Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 12th
A little bit of a short night tonight with only 8 games, however still enough to put together a solid schedule. Some people really enjoyed the 8 game schedules in the NBA instead of the full nights so this might be right up some people’s alleys. Everyone might be focused on the NFL, but the NFL game tonight leaves a ton to be desired, so lets play some MLB!
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.725 | 0.278 | 0.306 | 0.99 | Chen – L | 3.82 | 0.291 |
| Will Venable | 0.653 | 0.313 | 0.348 | 1.04 | Halladay – R | 7.19 | 0.27 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 0.983 | 0.288 | 0.316 | 1 | Halladay – R | 7.19 | 0.242 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.306 | 0.364 | 0.397 | 0.91 | Rusin – L | 2.89 | 0.391 |
| Donnie Murphy | 0.923 | 0.309 | 0.41 | 0.91 | Locke – L | 3.23 | 0.333 |
| Brett Lawrie | 0.833 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 1.08 | Richards – R | 3.9 | 0.273 |
| Mark Trumbo | 1.467 | 0.283 | 0.332 | 1.08 | Happ – L | 5.09 | 0.28 |
| Stephen Drew | 0.272 | 0.312 | 0.327 | 1 | Hellickson – R | 5.04 | 0.275 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.506 | 0.323 | 0.34 | 0.96 | Cain – R | 4.37 | 0.294 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.827 | 0.336 | 0.362 | 0.91 | Thornburg – R | 2.08 | 0.311 |
- What a turnaround Alfonso Soriano is having back in New York. He is blasting homers out at a ridiculous rate right now and hitting left handers at a .892 OPS. He faces Chen who has shown a chink in his armor since being dominant after coming back to the MLB, and his weakness is right handers. Soriano seems like the double dong kind of guy and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2 more here.
- I am liking the Padres today against Halladay, not because I like the Padres offense, but because Halladay has been pretty miserable this year. He has been a little bit better after coming off the DL, but I still do not trust him especially against a guy like Will Venable who has been actually very solid in the last couple of months. Venable had 8 homers and a 1.092 OPS in August and is looking to carry that over even though the first few days have gone poorly.
- Jedd Gyorko is swinging a hot bat right now and should be dirt cheap especially on sites like Draftstreet. Gyorko’s BABIP is super low so there is room for a surge in his batting average, along with him hitting for power. If Halladay is off, Gyorko will make him pay.
- Goodness is Andrew McCutchen crushing the ball right now. It does not seem to matter where he is or who he is against. I am paying for him tonight as his 1.144 OPS against lefties and .989 OPS at home collides against a green pitcher in Rusin who may not know how to deal with him. I am expecting a big night out of Cutch.
- The journeyman Donnie Murphy may have found a home in Chicago as he has really been tearing it up for them since being called up. He faces off against Locke tonight who has hit the regression everyone thought was coming. Locke has allowed a bunch of hits and runs in his last 7 starts raising his ERA from 2.11 to 3.23 which is not easy to do, along with never going more than 5.2 innings. Originally Locke’s struggles seemed to be against left handers but recently they are against everyone and Donnie Murphy has destroyed right handers in his small sample.
- I like Brett Lawrie tonight against Richards even though Richards has been pretty good lately. One thing that worries me about Richards is that he has not had to travel to any hitters parks really, so pitching at the Rogers Centre could be bad if he can’t keep the balls on the ground. Brett Lawrie is hitting well lately and does well against right handers, along with the entire Blue Jays team hitting better at home.
- Mark Trumbo is on fire right now, and as long as his price is lower than some of the top 1st baseman, I think he should be in lineups. He is obliterating the Rogers Centre and gets another game there tonight to cap things off against Happ. Happ has been basically terrible except for his last game, and Trumbo is crushing left handers posting a .957 OPS and 12 homers in 143 at bats.
- I searched for a shortstop tonight but I was really unimpressed by the choices and their matchups. Pure matchup wise, I think Stephen Drew has the best one but his horrible last week is making me think twice. Overall, against Hellickson in a lineup that kills right handers, as long as Drew does not strike out every at bat he should have the opportunities to do well at the plate.
- Another guy who is having a terrible last few days is Andre Ethier, but good news for him is he gets Matt Cain coming to town. Now Cain is a good pitcher, but Ethier does not care as he has compiled a 29 for 65 mark against Cain in his career. Ethier sees him realy well and could be a cheap filler option for double ups tonight.
- I was really disappointed that Yadier Molina could not take advantage of his matchup last night, but it appeared he had more important things to do leaving for a family situation. I hope everything is ok and he is able to make it back as a rested Molina is not something that opposing pitchers really want to see. Thornburg has a good ERA but in his starts he has gotten into trouble and gotten out of it, keeping his WHIP high. The Cardinals are the masters of the big inning so I would expect them to get to Thornburg today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.697 | 0.304 | 0.313 | 1 | Ross – R | 2.79 | 0.268 |
| David DeJesus | 0.635 | 0.295 | 0.321 | 1 | Peavy – R | 4.01 | 0.267 |
| Will Middlebrooks | 1.05 | 0.273 | 0.315 | 0.95 | Hellickson – R | 5.04 | 0.223 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.712 | 0.269 | 0.301 | 0.92 | Kluber – R | 3.54 | 0.226 |
| Michael Brantley | 0.546 | 0.296 | 0.316 | 1.01 | Danks – L | 4.45 | 0.257 |
| Carlos Gomez | 0.423 | 0.341 | 0.354 | 0.91 | Kelly – R | 2.74 | 0.268 |
| Hunter Pence | 1.204 | 0.319 | 0.353 | 0.92 | Greinke – R | 2.79 | 0.276 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.968 | 0.308 | 0.361 | 0.95 | Peavy – R | 4.01 | 0.247 |
| Brian Roberts | 0.859 | 0.272 | 0.301 | 1.09 | Hughes – R | 5.11 | 0.24 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.769 | 0.28 | 0.329 | 0.89 | Rusin – L | 2.89 | 0.183 |
- Carlos Ruiz was a solid pick against Stults last night being a cheap catcher with upside, but I do not like him tonight against Ross. He is facing a right hander where hit numbers are much lower and Ross has been good in the rotation allowing over 4 runs only twice and holding righties to a .547 OPS.
- I am expecting David DeJesus to be leading off tonight against Peavy, but I am going to be avoiding him today. They are in different uniforms but DeJesus has a decent history when he was in Kansas City and Peavy was in Chicago where Peavy owned him and held him to 3 hits on 21 at bats and 8 strikeouts.
- While I am super high on the Boston offense tonight, I am really not high on Will Middlebrooks. He has had a solid last week hitting 3 homers but in the last 2 games he has gone hitless, so all those homers did was spike his salary. He is facing a right hander who he has only managed a .697 OPS against. If you are stacking Red Sox, he is a guy I would leave off.
- The White Sox are garbage and look like chicken feed tonight for Corey Kluber. Kluber should dominate this lineup which appears to have given up for the season. Konerko has not hit right handers all year and is not getting protection, while Kluber has really broken out and had a nice season.
- While I am not a big fan of Danks overall, he does get to face a Indians lineup tonight which he has had success against. Not many of the Indians have very good BVPs against him especially not Michael Brantley who is 2 for 12 with a .397 OPS. Brantley has a hard time hitting left handers as well, as he has not homered against them at all this year.
- Joe Kelly had another stellar start against the Pirates last time out, and is just not someone I want to use batters against. He has been ridiculously good and Carlos Gomez has been ridiculously cold and has also struggled for the entirity of the year against right handers. I think this game could be a blowout for the Cardinals, so I am passing on all Brewers.
- Hunter Pence has had a bunch of massive games recently, but in those as well he had a couple of 0 for 4’s. He does a ton of work against left handers, but not much against righties, and Greinke has been one of the best righties out there. Greinke has allowed 1 homer to right handers all season and a .544 OPS. This is just a horrible spot for Pence and the Giants offense.
- I liked Evan Longoria last night against the reverse splits Dumpster. While Peavy has been poor away from home, he has decent numbers against some of the Rays including Longoria who has hit 2 for 12 against him with a .583 OPS. Longo is not fantasy suicide even with how poorly he hits right handers, but I certainly like a couple other 3rd baseman more than him.
- To be honest, I am undecided right now on if I love an Orioles stack or am going to fade it. Phil Hughes has done some solid work against guys from Baltimore in his career, but he is a total gas can and can implode at any time. With how well the Orioles hit righties, I think I am loving their stack, however Brian Roberts is a guy who I would leave off. Roberts struggles a bit against righties and is usually at the bottom of the order along with being 2 for 16 off of Hughes.
- I am hating Pedro Alvarez tonight agains Rusin, as Alvarez only has 3 homers against lefties, has not homered since August 27th, and is generally struggling greatly right now. Rusin has not been horrible as I expected him to be and should be able to tame Alvarez who couldn’t hit a left hander if his name was Barry Zito.