College Football Picks For The Big 12: Oklahoma State and TCU
We’re less than two months away from college football and 2019 season win totals and futures odds are out at various online sports betting sites. We’ve already touched on four Big 12 teams:
2019 College Football Win Totals for the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners.
2019 College Football Season Win Totals — Baylor Bears and Texas Tech Red Raiders
We increase that number to six as we look at the Oklahoma State Cowboys and TCU Horned Frogs. For more college football betting tips, check out our college football picks strategy guide.
All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time the article was published unless otherwise stated.
College Footballs Picks For The Big 12
Oklahoma State Cowboys Over/Under 6.5 Wins
Big 12 Odds: +1800
2018 Recap: The Oklahoma State Cowboys struggled in 2018 with a 6-6 regular-season record, ending the Cowboys’ streak of three consecutive 10-win seasons. In fact, it was only the second time that the Cowboys ended the regular season without a winning record since 2007. A victory over Missouri in the Liberty Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs gave them their seventh win.
2019 Preview: The Cowboys and Gundy hope to bounce back as a potential dark horse to win the Big 12. First, they’ll have to figure out who their starting quarterback is, which remains Oklahoma State’s biggest question mark after 2018 starter Taylor Cornelius graduated. Cornelius’ departure isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Cornelius threw for almost 4,000 yards but struggled with consistency, throwing for a conference-high 13 interceptions while completing less than 60 percent of his passes.
Redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and Hawaii transfer Dru Brown are battling to take over the offense. Oklahoma State’s new offensive approach, headed by former Princeton offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Sean Gleeson, might have something to do with who gets the starting job. The Cowboys will stay spread out, but if his playcalling looks anything like it did in Princeton, which featured frequent run-options and sweeps, then Sanders, who was ESPN’s No. 8 dual-threat QB in the 2018 class, will likely have an edge at earning the starting job.
Oklahoma State may run the ball more, but they won’t be slowing down. Gleeson’s innovative schemes helped Princeton rank second in the FCS in scoring and third in total offense. Three starters return to Stillwater to form an offensive line that will give Big 12 defenses fits.
Pick(s): Second to Under 9.5 wins for the Texas Longhorns, Over 6.5 wins for Oklahoma State is my favorite win total bet in the Big 12. Consider the fact that Caesars Sportsbook opened Oklahoma State’s win total at 7 games while juicing the Over to -130. Compare that to BetStars where you can bet Over 6.5 (-137).
Additionally, Gundy is one of the best coaches in the conference and they should upgrade on offense. They also have a favorable schedule, featuring easy non-conference wins against Oregon State, McNeese State and Tulsa. Oklahoma State kicks off the season as 16.5-point favorites at Oregon State. They are projected to be nearly 10-point underdogs on the road against Oklahoma and Texas but don’t be shocked if they pull off an upset in Austin. In fact, lock in Oklahoma State +9 against Texas at FanDuel right now as it’s listed as one of their ‘Games of the Year’. The same spread is just +7.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and it may drop if Texas struggles against LSU early in the season.
TCU Horned Frogs Over/Under 7.5 Wins
Big 12 Odds: +1800
2018 Recap: Gundy isn’t the only notable Big 12 coach looking to redeem himself after a disappointing season. Like Oklahoma State, Gary Patterson’s TCU Horned Frogs performed far below expectations in 2018. After entering the season ranked No. 16, Patterson’s squad lost by double digits in back to back games against Ohio State and Texas. The Horned frogs would go on to lose four more games, including losses against Texas Tech, West Virginia and Kansas…yes, Kansas. It was KU’s lone win of the season but the embarrassment didn’t end there. West Virginia smashed TCU 47-10 two weeks later. They were lucky to earn a bowl bid by closing out the season with two 7-point wins against Baylor and Oklahoma State. They earned their seventh win in a low scoring affair at the Cheez-It Bowl, where they topped Cal 10-7 in overtime.
2019 Preview: Also like Oklahoma State, TCU is in search of a quarterback. Right now the QB competition is packed, which could be a good or bad sign depending on how you look at it. Whoever ends up behind center, they’ll have one the conference’s top targets in Jalen Reagor. Reagor led the team in receiving in eight games last year. He also set a school record finding the end zone in seven straight games.
They’ll have to reload on both sides of the ball as they ranked 85th in S&P+’s returning production metric at the end of last season. Unfortunately, they’re already dealing with a handful of injuries in Fort Worth. So many that they were forced to call off their spring game.
Patterson’s signature 4-2-5 defense is still set to be the Big 12’s best defense, as fans have grown accustomed to over the years.
As for the schedule, you can already bet on five TCU games at FanDuel. The Horned Frogs are 3-point underdogs against Iowa State and Texas, 4.5-point favorites at Texas Tech, 17-point underdogs at Oklahoma and 13.5-point favorites when they host West Virginia.
Pick: With a handful of competitive games on the schedule and questions remaining at quarterback, it’s tough to bet Over 7.5 wins here. On the flip side, last time a Patterson-coached squad disappointed, they bounced back with an 11-win season. Still, with Baylor and Iowa State trending upward, along with possible improvements from Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, 7 wins seem more likely than 8.
(Top Photo: Rob Ferguson/USA TODAY Sports)