NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over Til It's Under (Friday, Dec. 1)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
New York Knicks vs. Toronto Raptors First Quarter Under 56.6 (-140 on Fanatics)
Two slow starters here, and a pair of good defenses out of the gate. New York and Toronto are tied for 23rd in first quarter scoring at 26.7 points per game. The Knicks have allowed the fewest points per game in the opening period, and the Raptors are 6th.
New York’s glacial pace (96.69 – 29th in the league) also gets even slower in the first quarter, down to 95.56. The Knicks are just outside the top 10 in offensive rating on the season at 114.3, but they’ve been worse on the road (112.3). This is also a back-to-back following a come-from-behind win over Detroit. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle both played 38+ minutes.
Toronto is 22nd in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. They’re 20th in pace (98.97) and play a bit slower at home (97.85).
Might feel like a lot of little stat differences instead of one glaring outlier, but the totality of the spot makes this number a few points too high.
Jrue Holiday Under 15.5 Points (-121 on Caesars)
This line might be inflated after Holiday had 18 points in this matchup last time. Importantly, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis missed that game. Only Porzingis is expected to be out tonight. Holiday sees a small usage uptick without Porzingis on the court, but Brown gets a similar bump, while Jayson Tatum and Derrick White get bigger boosts.
Holiday’s scoring and shot attempts are the lowest they’ve been since his rookie season (with Philly!). The playing time is there (higher than any of his Milwaukee seasons), but he’s just not asked to do much scoring on this team. Holiday is taking just 11.1 shots per game and shooting a career-low 42.9% from the field.
Philadelphia is a mediocre matchup in terms of defensive rating and pace. Holiday has only scored 16+ points in 3-of-16 games, if you’re into that sort of trend.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 4-1
- Prop Picks: 4-1
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