Rays vs. Dodgers: 2020 World Series Betting Odds & Picks
It turns out you don’t need 162 games to get the best two teams in the World Series.
On Tuesday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays will meet up for Game 1 of the 2020 World Series — a World Series that many thought would never happen in the first place.
Updated WS Odds for Game 2
Once in jeopardy, as the NFL and NBA also were, the MLB successfully improvised and completed an abbreviated season with a few rule changes.
At the time, I wrote that “the shortened baseball season presents a unique opportunity for baseball bettors searching for value in World Series odds and other MLB futures markets.”
Fast forward roughly four months, and the pre-season favorites — the Dodgers (+380) — stand as -200 series favorites in the final series of the year.
Their opponents, the Tampa Bay Rays, were a little further down MLB futures betting sheets, but at +1700 they weren’t exactly longshots.
Only five teams, three of which were fellow American League members—Yankees (+400), Astros (+800), Twins (+1500) — had shorter odds to win the World Series before the first pitch of the season. But 40 wins later (.667 win pct), it was clear the Rays were the best team in the AL.
The fact that the Rays are in the World Series is no surprise to our own MLB DFS analyst David Potts. When I asked him about World Series Odds and which teams he thought had value leading up to Opening Day, he immediately pointed towards the Rays.
“As good as the Yankees are, I have no interest in a favorite in an unknown season like this, and I’d prefer to go a little further down to teams like the Rays and Twins,” Potts said.
The Rays’ history of perfecting the use of openers was appealing. They are also used to mixing and matching their lineup for different situations and are already made for a 60-game sprint, Potts pointed out.
Those same characteristics could help them in a four-to-seven game World Series sprint against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
At +175 odds across the online sports betting industry, the Rays will need to bring their best stuff against the best team in baseball. Their opponents, the Dodgers, held the best regular-season record on the way to their third World Series appearance in four years.
2020 World Series Preview
The Dodgers will give Clayton Kershaw, a future Hall-of-Famer and one of the best pitchers in baseball, the nod to start Game 1, which begins at 8:15 pm ET. Tyler Glasnow will take the mound for the Rays.
Though one of the best pitchers in MLB history, Kershaw has somewhat inexplicably had his fair share of struggles in the postseason.
We’ve seen some hints of those struggles this October, most recently in NLCS Game 4 loss to the Braves. In that game, Kershaw gave up four earn runs and seven hits, including a home run, in just five innings pitched.
Against San Diego, in Game 2 of the ALDS, Kershaw gave up two home runs, six hits, and three earned runs in six innings.
Don’t be surprised if we see Kershaw struggle against a Rays team that absolutely loves hitting against lefties.
Tampa Bay’s lineup has a .343 wOBA against left-handed pitchers.
Glasnow is also vulnerable against the hard-hitting lineup of Dodgers.
After having the best season of his career in 2019 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, Glasnow came back down to earth a little bit in 2020. He still finished the season with a 5-1 record, but his ERA was a much more normal 4.08. However, with a fastball that averages 98 mph, the 27-year-old pitcher is striking out more hitters than he ever has before.
Rays vs. Dodgers World Series Picks
Blake Snell will start Game 2 for the Rays, while the Dodgers have yet to make a decision. Game 3 will include RHP Walker Buehler, who has been dominant in the 2020 playoffs with a 1.89 ERA despite displaying some control issues during the regular season. His 29 strikeouts are the second-most this postseason.
As great as this Dodgers lineup is, I keep going back to what Potts said at the beginning of the season and how it still applies.
With Charlie Morton the probable starter for Game 3, their starting pitching is one-game deeper than the Dodgers’, and when it comes to their bullpen, it’s as good as it gets.
Consider this: The Rays haven’t lost a game this season in which they led after the seventh inning.
Of course, the Rays need to get a lead against the Dodgers first.
By all measures the Dodgers are more likely to win the Word Series, but I’m happy to bet on the Rays +175 to pull off the upset.
2020 World Series MVP Pick: Lowe +2800
Additionally, I’m picking Brandon Lowe +2800 to win World Series MVP at PointsBet. Batting just .115, Lowe has been in quite a postseason slump, which is part of the reason we get a discounted price on one of the Rays’ best players. In fact, Lowe was voted the team’s regular-season MVP after leading the team in home runs (14) and RBIs (37).
Four Rays players sit ahead of Lowe on the MVP betting board, three of which are pitchers. Randy Arozarena is getting most of the love at +900, and rightfully so. The rookie sensation is having a ridiculous October, batting .356/.415/.797 in his postseason debut. Arozarena is a legitimate threat to win World Series MVP if the Rays do pull off the upset, but I’m not as worried about a Rays pitcher taking the award.
As mentioned earlier, the Rays love reaching into their bullpen, often and early. Not one pitcher has gone beyond six innings in a start this postseason. Do we really think they’re going to win MVP?
Now let’s hope Lowe pulls out of his slump.
Image Credit: Imagn