MLB World Series Game 3 Odds and Betting Picks
The World Series is officially underway and tied 1-1 after the Rays proved to us on Wednesday night that they are not just going to lay down and die. The bats came alive in each of the first two games and this series has all the makings of an instant classic. Game 3 is Friday night and that can only mean one thing: It’s time to make some money. Let’s get started as we look at odds from online sportsbooks.
MLB Odds: World Series Game 3
Dodgers’ Bats vs. Charlie Morton
Advantages
- Morton is 7-2 career in the playoffs with a sub-3 ERA. While many pitchers tend to get jittery and struggle in the playoffs, big Chuck rises to the occasion.
- King Charles has been fantastic against righties this season, allowing a 0.282 wOBA and a 0.083 ISO. He should face at least four right-handed bats tonight assuming Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Will Smith, and Chris Taylor are in the starting lineup.
- He has a 30% strikeout rate vs. left-handed hitters this year, which could help him to get past the freakish trio of Corey Seager, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger tonight.
Disadvantages
- The Dodgers are good. Really good. The projected starting lineup has a combined 0.364 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. That’s terrifying.
- Morton’s low ISO (0.083) against right-handed bats this season has been largely a result of his low fly ball rate (27.8%). The Dodgers’ three best righties all have high fly ball rates against RHP this season (Betts 50.4%, Turner 42.7%, Smith 46.0%). Their ability to get the ball in the air could negate Chuck’s edge over righties.
- If there’s one thing Charlie Morton has struggled with this season, it’s been the combination of fly balls (42.9%) and hard contact (52.4%) he’s given up to left-handed hitters when he’s not striking them out. The strength of the Dodgers’ lineup has been their lefty power, so I expect the Chuckster to give up a couple dingers tonight.
The Edge: Dodgers’ Bats
Charlie Morton is an excellent pitcher, but the Dodgers have the recipe to do some damage against him tonight. I don’t expect him to get shelled, but I would be surprised if he makes it past the 5th inning tonight.
Rays’ Bats vs. Walker Buehler
Advantages
- He’s scorching hot coming into this game. He’s allowed only 2 runs on 12 hits in his last 15 innings of work, striking out 21 batters along the way. He did that against the Padres and the Braves. This guy can pitch.
- His 30.7% strikeout rate this season has led him to an elite 3.44 XFIP. He’s an excellent pitcher who is striking people out at an alarming rate. The Rays’ projected starting lineup features six hitters with strikeout rates over 27% this season vs. RHP.
- The Rays’ bats haven’t exactly dominated right-handed pitching this season. Their projected starting lineup has a combined 0.331 wOBA against righties which is right around the league average.
Disadvantages
- Buehler has struggled with control at times this season, posting an above-average 9.5% walk rate. The Rays are patient at the plate and should have five hitters in their order with walk rates of 10% or higher vs. RHP. They call him “Walker” for a reason folks.
- His 30.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate mean that about 60% of the batters he faces put the ball in play. He’s given up a 43.9% fly ball rate and a 36.6% hard contact rate on balls in play this season, both well above the league average. The Rays are roping piss missiles at a freakish rate this postseason and I expect them to launch one or two against Buehler tonight.
- Randy Arozarena has gone two consecutive games without hitting a ball over the fence.
The Edge: Neutral
The one thing we can’t deny is that Walker Buehler is going to strike people out tonight. I think this matchup will all come down to how many guys are on base when he gives up his first home run. If he gives up a solo shot, he should be able to limit the damage overall. The biggest concern is him walking one or two guys and then giving up a homer with runners on base.
World Series Game 3 Betting Picks
Based on the pitching matchup and the Dodgers’ hard-hitting lineup, the -150 moneyline makes sense. After a day off, both bullpens should be well rested. Ultimately I think there’s a little bit of value on the underdog.The Rays have done more damage against relievers than the Dodgers in the first two games of this series, and their right-handed pinch hitters (Yandy Diaz, Hunter Renfroe, Mike Brosseau) make it tough for the Dodgers to march out any southpaws in the later innings.
Game 3 Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +130 at PointsBet
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Totals: Over/Under 7.5
The total in this game is very low at 7.5. The first two games in this series have had 11 and 10 runs scored, respectively. The jitters and nerves of playing in the World Series seemed to affect these pitchers much more than the hitters, resulting in each of the first two games going over.
However, this game features two really good starting pitchers and two really good bullpens, so the argument can be made for betting the uUder. Morton and Buehler could both pitch 6 scoreless innings and make this one easy.
Per usual, the oddsmakers are probably right on the money with this line. The public is 50/50 on the total, so the over is not as much of a sucker bet as it feels like. I want to see runs and these teams can put them up in a hurry. I just convinced myself that this game will be over 7.5 runs in the first 3 innings — maybe that’s overzealous, but I still lean toward Over 7.5 runs in Game 3.
The Pick: OVER 7.5
World Series Props for Game 3
There are plenty more ways to make money on this game than the Rays and the over. Let’s take a look at props for Game 3.
Walker Buehler Over 6.5 Strikeouts
FanDuel Sportsbook has a fun way to bet this. You can bet on him to have over each number of strikeouts, starting at 3 and going all the way up to 11. The odds start getting reasonable at 7+ strikeouts, which is -135. That will be my main bet, but I’ll also sprinkle some money on him to have 9+ (200), 10 (330), and 11 (+500). This Rays’ lineup has strikeouts all over the place and this is a nice little way to hedge the over 7.5.
Players to Hit a Homerun
I already talked about Walker Buehler giving up at least one dinger tonight, so I have some level of interest in all of these Rays bats. When looking at their numbers against right-handed pitching, there is one guy in the Rays lineup who stands out: Randy Arozarena. Against RHP, Dandy Randy has a 0.378 ISO and hits the ball with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher 50% of the time he puts it in play. That’s a lot.
Even putting the analytics aside for a second, this guy has been preposterously hot during this playoff run, belting 7 home runs in 16 games. His odds tonight are +450 on FanDuel Sportsbook. If you bet 1 unit on him to homer at +450 odds every game this postseason, you’d be up 22.5 units. Those odds are just too high for a guy this hot.
Note: If the Rays win the World Series this season they have to change the name of their park to Aroz Arena right?
The Pick: Randy Arozarena to Hit a Homerun (+450)
On the other side of this game it’s easy to narrow things down to the left-handed bats against Charlie Morton considering the combination of fly balls (42.9%) and hard contact (52.4%) I mentioned earlier. Looking at the Dodgers lefties against right-handed pitching, Corey Seager jumps off the page with his 0.331 ISO and absurd 94.1 MPH average exit velocity.
It’s the same story for Seager as it is for Arozarena when looking at things less analytically. His odds to hit a home run are +370 tonight. He’s homered 7 times in 14 games this postseason, two of those coming in the same game. If you bet 1 unit on him to homer at +370 every game this postseason, you’d be up 14.2 units. I think that +370 line is way too high.
The Pick: Corey Seager to Hit a Homerun (+370)
Note: You can parlay both Seager and Arozarena to homer on FanDuel Sportsbook at +2374 odds. Seems like a no brainer.
World Series MVP Futures Update
Matt Schmitto picked Lowe +2800 to win World Series MVP before the series started. His odds quickly shortened to +1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook but +2300 was temporarily available at DraftKings and Unibet yesterday.
Be sure to check out ScoresAndOdds to compare World Series futures prices across the sports betting industry.
The Bottom Line
This should be a very entertaining game regardless of how it plays out. I’ll be focusing on these five picks and messing around with some Same Game Parlays as well. If you parlay all five of these picks together the odds are +23,268. I’ll absolutely be throwing a few bucks on that and seeing if we can’t sweep the board. Happy Free Money Friday.
Image Credit: Imagn