Yards Per Gretch: Week 16

by Ben Gretch (gretch) Last Updated 2018-12-22 15:55:47 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

Ben Gretch, Editor in Chief of Fantasy Insiders, takes an ultra-high resolution look at the upcoming NFL week. If you haven’t yet been introduced to Ben’s level of thinking, get ready for great takes loaded with analytical insight.

Week 16

Ten of the 24 teams on the Week 16 slate have implied totals under 21. Just six teams carry totals over 25. That makes things relatively simple. In cash games, you’ll want to jam in exposure to those high-end offenses. In tournaments, there are a lot of ways to be contrarian, and I favor a good mix of the chalkier options with some lower-ownership guys. Let’s get to the picks.

Exploitable Situations

Robert Woods / Josh Reynolds @ARI

Todd Gurley sounds legitimately questionable, and I’m not sure it really matters if he plays or not because at this point it’s tough to imagine a scenario where his snap share isn’t at best significantly limited. Because of where the Rams are with their RB depth chart behind him, it sounds like C.J. Anderson will get the start if Gurley can’t go. Anderson was signed just this week, on Tuesday the 18th.

My reading of this is it makes the Rams’ passing game a bit safer from a potential blowout game script. There’s no denying they’ve stumbled a bit of late, and it follows they could use this game where they are favored by 14.5 points to get things tuned up. Even if the second half is run heavy for Anderson and company, it’s a good bet they’ll come out throwing. With Brandin Cooks likely drawing Patrick Peterson’s attention, Woods and Reynolds are my preferred targets at different price tiers, Woods for obvious reasons and Reynolds because he continues to play big snaps and see plenty of volume, including four end zone looks last week as well as an overturned touchdown where he was marked down at the 1.

Dalvin Cook @DET / Marlon Mack vs. NYG

I’m lumping these two backs together because we saw similar trends from their teams in Week 16. After firing John DeFilippo, Minnesota ran the ball 40 times against just 21 passes, only the second time Kirk Cousins has thrown fewer than 33 times all season. As 6-point road favorites, there’s plenty of potential for a similar game atmosphere in Week 16, something that could help Cook to a repeat of his first 20-touch game since Week 1.

Mack’s situation might be even more advantageous after the Colts ran 39 times against 27 passes in a 23-0 route over Dallas last week, including a season-high 27 rushes for Mack himself. While Cook ceded 15 carries to Latavius Murray, Mack’s backup Nyheim Hines rushed just 6 times in Week 15. As a 9.5-point home favorite, Mack looks in line for another 20-carry game.

Expanding Roles

Jamaal Williams @NYJ

In a week where there are a ton of viable RB options, Jamaal Williams is one I’ll play on some sites but potentially fade on others. He’s relatively cheaper on FanDuel than on DraftKings — and he’s dirt cheap on Yahoo! — as pricing was set after the in-game injury to Aaron Jones but before it was clear he was headed to IR.

Williams should have the backfield to himself. Jones went down early last week, finishing with a 10% snap share, and Williams played an 87% share in his stead, fourth-highest among all RBs last week. The only other back on the roster is Kapri Bibbs, who was with Washington earlier this month and will be active for Green Bay for the first time in Week 16, so another 80%+ share is likely in store for Williams. Of course, Williams isn’t the most talented back in the league, and Green Bay travels to New York as just 2.5-point road favorites. He’s a high-floor play that does have some ceiling but isn’t among my favorite tournament plays of the week.