The Future is Now - Week 5 NFL Futures Betting and Strategy
Transparency is important so figure it makes sense to start each week by looking back at last week’s futures bets highlighted in this space.
Buffalo to win the AFC East (-240) was a clear win and played out as expected (Dolphins win/Bills loss). The Tua Tagovailoa situation is brutal, hoping for the best there. The Bills were already up to -290 on FanDuel after Thursday’s game. They’re now -370.
The return of Zach Wilson definitely hurt Garrett Wilson’s case for Offensive Rookie Player of the Year. Two catches, 41 yards and six targets were all low marks on the season for him. A big day for Dameon Pierce and Kenny Pickett’s arrival also hurt Wilson. He’s still +1000 but now 6th on the board.
Record: 2-0
Bet This in Week 5: Brian Robinson to win Comeback Player of the Year (+700 on FanDuel)
Robinson hasn’t seen the field yet, but Washington designated him to return to practice this week from the non-football injury list. The rookie was shot in late August in an attempted robbery. The Commanders have 21 days to decide on Robinson’s return date, but head coach Ron Rivera said it could be this week against Tennessee.
This award will come down to two choices: Robinson vs. the star running backs (Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins).
Public sentiment is the main factor in Robinson’s favor, not production. Similar to the support/notoriety Alex Smith received in 2020 when he returned from his own career-threatening leg injury. If Robinson returns this week and contributes at all, the wave of support could cut his odds in half.
Don’t Bet This in Week 5: Tennessee Titans to Miss the Playoffs (-190 on FanDuel)
Apologies in advance to all the Titans fans here at RG, but there’s going to be value on this team to miss the playoffs in a few weeks.
Tennessee has shaken off a slow start to get back to .500, and they have winnable matchups at Washington in Week 5 and against Indianapolis in Week 7 sandwiched around a bye. Week 8 at Houston should be another W. By then, they’re likely plus money to miss the playoffs.
But man, Week 9-15 is an absolute gauntlet. At Kansas City, vs. Denver, at Green Bay, vs. Cincinnati, at Philadelphia, vs. Jacksonville, at Los Angeles Chargers. Those road matchups are especially tough.
Grab this one after Week 8. Decent chance the Titans get buried during that stretch.