Utilizing Reverse Line Movement in DFS
When I see a strong reverse line move, it’s a massive red flag. That flag is so big that I will take any players from the “wrong” side out of all my lineups (cash or GPP), no matter how appealing the matchup looks on paper. This lesson will be about how to identify reverse line moves and why they are so crucial.
First, we need some definitions. The key to seeing reverse line moves is knowing which side the “public,” or the “square bettors” is on. One unscientific way to do this is to ask 20 of your friends at the bar who they think will cover – not win – a game. Similarly, you can see what the faces in the paper or the talking heads on ESPN are picking. If everyone is on the same side, chances are that’s the “public side.”
Of course, we need to be more scientific about things. The website SportsInsights.com tracks how many tickets are written on each side of a game. A less accurate but still effective way to see which side the public likes is the consensus numbers on Covers.com. For something to truly be a “public” play, I believe at least 70 percent of tickets needs to be on that side. To be clear, we are tracking tickets written on a game – not money bet.
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Once we identify that the public loves a certain side, we can start tracking the line movement. If the line moves toward the side that 70 percent of bettors are on, it’s as expected. Bookmakers are going to push the line up so they can induce some money on the other side. These kind of standard moves are not worth reacting to when building DFS lineups.
However, when a line moves the opposite way of those 70-plus percent of tickets, we have a reverse line move. Take a step back and think about what is happening there. The books are getting flooded with action on Side A; your friends, the barber, your mom and all the guys on ESPN think Side A is going to cover. But the books are moving the line toward Side B. That should illicit a big eyebrow raise and a “hmmmm.” The red flag is up.
So why would a line move the opposite way of all the action? It’s really quite simple. Even though tickets are coming in on Side A at a 70 percent or more clip, the money is actually coming in on Side B. And not just any money – the sharpest money in the world. The kind of money that moves a line in the face of heavy public perception. A book may take a thousand $10 bets on Side A, but then they took one $50,000 bet on Side B from a bettor they know to be world-class. So even though the ticket count remains extremely lopsided, the money shows the books that they have to move the line away from what the public likes.
This is easier to see in an example. During Week 15 of the 2015 season, the 10-3 Packers were playing the 7-6 Bills. The line opened Green Bay -6 and roughly 80 percent of the tickets were on Aaron Rodgers and company. By Sunday morning, the line was down to Green Bay -3.5 – a clear and significant reverse line move that proved the sharp money was flooding in on Kyle Orton’s Bills. When I saw this, I immediately made sure I had zero percent of Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson in my DFS lineups.
I can confidently make those changes because the reverse line move is a strong sign the Packers won’t play up to expectation in the game. I can also make it because I know they’re going to be overowned in GPPs.
Of course, not all reverse line moves are created equal. Once you’re comfortable identifying them, we can dig even deeper.
Let’s say a 70-plus percent side goes from -12 to -11. While that’s certainly worth noting, we’re not going to make any rash DFS decisions from that. First of all, the bigger the spread, the less a line move means. And more importantly, that -12 to -11 didn’t cross any key numbers.
The key numbers in the NFL are (in order of importance) 3, 7, 4, 6 and 10. Those are the numbers games most often land on and therefore the ones bookmakers have to be most careful about moving across. As noted in Lesson 1 of this course, getting “middled” is the absolute worst-case scenario for the sportsbook and a surefire way to get fired as a bookmaker. To be even clearer, a move from 3.5 to 2.5 is the biggest move possible. It’s bigger than -13 to -8 and bigger than -2.5 to +2.5. When lines move across 3 and 7, we know there is some very sharp money pushing that line.
So when a game moves across a key number, it should raise your eyebrows. If a game moves across a key number as part of a reverse line move, your eyebrows should fully come off the top of your head.
Everyone who plays DFS at even a low-grade intermediate level knows how important being contrarian is in large-field tournaments. That’s been established. Each week, I’m actively seeking out reasons to avoid the highly-owned players. What is harder to establish is exactly how to confidently fade these chalk plays. Using reverse line moves and key numbers to your advantage will help you get away from the herd and avoid the eggs that populate any NFL season.
The Vegas lines can tell us a lot about where sharp money is being placed in the NFL, which is important since the Vegas odds are strongly correlated with fantasy football production. This course will show you advanced methods professional daily fantasy players utilize to exploit the Vegas odds and line movement into a competitive advantage.
In Advanced Vegas NFL Odds and Lines with Adam Levitan, you’ll learn:
• What line movement really means
• Which types of line movement matter most
•NFL trends related to Vegas odds
• How to avoid trap spots
• How to utilize player props
To read the rest of ‘Advanced Vegas NFL Odds and Lines’, you must purchase the course!
