Tuttle's Take: Week 10
Having qualified for countless live finals, Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05) knows what it takes to win in DFS. In this space each week, he’ll guide you through the lineup building process for both cash games and tournaments by going in-depth and giving out his “Tuttle’s Take” for every game on the main slate.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-7.5) 36.5
- Buffalo Bills target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Kelvin Benjamin 53 (35.1%), Zay Jones 47 (17.3%), LeSean McCoy 33 (-.5%),
Charles Clay 32 (10.4%)
- New York Jets target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Jermaine Kearse 48 (17.3%), Quincy Enunwa 46 (14.5%), Robby Anderson 42
(27.8%), Chris Herndon 22 (10.2%)
This Bills have yet to announce a starting quarterback for this week’s game in New York and…it doesn’t matter. The Bills offense still remains irrelevant from a DFS perspective.
The best fantasy on the Jets is their defense. Picking on the Bills with opposing defenses has been a winning strategy through nine weeks, sans their victory in Minnesota.
Offensively, Elijah McGuire returned from the IR and led the Jets backfield in Week 8 with 36 snaps. McGuire turned those 36 snaps into 7 carries (30 yards) and three receptions (37 yards). McGuire’s role is worth monitoring moving forward, but it seems likely he’ll provide most of his value as a pass catcher, thus a game where the Jets are 7.5-point favorites should mean limited receiving volume for him. The best approach with McGuire is to hope he has a disappointing week against the Bills keeping his price tag low for a matchup against the Patriots after the Jets bye week. With that said, I do think Elijah can be used sparingly in GPPs this week hoping game script works in his favor, or that he uses his athleticism to break a long touchdown.
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns (+4) 50.5
- Atlanta Falcons target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Julio Jones 91 (47%), Austin Hooper 44 (11.9%), Calvin Ridley 44 (18.4%),
Mohamed Sanu 40 (12.8%), Tevin Coleman 25 (.6%)
- Cleveland Browns target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Jarvis Landry 101 (31.6%), David Njoku 57 (14.7%), Antonio Callaway 52
(22.2%), Duke Johnson 38 (3.2%), Rashard Higgins 26 (9.2%)
This game opened with the Falcons as 3.5-to-4 point road favorites and has crept to 5.5-to-6 points depending on the book. I think this is an absolute smash spot for Julio Jones against a Browns defense that recently sent Christian Kirksey and E.J. Gaines to the IR and whose top defensive back in Denzel Ward is battling a hip injury. Julio finally scored a touchdown in Week 9 and his target share and market share of air yards remain massive. Projection systems will disagree, but Julio Jones is my WR1 of Week 10 and he’s someone I’ll be working into a large number of my lineups.
As much as I like Julio this week, I don’t have a ton of interest in the Falcons secondary options. Tevin Coleman finally had a monster week (when nobody played him), but is seeing a near equal timeshare with Ito Smith, which makes it difficult to play either guy. Notably, Ito is significantly cheaper than Coleman across the industry and would be the guy I would roster if trying to take a shot in the dark in GPPs. Austin Hooper is merely a “fine” option at the tight end position this week, but fine may be all you need to consider him a secondary play as the tight end position continues to be weak.
Duke Johnson just need Todd Haley/Hue Jackson gone to become more involved in the offense. Johnson didn’t see a big uptick in playing time, but saw a huge uptick in opportunity catching all nine targets he saw for 78 yards and two touchdowns. This is theoretically another great spot for him with the Browns approaching touchdown underdogs against a team that has notably struggled defending running backs as pass catchers this season. A game script dependent back like Johnson can only be used in GPPs. Despite trailing much of the game, Nick Chubb still totaled 22 carries and scored a touchdown against the Chiefs. On paper, this is another good matchup for Chubb as the Falcons rank 31st in rush DVOA. I actually think Chubb is a superior GPP option to Johnson as Duke’s ownership should dwarf Chubb’s, but Chubb’s volume remains more reliable.
Jarvis Landry continues to draw strong matchups, but is seemingly a continual disappointment as he’s only topped double-digit fantasy points four times this season in .5 PPR formats. Landry is the cheapest he’s been since the beginning of the season and once again draws a stellar matchup against a Falcons defense that is susceptible in the middle of the field where Landry runs the majority of his routes. While the production is lagging, Landry continues to see plenty of opportunities averaging over 11 targets per game. At his reduced price tag and with the Browns expected to be playing from behind, I’m considering Landry a core option as his volume should be dependable.
New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) 54
- New Orleans Saints target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Michael Thomas 79 (31.3%), Alvin Kamara 66 (5.4%), Benjamin Watson 32
(16.5%), Tre’Quan Smith 20 (13.8%)
- Cincinnati Bengals target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: A.J. Green 76 (40.8%), Tyler Boyd 66 (23.9%), Joe Mixon 28 (.4%), C.J. Uzomah 23 (6.2%), Giovani Bernard 22 (-.7%), John Ross 16 (10.5%)
The Saints and Bengals come in with the highest totaled game of the week and surprisingly I don’t love it from a DFS perspective. The already beleaguered Bengals offense will now be without its top wideout for the foreseeable future as AJ Green deals with a toe injury leaving Tyler Boyd as WR1. There’s no doubt that Boyd has put up stats of a top wideout so far this season, but his price tag has risen and he will no longer have Green being the primary focus of the defense. I think Boyd is a fine secondary option as he should still draw a favorable matchup against P.J. Williams as long as he continues to operate in the slot, but I’ll likely be underweight on Boyd relative to the field. Cincinnati does get John Ross back this week, but Ross has yet to show that he is anything other than a boom or bust threat. That boom potential does keep Ross in the GPP discussion. The Saints have been so good at defending the run that I’m not overly interested in Joe Mixon at his current price tag.
Many analysts were worried about the Saints deploying a run-heavy approach last week against the Rams, but that didn’t come to fruition as Drew Brees completed 25 passes for 346 yards and four touchdowns. Michael Thomas dominated targets as he caught 12 balls on 15 targets for a monster 211 yards and one touchdown. This is a “fine” matchup for both Brees and Thomas, but my feeling is that it just won’t be necessary for them to put up the big numbers they need to pay off their price tags.
We saw back in Week 5 that the Saints were completely ok with using a game against the Redskins essentially as a bye week for the overworked Alvin Kamara. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a similar scenario in Week 10 where the Saints jump out to a lead and then grind Ingram for a majority of the game. This makes me more interested in Ingram than Kamara, especially at their respective price tags. I have little doubt that Kamara is the Saints go-to back when the game is on the line, but I have a lot of doubt that the game will ever be on the line in Week 10…I could also be completely underestimating the Bengals offense. Ingram is a fringe cash game option against the Bengals 27th ranked rush defense (per DVOA) if you think he can total 15+ touches. Kamara is a frightening fade for me this week.
Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) 51.5
- Washington Redskins target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Jordan Reed 53 (17.9%), Josh Doctson 36 (21.1%), Paul Richardson 35
(21.3%), Chris Thompson 34 (2.5%), Maurice Harris 29 (12%), Vernon Davis 20 (9.8%), Jamison Crowder 20 (8.7%), Adrian Peterson 16 (.3%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Mike Evans 78 (32.2%), Adam Humphries 49 (8.8%), DeSean Jackson
48 (25.5%), Chris Godwin 47 (14.2%), O.J. Howard 40 (13.4%)
What if I told you, you could roster a running back for $5,400 on FanDuel/$3,500 on DraftKings that has a legitimate shot of touching the ball 20 times this week? You would probably be excited…at least until you heard the name Peyton Barber. The Redskins offer a surprisingly strong matchup as they rank 29th in rush DVOA this season and I’m of the opinion that their expected struggles on offense behind a depleted offensive line will lead to the Bucs controlling the ball for a majority of the game. Ronald Jones is expected out for the Bucs this week and Jacquizz Rodgers only saw 27 snaps in Week 9 because they immediately fell behind the Panthers. Barber is averaging over 14 touches in games that Ronald Jones has been inactive this season. If Jones is out, I think Barber is a fringe cash game option.
My aggressive take on the Bucs running game has me unintentionally shorting their passing game even though I think there is still some value to be had in Ryan Fitzpatrick’s price tag. This is a strong bounce-back spot for top wideout Mike Evans as he was only able to catch 1-of-10 Week 9 targets. Evans is affordable across the industry and can be viewed as a secondary option in all formats. O.J. Howard has been a touchdown machine this season, but isn’t seeing enough volume for me to seriously consider him in cash games at an increased priced tag. I think he’s a strong GPP fade as well.
I got trolled last week for saying that Adrian Peterson has no floor. 6.3 PPR points later and here we are. Peterson’s lack of floor is especially troubling on DraftKings where receptions out of your running back are super important and AP is a non-factor as a pass catcher. I have no interest in Peterson this week behind a second-string offensive line. I have no interest in the Redskins passing game as well.
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans (+6.5) 46.5
- New England Patriots target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: James White 78 (8.7%), Julian Edelman 44 (12.1%), Rob Gronkowski 43
(21.7%), Josh Gordon 38 (20.4%), Chris Hogan 33 (13.4%), Phillip Dorsett 33 (16.4%)
- Tennessee Titans target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Corey Davis 66 (40.6%), Dion Lewis 37 (-2.6%), Taywan Taylor 30 (21.1%),
Tajae Sharpe 25 (18%), Jonnu Smith 17 (6.2%)
If Dion Lewis isn’t the first guy you lock into your lineups this week you’re just doing it wrong. The Titans have all but killed off Derrick Henry as the large back has only been on the field for 38 of the Titans last 141 offensive snaps over the last two weeks. Lewis’ Week 9 workload was especially eye-opening as he carried the ball 19 times in a game the Titans were leading most of the second half – i.e. it appears the Titans aren’t even going to rely on Henry to milk the clock. Lewis gets a prime revenge spot against a Patriots defense that has struggled the last few seasons defending running backs as pass catchers – New England ranks 25th in DVOA in that category this season.
Marcus Mariota looked slightly more competent in Week 9 as he threw for two touchdowns and added one with his legs. “Slightly more competent” may be all you need at Mariota’s dirt cheap price tag. I wouldn’t jump the gun and say Mariota is a cash game option, but he can be used in GPPs as he should see strong volume as the Titans are nearly touchdown underdogs. Mariota’s receiver to own continues to be Corey Davis who has a 40.6% market share of air yards. Davis is WAY too cheap on DraftKings and he can be considered a core option based on price tag alone. Davis is averaging over eight targets per game this season.
Sony Michel is expected back in Week 10, which muddies the waters enough to where the Patriots backfield is unplayable. James White would be an option in all formats if Michel were to end up a surprise inactive.
The Titans represent a favorable matchup for Tom Brady and his host of pass catchers as Tennessee ranks 24th in pass DVOA. Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman paced the Patriots with 10 targets each in Week 9. Gordon gets the better individual matchup against the Titans as he’ll match up on the outside against disowned former Patriot Malcolm Butler on the majority of his snaps while Edelman battles Logan Ryan in the slot. Gordon is a strong GPP option. Rob Gronkowski, if active, continues to be a glorified offensive lineman.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) 47
- Jacksonville Jaguars target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Donte Moncrief 57 (30.7%), T.J. Yeldon 52 (1.9%), Dede Westbrook 49
(14.9%), Keelan Cole 48 (21.9%), D.J. Chark 22 (9.1%)
- Indianapolis Colts target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Eric Ebron 62 (25.2%), T.Y. Hilton 47 (18.5%), Chester Rogers 46 (12.6%),
Nyheim Hines 42 (1.8%), Ryan Grant 36 (14.8%), Zach Pascal 28 (11.1%), Jack Doyle 22 (5.3%), Marlon Mack 11 (-1%)
This is one of the more interesting games of the week as Leonard Fournette is expected back for the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s recent lack of success combined with Fournette’s return makes me think the Jaguars will try to pound the ball and keep it out of the hands of Andrew Luck at the Colts fast-paced offense. None of the Jaguars running backs are playable until we get some sort of clarity on how the workload will be split and I don’t want any exposure to their passing game as well.
The Jaguars have been underwhelming this season defensively, but they still aren’t a defense I’m eager to pick on. Tight end is a weak enough position that Jack Doyle can be considered as a secondary option. Doyle didn’t lose a step when he returned from injury as the tight end caught 6-of-7 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown his first game back. T.Y. Hilton is cheap enough where I am fine using him in GPPs despite uninspiring target volume.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-6.5) 45
- Detroit Lions target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Golden Tate 67 (20.3%), Marvin Jones 56 (40%), Kenny Golladay 44 (26.9%), Theo Riddick 38 (2.3%), Kerryon Johnson 31 (-.4%), Luke Willson 15 (2.8%)
- Detroit Lions Week 9 target totals (market share air yards) without Golden Tate: Theo Riddick 8 (-5.6%), Marvin Jones 8 (45.6%), Kerryon Johnson 5
(6.3%), Michael Roberts 4 (16.9%), Kenny Golladay 4 (32.5%), Luke Willson 2 (2.5%), T.J. Jones 2 (5.6%)
- Chicago Bears target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Taylor Gabriel 48 (23.6%), Allen Robinson 43 (22.4%), Tarik Cohen 42 (7.8%),
Trey Burton 40 (13.9%), Anthony Miller 35 (17.4%), Jordan Howard 15 (.9%)
The Detroit Lions are a mess. Theo Riddick’s health has ruined a good thing that we had with Kerryon Johnson. It is notable that Kerryon is questionable this week. If Kerryon were to be inactive I would have some interest in Riddick in GPPs. Blount would take over as the Lions early-down back, but Riddick could see a handful of carries and is a valuable commodity as a pass catcher.
Riddick and Marvin Jones led the Lions with eight targets apiece in Week 9. Kenny Golladay only drew three targets. Matthew Stafford dropped back to pass 46 times, but only had 36 pass attempts as he was sacked a ridiculous 10 times. Pass protection has to be a concern again in Week 10 as Khalil Mack is expected to return for the Bears. Expected to be playing from behind, the volume should be there in the passing game despite a tough matchup. I think this is a good time to buy low on both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay as they left a sour taste in owners mouths last week. We like concentrated offenses and MJJ and Golladay could end up accounting for 70% + of the Lions targets going forward.
The Lions have been terrible defensively this season – they rank 30th in pass DVOA and 28th in rush DVOA – and they’ll now be without top cornerback Darius Slay. This is a sneaky good spot for Allen Robinson who was seeing healthy target totals to begin the season before he got hurt. It’s also a good spot for Taylor Gabriel who is $900 less than ARob on FanDuel. I like both guys quite a bit in GPPs. I also like Trey Burton as an option in all formats as the Lions have historically been poor against the TE position and rank 30th in DVOA against it this season. Could this be another week to deploy a Bears onslaught in GPPs with Mitch Trubisky leading the way despite the low total? I’m avoiding the game script dependent running backs in Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard.
Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5) 50
- Arizona Cardinals target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Larry Fitzgerald 55 (28.2%), Christian Kirk 44 (23.5%), Ricky Seals-Jones 39
(20.9%), David Johnson 34 (.8%), Chad Williams 31 (18.4%)
- Kansas City Chiefs target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Travis Kelce 78 (25.7%), Tyreek Hill 70 (35.7%), Sammy Watkins 52 (15.7%),
Kareem Hunt 29 (1.7%), Chris Conley 21 (6.6%)
To overreact, or not? That is the question. Volume was there for Larry Fitzgerald as the veteran wideout saw 12 targets in Byron Leftwich’s first game as offensive coordinator. David Johnson and Ricky Seals-Jones’ roles were also more encouraging as the running back ran 30 routes and carried the ball 16 times while the tight end ran a season-high 37 routes on 47 Josh Rosen dropbacks. RSJ may be my favorite Cardinals dart throw here – opportunity cost at the tight end position appears to be extremely low this week and the Cardinals should be forced to throw the ball playing from behind.
Every week the DFS Twitter joke is, “Why don’t I just stack the Chiefs every week?” It’s a valid question at this point as Kansas City continues to hang sky-high point totals on a weekly basis. The biggest concern surrounding the Chiefs this week is not getting four quarters of run due to blowout. Kareem Hunt has now scored a touchdown in eight straight games as early season usage concerns are a distant memory. Hunt is averaging nearly 17 carries per game and prior to last week had three consecutive weeks of six targets. Hunt is this week’s RB3 in terms of raw projection, behind only Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon.
Sammy Watkins was a participant in Friday’s practice and it looks like he’ll play Sunday saving Davis Mattek from egregiously playing Chris Conley this week. I don’t have much interest in playing a banged up Watkins in a game the Chiefs are expected to be in command of. TyFreak Hill isn’t seeing enough targets to consider as a cash option, but his athletic ability always keeps him in GPP consideration. Travis Kelce is TE1 this weekend. The problem isn’t if Kelce will produce, whether if his high price tag is worth squeezing into your lineup. I’m currently leaning no.
I don’t have a strong read at the QB position this week, which just makes me want to pay up for the uber-consistent Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has four straight games of 30+ DraftKings points and he’s clearly QB1 in terms of raw projection. If I am able to find a lineup construction I like that allows me to pay up for Mahomes I’ll be doing so.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+10) 50
- Los Angeles Chargers target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Keenan Allen 65 (28%), Melvin Gordon 46 (.1%), Mike Williams 32
(27.1%), Tyrell Williams 30 (24%), Austin Ekeler 26 (1.3%), Antonio Gates 21 (7.8%)
- Oakland Raiders target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Jalen Richard 49 (2.2%), Jared Cook 49 (19.8%), Jordy Nelson 38 (21.1%),
Amari Cooper 32 (19.7%), Seth Roberts 28 (11.8%), Martavis Bryant 24 (18%)
The Raiders suck. Don’t play them in DFS on a full slate.
Melvin Gordon is a top two RB this week behind only Todd Gurley. Gordon can be comfortably used on FanDuel over Gurley as MG3 overs a significant discount. I still side with Gurley on DraftKings where there’s only a $400 difference.
Philip Rivers projects as a top point-per-dollar QB option with the Raiders not being able to keep pace the biggest concern. Volume may be an issue for Rivers this week with the Raiders unmotivated to keep games close. Still, Rivers can be considered in all formats whereas his pass catching options are best used in GPPs. I mentioned that last week was a good buy low spot for Keenan Allen and he responded with a six reception, 124 yard performance. This is another good spot to get him at relatively low ownership in a good matchup.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (-10) 51
- Seattle Seahawks target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Tyler Lockett 36 (23%), Nick Vannett 29 (10.3%), Brandon Marshall 24
(14.2%), Doug Baldwin 24 (14.7%), David Moore 21 (15.4%), Mike Davis 20 (-1%)
- Los Angeles Rams target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Robert Woods 74 (33.1%), Brandin Cooks 59 (34.2%), Todd Gurley 49 (.3%),
Cooper Kupp 49 (15.3%), Gerald Everett 21 (4.1%), Tyler Higbee 15 (5.2%)
People are going to play Mike Davis this week if Chris Carson is inactive, and man, I don’t know. Davis has shown strong involvement as a receiver which makes him a better play on DraftKings where you get a point per reception. I understand the reasoning behind Davis if Carson is out, but it’s likely a situation I’ll avoid altogether.
Just as I have little interested in the Seahawks backfield, I have little interest in their passing game. Russell Wilson’s touchdown efficiency he saw prior to last week is unsustainable and something I don’t want to chase. Doug Baldwin has disappointed me enough this season where I’m not going to bother rostering him until he starts to see consistent target totals.
Todd Gurley is once again RB1 and is a strong cash game option on DraftKings. I’m likely to use Melvin Gordon over Gurley on FanDuel thanks to the price savings. A fully healthy wide receiving corps makes predicting the Rams production much more difficult as all three of Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Cooper Kupp cannibalize each other’s target counts. Woods has jumped to the lead in terms of target share, but Cooks owns the lead in market share of air yards, and Kupp heads the trio in terms of red zone targets. I’ll be avoiding the trio in cash games, but use them liberally in GPPs.
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers (-10) 47.5
- Miami Dolphins target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Danny Amendola 51 (18.5%), Kenyan Drake 47 (6%), Albert Wilson 35 (11.4%),
Jakeem Grant 33 (12.6%), Kenny Stills 30 (26.2%), Mike Gesicki 23 (9.1%), DeVante Parker 15 (12.5%)
- Green Bay Packers target totals (market share air yards) through nine weeks: Davante Adams 87 (34.5%), Jimmy Graham 55 (20.3%), Randall Cobb 38
(9.1%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling 32 (15.4%), Geronimo Allison 30 (14.6%)
DFS darling Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s stock is rising with Geronimo Allison on the IR and Randall Cobb questionable for the Packers Week 10 matchup against the Dolphins. MVS is dirt cheap across the industry and could be in line for 6-8 targets if injuries break his way. Davante Adams is arguably a top five WR option this week in terms of raw projection, but I worry a bit about volume with the Packers heavy home favorites. I’m saving MVS, Adams, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Rodgers for GPPs.
Aaron Jones + Packers DST is my favorite correlation GPP play of the week. Even prior to Ty Montgomery leaving town, Jones has gradually seen his role in the Packers offense increase the past couple of weeks, playing on 75-of-126 snaps the Packers last two games and averaging 15 touches per game over that span. With the Packers 10-point favorites and expected to be in control of this game, Jones should see his highest touch total of the season against the Dolphins defense that has been below average against the run this season. As far as Packers DST goes, Brock Osweiler playing from behind on the road behind an offensive line that PFF grades fourth worst in pass blocking is about all you need to know. But if you need to know a little more, the Packers defensive line surprisingly has the fourth highest adjusted sack rate (9%) this season.
I have no interested in the Dolphins…maybe YOLO DeVante Parker if you’re looking to finish off a game stack.
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