2023 WM Phoenix Open: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-02-07 16:00:47

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

As the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am closed with Justin Rose hoisting the trophy, sports betting sites scrambled to post or update odds for this week’s WM Phoenix Open. The Waste Management Phoenix Open continues to grow in prestige and this year is the second elevated event on the PGA Tour Schedule. For that reason, 18 of the top 20 golfers in the world will headline a stacked field. With a raucous crowd expected, Phoenix will host the prelude to Super Bowl VII with a major-adjacent feel. Head over to our betting preview for the event and then glance through this week’s betting card.

Waste Management Phoenix Open at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 7th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 40/1 or better.

2023 WM Phoenix Open: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

• Course: TPC Scottsdale
• Date: February 9 – 12
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,261
• Greens: Bermuda

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Justin Thomas +2100 (FanDuel)

In a completely stacked field, picking a top dog on your betting card feels like a crapshoot. Nobody will be surprised if anyone from 20/1 or below lifts the trophy in Phoenix. That said, the layout of the course plus course history suggests that Justin Thomas could be a value at 21/1.

Thomas boasts five straight cuts at the WM Phoenix Open — all inside the top 20. Thomas finished third in 2019 and 2020 and placed eighth last season as the field strength increased. With a major-adjacent strengthened field, Thomas must be considered with his big-game track record. Winning both the Players’ and the PGA Championship last season, Thomas has the nerves to deal with this level of pressure. Further, the course fits Thomas exceptionally well. A ball-strikers’ course, Thomas has all of the necessary tools in his bag. His only mitigating factor, putting, should be diminished on TPC Scottsdale’s easier greens.

We open our card with Thomas and he is in strong consideration for a one-and-done pick with such a large first place prize. We will pay 1.25 units on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Viktor Hovland +3300 (BetMGM)

Viktor has not had much success in his two starts at the WM Phoenix Open. With two missed cuts in lesser fields, Hovland is a puzzling case. Shouldn’t one of the tour’s best ball-strikers excel on this course?

I think so. Hovland’s short game concerns are less a factor at TPC Scottsdale. He is coming off of a 13th place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to back up his 18th place at the Sentry TOC. Hovland’s approach game and precision and length off of the tee should serve him well on a relatively open Waste Management Phoenix setup.

Further, 33/1 feels like a bargain price even with the field strength. We are not far removed from Hovland contending for The Open Championship on the final day in an equally stacked field. We will include Viktor for 0.75 units at BetMGM. Hovland is a very, very sneaky one-and-done selection as he will likely not garner much ownership with people clamoring to use members of the top five on the betting board.

Corey Conners +8000 (BetMGM)

Heeeeeeeeeeeeee’s back. One of my favorites, Corey Conners checks in as what we should consider a longshot price in this field. Conners tee-to-green game is second-to-none. What he lacks is exactly what TPC Scottsdale mitigates — short game.

Conners has three made cuts at the Phoenix Open and comes in 9th in SG: T2G over his last 50 rounds. His recent form is fine with top 20 finishes in his last two events. Conners struggles around and on the green. As mentioned in our betting preview, the greens at TPC Scottsdale yield a high rate of success for putts within ten feet (89% in 2021). If Conners can dial in the ball-striking, he should have plenty of opportunities to convert.

While he might make for a better DFS play or top finisher bet, Conners gives us upside at a nice price. We sprinkle 0.3 units on him at BetMGM.

Billy Horschel +11000 (PointsBet)

Our final addition to our preliminary card, I add one of my least favorite golfers to watch for a ridiculous value. Billy Horschel might be a difficult watch but his track record at TPC Scottsdale is undeniable.

Horschel seems good for a big surprise win each season — often in strong fields. He has not missed a cut since 2015 in Phoenix and finished 6th place last season during his hot streak of 2022. Horschel, normally not a great putter, gained 5.1 strokes with the flat stick last season. This was his third time gaining north of 5 strokes on the greens at this venue. This might just be a comfortable place for Horschel.

At 110/1, we are not spending too much to include Billy Horschel at PointsBet. With 0.2 units, we conclude a 2.5-unit card with Horschel.

2023 WM Phoenix Open Betting Card

Waste Management Phoenix Open Total Units in Play – 2.5

2023 Net Units: -8.35

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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