Wednesday's FanDuel Sportsbook Plays
We’re getting down to the bitter end of both the NBA and NHL playoffs, signaling the dog days of summer – even as a big baseball fan, those times can get rough.
Fortunately, we have arguably the most exciting game in sports happening tonight with Game 7 of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals, so I’ll dig into that after breaking down a plus spot for the Phillies at home against Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks.
Philadelphia Phillies ML -130
The Phillies and D’Backs will square off in the series finale on Wednesday night. The Diamondbacks attracted sharp action in both Games 1 and 2 of this series – they took Monday’s game but dropped Tuesday’s – with the series opener featuring a combined 13 home runs between the two teams. This has happened again today with the MLB odds dropping from about -145 to -130, but I think this offers a nice buyback into the home favorite.
Arizona will trot out Merrill Kelly on Wednesday and he’s still a pretty tough arm to figure out – the 30-year-old righty owns an 8.75 K/BB ratio at home but just a 1.10 K/BB mark on the road. Given that he’s painted a totally different picture on the road this season – one of a pitcher who can’t consistently find the zone – and will now have to square off with one of the most patient offenses in baseball (PHI is 6th in BB% against RHP) in Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies are the attractive side in this draw. Zach Eflin has held hitters to a 29.1 Hard% in Philadelphia (42.5 Hard% on the road).
St. Louis vs. Boston, Under 5.5 Goals (-145)
Knock on wood, but it’s wild that no team has ever scored more than four goals in a Stanley Cup Game 7 despite there being 16 past instances of do-or-die games for all the marbles. Fans generally love to bet favorites and overs, but at this point in the postseason, unders are generally the play. It’s even more pronounced in Game 7s – in those 16 Game 7s in Stanley Cup history, we’ve somewhat shockingly only seen one of those 16 go over five goals. There have been a few pushes mixed in there, but the last six Game 7s have all went under five goals and we haven’t seen more than five goals scored in a Game 7 since 1950. It makes sense – it’s hard to get to this point without elite defense/goaltending and the refs aren’t going to want to be the difference in this one, which should lead to fewer whistles and therefore fewer powerplay opportunities.
The over was attracting a little more than half the bets and money heading into today, but while the bets have remained relatively even (55% on the under), far more of the money is currently leaning towards a low scoring game (76% of money). I’m probably not going to bet the moneyline here unless the Blues jump over +150, these teams are too close in talent for me to lay a big number on the Bruins despite home-ice advantage. Hockey games can be determined on a weird bounce or two and betting moneyline favorites over -160 isn’t something I usually like to do.
For those looking to add to their card, I do have some interest in the Pittsburgh/Atlanta Under 9 (-120) and the Braves against the spread (-1.5, -106). Mike Soroka has come out of the gate red hot and has allowed more than one earned run in just one of his ten starts this year. The Pirates aren’t necessarily a great draw from a daily fantasy sports perspective as they don’t strike out a ton, but they also don’t possess much left-handed power outside of Josh Bell.