigers staff at this point.
- Asdrubal Cabrera has been a disappointment for a few weeks now. He did manage to fire a homer 2 games about but that is about the only positive thing he has managed this month. I am also not a fan of his 5 for 18 history against Guthrie, but I am mainly concerned with how cold he is and how poorly he is hitting righties this year.
- Josh Hamilton gets to face a right hander today, but bad news for him, it is a right hander who is tough and who has owned him in his career. Enter Felix Hernandez and Hamilton’s 8 for 53 BVP with a .553 OPS. That is a pretty decent sample and some pretty terrible numbers for Josh, so today may not be another 2 homer game.
- I tried to use Alfonso Soriano against a lefty earlier, and my goodness had his salary rose to where I did not even use him. If it is still the same sky high price I find it hard to justify sliding him in the lineup here as he really struggles against righties and is 6 for 19 against Lynn with 8 strikeouts. I would like to find a more consistent option.
- If you want to take Will Venable, you better use him against a right hander, however Lincecum is not the right hander you want to use him against. I see a little bit of the old Timmy out there now, he just has to figure out how to get people out in the later innings. Venable has had very little success against lincecum batting .233 in 43 at bats with a .592 OPS.
- I really liked Aaron Hill matchup last night but was appalled at how expensive he still is on most every site based on his completely average to below average numbers. This last day did not go so well for Hill, so unless his price has really dropped, I will not want to use him against the right handed Lohse, as he has not been that great in the last week.