(USA TODAY Sports Images)Conference tournaments are in full swing with more getting underway this week. March Madness is just two weeks away and the mid-major conferences are taking center stage with intriguing tournament Cinderellas Wofford, Hofstra and Loyola-Chicago trying to earn an automatic bid to the Big Dance.
Our Thomas Casale and Matt Schmitto analyze the tournaments in the Colonial Athletic, Southern, Missouri Valley and West Coast Conferences. They break down the odds, while giving their top picks and sleepers for the four conference tournaments.
Next Week Casale and Schmitto will return to pick the Power 5 conference tournaments.
Odds courtesy of the Westgate LV SuperBook
COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION
March 9-12, 2019 at Charleston, SC
HOFSTRA 6/5
NORTHEASTERN 2/1
CHARLESTON 5/2
WILLIAM & MARY 12/1
DELAWARE 30/1
DREXEL 30/1
NC WILMINGTON 60/1
TOWSON 80/1
JAMES MADISON 80/1
ELON 200/1
Casale: On paper, this is a three-team race between Hofstra, Northeastern and Charleston. They have dominated the CAA all season. I’m going with Northeastern at 2/1. The Huskies dealt with some injuries early in the season but since getting healthy have won 13 of their last 15 games, including a 75-61 win over top seed Hofstra. In that game, Northeastern held Hofstra to a season-low 39.3 field goal percentage. I like Northeastern’s 1-2 punch of Vasa Pusica and Donnell Gresham to beat Hofstra again in the finals, so I’ll take the better odds at 2/1.
I don’t have a strong sleeper in the CAA because it’s so top-heavy but I’ll look at William & Mary at 12/1. The Tribe enters the tournament on a 5-game winning streak with three of those victories coming on the road. If one team is going to surprise, my money is on William & Mary crashing the party.
Schmitto: I agree on it being a three-team race. I have a tough time picturing anyone winning this thing outside of those three favorites. Hofstra has had some recent struggles, going into two overtime games and losing two of their last five. In fact, Hofstra is 1-4 ATS the spread in those games. With that said, I still like the Pride. Despite their recent struggles against the number, they only lost three times throughout conference play and I like them to come out strong to earn a bid to the Big Dance.
It might be better to wait and bet the money line rather than the outright number. They were only 4.5-point favorites to Northeastern at home and 1-point favorites on the road in Charleston. If they do earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament, they’ll have to win three games to do so. Rolling over the ML in some of these spots is definitely superior to betting before the tournament starts.
Casale: I can’t argue with Hofstra. I see the top two seeds meeting in the finals here, so it will likely come down to me vs. you for a trip to the Big Dance.
Schmitto: If that’s the case, at least one of us will end up in good shape.
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MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE
March 7-10, 2019 at St. Louis, MO
LOYOLA CHICAGO 9/5
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 4/1
DRAKE 4/1
MISSOURI STATE 6/1
BRADLEY 8/1
NORTHERN IOWA 8/1
ILLINOIS STATE 18/1
INDIANA STATE 20/1
VALPARAISO 50/1
EVANSVILLE 50/1
Casale: The Valley is traditionally one of my top conferences. This year? Eh, not so much. In my preseason power rankings, I had Southern Illinois ranked No. 1 and Illinois State No. 3. The Salukis finished tied for second in the Valley, while Illinois State was tied for third with a conference record of 9-9. However, neither team performed as well as I expected this year.
So, what am I doing for the tournament? Doubling down. I’m taking Southern Illinois to win at 4/1 and Illinois State as my sleeper at 18/1. I don’t think Loyola is nearly as good as last season and five teams finished 10-8 or 9-9 in conference play. With so much parity, this could end up being one of the wildest conference tournaments. Southern Illinois ended the year winning 7 of 10 games and I still believe they are the most talented team in the league.
Illinois State was right in the thick of the conference race until losing in the most gut-wrenching way imaginable at Missouri State. The Redbirds never recovered, going 2-4 after the loss. They have an opportunity to reset in the tournament.
Don’t be surprised if one of the longer shots on the board wins this tournament with seven teams in the Valley separated by just three games. Drake is probably the best value on the board at 4/1 but I can’t back them. Hate the Drake!
Schmitto: I keep hearing how chalk has historically taken down this tournament, but people forget that the “chalk” that was hitting in past years was Wichita State and Creighton. Creighton left after the 2014 season and Wichita State left the conference two seasons ago. Point being, this tournament is wide open. I’m not listening to all this chalk talk. Loyola-Chicago is looking to defend last year’s tournament title, but there are too many intriguing plays available.
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If it wasn’t for Drake’s recent injuries, I’d be all over them at +400. My play is Bradley. Bradley started conference season off 0-5 and finished with 10-8 conference record, winning 10 of its last 13 games. They beat every team in the conference at least once other than six-seeded Northern Iowa. Luckily, they’re on opposites sides of the bracket.
Casale: Schmitto going with an 8/1 shot to take it down. I like it. We’re on the same page in this tournament. Should be one of the most entertaining conference tournaments to watch with close games and upsets.
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
March 8-11, 2019 at Asheville, NC
WOFFORD 5/7
FURMAN 3/1
NC GREENSBORO 5/1
EAST TENNESSEE STATE 5/1
MERCER 60/1
CHATTANOOGA 300/1
FIELD 50/1
Casale: People have started to take notice of how good Wofford is in the last month. The Terriers are even better than the casual fan realizes. The fact that Wofford went a perfect 18-0 in what may be the toughest mid-major conference this season is impressive. The Southern Conference has four legit teams that can cause havoc in March with Furman, UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State also talented enough to win the tournament. It’s hard to pick against Wofford though. They’ve beaten all the tough teams at home and on the road. The Terriers haven’t lost since Dec. 19 at Mississippi State.
If you’re looking to bet a team other than Wofford, I recommend UNC Greensboro at 5/1. I have Greensboro and Furman rated as the second-best teams in the Southern Conference. The Spartans have slightly better odds and split with Furman this season.
I’d like to see someone other than Wofford win the tournament so the Southern Conference gets two teams into the Big Dance but the Terriers are the clear favorites here. I’ll be shocked if one of the top four seeds doesn’t win this tournament. Very little value beyond Greensboro and ETSU at 5/1 in the top-heavy Valley.
Schmitto: 18-0 is tough to argue against. 12 of those were double-digit wins. With top 20 rankings in both KenPom’s and the NCAA’s new NET system, they are by far the best team in the Southern Conference. The next closest Southern team via KenPom is Furman at no. 52.
It’s worth pointing out Wofford has shown some vulnerability in overtime wins against East Tennessee State and Samford. They don’t even have to win the conference tournament to get a bid to the Big Dance, which makes teams like Furman, NC Greensboro and East Tennessee State a little more tempting if we want to take a stroll down Narrative Street — never mind that, though. A lot like the next conference we talk about, I’m not thinking too hard about this one. Give me Wofford.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
March 7-12, 2019 at Las Vegas, NV
GONZAGA 1/15
ST MARY’S 6/1
SAN FRANCISCO 20/1
BYU 30/1
FIELD 60/1
Casale: I’m not going to spend a lot of time explaining why Gonzaga will win this tournament. The Bulldogs are a whopping 1/15 favorite and won their 16 conference games by an average of 27 points. They’re good.
If you want to bet another team other than Gonzaga, I suggest taking the field at 60/1 for one reason: San Diego. I was high on the Toreros this year and after a strong start, they stumbled to a 18-13 record. However, San Diego is a tough, defensive-minded team that likes to slow the game down. The Toreros lost by 16 and 12 points to Gonzaga this year. In the WCC, those are considered close games. San Diego also played Gonzaga tough in both matchups last season.
Listen, no one is likely to beat the Bulldogs but San Diego has the type of style to pull an upset and three of their last four games against Gonzaga have been decided by 12 points or less. I’d much rather take a shot with San Diego at 60/1 over St. Mary’s at 6/1. The Gaels have no chance to beat Gonzaga.
Schmitto: The key here, is to shop around for the best number, even if you’re taking Gonzaga. Luckily, we can make it easy—if you want to play Gonzaga, sign up at FanDuel Sportsbook and take them at -700. I actually think there’s a lot of value there, and it’s the best number for Gonzaga I can find.
Consider this: Gonzaga played 16 conference games and the closest they came to losing was in a 12-point win to San Diego, as you just pointed out. Not to mention the way WCC’s bracket is uniquely set up. If I’m not mistaken, Gonzaga only has to win two games to walk away champions. Odds are they play San Francisco in the semi-finals, who they already beat by 13 and 30 points. Then they’ll likely face Saint Mary’s who most recently played them within 14 points, but Gonzaga beat them be by 48 – FORTY-EIGHT—points less than a month ago. The smallest spread Gonzaga bettors have seen during conference play is -9 at St. Mary’s and at San Francisco.
This is an absolute gift from FanDuel, and we’re fools if we pass it up.
If you really have the itch for a longshot – I don’t’ suggest it — then you can take St. Mary’s +1100 at DraftKings Sportsbook and BYU +3000 or San Fran at +5000 at FanDuel. Honestly, if you’re wanting exposure to underdogs, it might not be a terrible idea just to take a couple of these numbers plus a big play on Gonzaga -700.
Casale: Nice find. I’d consider Gonzaga at -700. Unfortunately, I live two hours away in NY, so I can’t bet it, but that’s another can of worms. Looks like we are on the same page in these mid-major tournaments. I’m sure we’ll have some different opinions next week when I pick Stanford to win the Pac-12.
Schmitto: We can remain cordial as long as you don’t fade my Red Raiders in the Big 12 Tournament. I’m looking forward to talking some Power 5 basketball next week, but this weekend should be fun…Let’s go Bradley.