(USA TODAY Sports)`The NCAA Tournament is the biggest sports betting event of the year for Las Vegas sportsbooks. The four-day avalanche of money coming in from sports bettors even exceeds the Super Bowl. How are bettors approaching the NCAA Tournament this year? Are they backing Duke to win it all? Which games have seen the most action early? We spoke to oddsmakers in Las Vegas and New Jersey to get their insights on the NCAA Tournament leading up to Thursday’s tip-offs.
Sportsbooks rooting for Duke?
We can’t discuss this year’s tournament without talking about Duke first. Led by freshman sensation Zion Williamson, the Blue Devils are the prohibited favorites to win this year’s National Championship at odds ranging from +225 to +240 at most books.
Ironically, sportsbooks won’t mind seeing Duke win it all this year. Despite the most public of public teams, Duke’s odds have been so low all year, bettors have looked elsewhere to place wagers on the futures market.
“We win a ton of money on Duke,” said Golden Nugget sportsbook director, Tony Miller. “We kept the odds low all season. Bettors like to take the longshots. If they win the whole thing, that’s great for us.”
It’s hard to believe now but Duke actually opened as the second betting favorite to win the National Title behind Kentucky. Of course, that all changed after Duke blew the Wildcats off the floor in the first game of the season, 118-84. Since then, Duke’s future odds have been so low, bettors searched for value with other teams.
“Duke never had high odds. They were 4/1 early in the season and that’s as high as they got,” Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of sportsbook operations, told RotoGrinders. “They really aren’t an appealing team to bet at those odds. Now they’re sitting at 12/5, so Duke isn’t a problem for us. There’s really no value there.”
The public will be all over Duke during the NCAA Tournament
There may not have been much value betting Duke futures but oddsmakers expect public bettors to back the Blue Devils heavily on a game-to-game basis during the tournament. The public always likes to bet on Duke and that has only increased with the infatuation over Zion Williamson.
“For futures, bettors look for more value. For individual games, it depends on the matchup and how the point spread comes out,” said Jay Rood, MGM’s vice president of race and sports. “We’re obviously going to take a lot of bets on Duke because Zion looks so great and I imagine he’ll continue down that path. They’ll have some fairly big point spread numbers but betting against Duke is like betting against Belichick and Brady. It can be dangerous.”
One sportsbook encouraging Duke money
While most sportsbooks will be happy to see Duke cut down the nets this year, one is actually trying to get people to bet more money on the Blue Devils. PointsBet is New Jersey is keeping its Duke odds to win the National Championship at +300, the highest in the country.
“We’re at +300 on Duke. We did push that in after some sharp money but we decided to go back to +300 and we’re going to stay there,” said Ron Shell, PointsBet’s vice president of customer and insights. “We’re happy to have the best price in the country on Duke. We think it’s incredibly hard to win the NCAA Tournament. We’re not going to move from that price.”
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This year for the first time, bettors in New Jersey will be allowed to wager on the NCAA Tournament, so sportsbooks are trying to attract gamblers by using different promotional strategies. FanDuel tried a similar approach during the Super Bowl when it kept the Patriots -2 while all the other sportsbooks in the country were sitting at -2.5 of -3. The lower odds attracted bettors to FanDuel but they ended up losing an estimated $5 million on the Super Bowl when the Patriots defeated the Rams 13-3, covering the three-point spread.
Because PointsBet has the highest future odds for Duke, it’s one of the few sportsbooks that has a large liability on the Blue Devils winning it all.
“Duke is our second worst liability,” said Shell. “We’ve taken a lot of money on Gonzaga at +600. We’ve taken the most bets on Duke by far though. They make up over 50 percent of our outright tournament winner bets. They are just over 25 percent of our liability and right above of them is Gonzaga.”
Here is a breakdown of how the NCAA Tournament is being bet at some of the top sportsbooks in Las Vegas and New Jersey.
MGM
Jay Rood, MGM’s vice president of race and sports
Rood told us the MGM saw an initial wave of bets when they put up the opening numbers Sunday, but nothing like what he expects to see on Thursday and Friday.
During this time of year, Rood actually fears public money over the sharps because so many people bet on the NCAA Tournament. He compares it to a presidential election.
“The sharps are more like the electoral college and the public is the popular vote. During this time of year the public is considerably more dangerous if they all lineup on one team. I can see Florida State (-10.5 over Vermont) and Virginia Tech (-11 over St. Louis) being two of those games this year.”
The MGM took a $1.2 million bet on the Super Bowl. Rood points out that when they accept a wager of that size, it’s not “sharp” money, which is how it was reported in most media outlets.
“The really big bets we take aren’t from the sharps. We have limits for sharp bettors that we’re comfortable taking. Those kinds of large bets are from our high-valued casino customers who generally have an established relationship with us.”
Rood said an ACC team is the MGM’s biggest liability in the futures market but it’s not Duke.
“We actually do pretty well with Duke. Our biggest problem is one of their ACC rivals with Virginia. We had some fairly big play on Virginia at 12/1 a couple of months ago. That’s basically the one team we want to avoid. Obviously, we’ll work at mitigating that as we move along through the tournament.”
(USA TODAY Sports)`The sharp bettors are on Northeastern but Rood expects the public to back Kansas.
“The Wisconsin-Oregon game is getting a lot of action simply because it’s close to pick. Oregon will probably end up closing as the favorite by the time the game tips off. The Kansas game has been moving some against Northeastern. The sharps are lining up on Northeastern. We were at 8.5 and it went down to -7. This is shaping up to be a Pros vs. Joes game with the public taking Kansas. Most of this is being driven by sharp money. We’ll see by Wednesday who the public lands on. I expect it to be Kansas.”
Rood thinks this year’s field is top-heavy with the top-8 seeds all being strong. The one team that he thinks could get upset earlier than expected? Tennessee.
“Tennessee isn’t in the greatest of form right now. They could be susceptible to having problems in the Sweet 16. I don’t see Cinderella showing up in this tournament too much. I think a lot of the bigger names will march towards the Elite 8 and Final Four. Duke and Virginia are my two I would definitely expect to show up in Minneapolis.”
Who does Rood like to reach the Final Four? He’s going chalk this year.
“My bracket is pretty chalky. I got Duke and Virginia facing off with the other two participants being UNC and Michigan. Three ACC teams and Michigan. Michigan should be alright as long as they don’t see Michigan State again.”
Caesars Palace
Matt Lindeman, Caesars’ manager of trading
Lindeman said Caesars is in good shape when it comes to college basketball futures. That is, unless a Cinderella like New Mexico State makes a magical tournament run.
“In general, we are in a great position with our futures. Tennessee and North Carolina are our worst results of the 1-2 seeds, but we still win a decent amount to both. The only two teams that would crush us at this point are Murray State and New Mexico State, who weren’t listed in our previous market. We still have a handful of teams we need to fade in the NIT but dodged our biggest liability in Providence.”
Caesars offered the best future odds in Las Vegas on Duke in January and February. While Duke winning isn’t the best result for Caesars, Lineman said they won’t fare as well as other books in Las Vegas.
“Duke has the highest number of tickets written and over double the handle of any other team in the market. That said, we offered the best price in town on the Blue Devils for most of January and February as a way to generate more handle for the entire market, so I would imagine we don’t fare as well as other books in town if they win the title. I’m personally skeptical of a freshman-laden, poor perimeter shooting team winning six straight in the tournament.”
The sharps are taking the points with the underdogs so far and Lindeman says the public is backing a couple short favorites. However, both sharp and public money will be backing one mid-major school, making that game one of Caesars biggest first round-needs.
“We’ve taken a few sharp bets on some of the lesser-known mid majors so far. Murray State, Vermont, Montana, and Abilene Christian have all seen sharp action Thursday, and NMSU and Liberty Friday. The public bettors will also be on Murray with everyone wanting to back Ja Morant; I’d imagine Marquette will be one of our bigger needs in the first round. The public is also liking Syracuse (which is understandable given their recent success in the tournament), Iowa State, and UC Irvine.”
Like the MGM, Lindeman said public bettors pose a bigger threat this time of year because of the amount of wagers that are placed.
“Public bettors definitely pose a bigger threat than sharps this time of year. Even if most of the bets are $50 or less, the massive volume leads to us having some of our biggest decisions of the year opposite the public side. Most experienced bookmakers aren’t too concerned with balancing that action, as balancing square money with public money is a sure-fire way to cut into your hold long term.”
If it’s March Madness, that means people are taking a chance on longshots. At Caesars, bettors are hoping a couple double-digit seeds make some noise in the tournament.
“The craziest wagers we’ve taken for a decent amount of money are New Mexico State to win it all at 1000/1, and NMSU and St. Mary’s to win their regions at 100/1. There are a handful of tickets on NC Central, North Dakota State, and Fairleigh Dickinson; some people just can’t help taking a stab at the longest shot on the board.”
Lindeman is on board with this being a top-heavy tournament but he does believe a couple of sleepers have a chance to make a tournament run.
“I think this is one of the top-heaviest tournaments we’ve had in a while. There is a bigger gap between the 1-2 seeds and 4-6 seeds than we’re accustomed to seeing. It wouldn’t surprise me if the 11-13 seeds make more noise than usual. Buffalo is one team that I think could make a surprise run to the Elite 8. Northeastern is my double digit Sweet 16 pick.”
Most people think Duke is a good bet to reach the Final Four. Lindeman says watch out for a familiar opponent that could knock the Blue Devils out of the tournament much earlier than expected.
“For the sake of being different, I’ll take Virginia Tech to come out of Duke’s region. They’ve beaten the Blue Devils once already, will be getting Justin Robinson back, and allow most of their points via the 3-pointer, which the Dukies struggle with. Aside from that, it’s mostly chalk for me – Gonzaga, Virginia, and my Kentucky boys, with the Zags beating Kentucky in the final.”
Golden Nugget
Tony Miller, Golden Nugget sportsbook director
Miller said the Golden Nugget has also seen steady action early since the opening numbers were released on Sunday night.
“It’s been kibbles and bits as far as the public goes. Nothing yet as far as large bets go but those will come. On the very first day you tend to see sharp play. It was pretty steady this year. Not a whole lot of number movement. I was happy with the numbers we put up. So far, so good.”
The line on the Villanova game has dropped from -5.5 to -4.5 on Wednesday but Miller said the ticket count favors the defending champions, suggesting sharps are on the other side with St. Mary’s.
“Villanova has got a lot of play. The ticket count is 3 to 1 in favor of them over St. Mary’s laying the five points. I don’t know if it’s so much people like Villanova as it’s St. Mary’s shouldn’t really be there. You put a Big East school versus a West Coast team that’s usually what happens.”
Miller said the Golden Nugget’s biggest futures liability is with a team in the East Region but like other sportsbooks, it’s not Duke. It’s No. 2 seed Michigan State.
“We took a large bet on Michigan State to win it all earlier in the year. We lose in the six-figure range on them. The other ones we get spanked on pretty good is Wofford and St. Mary’s.”
Miller said March Madness is his favorite time of year because of all the different wagers that come in from casual bettors gambling on the NCAA Tournament. The craziest bets he’s taken so far?
“I took a $10 bet ton Prairie View to win $40,000. They really don’t have a chance but people bet them because of the odds. I took another $10 bet on Colgate to win $40,000. People like to shoot BBs at the moon and see what happens.”
Miller agrees this looks like a year for chalk but he’s hoping two teams he personally bet futures on earlier in the season can make a run. Miller is sitting on No. 3 seed Houston at 500/1 to win it all.
“One of the teams I bet on personally is Houston. Another team I like that I’ve been touting all year is Buffalo. I got Houston at 500/1 and Buffalo at 300/1. Houston is now 35/1 and Buffalo at 100/1.”
Miller likes Tennessee to cut down the nets but he’s not buying Gonzaga as a No. 1 seed.
“I’m going with Tennessee. I liked them all year. I know they blew it in the SEC title game but this kid Grant Williams for Tennessee is a stud. I’d like to see Tennessee go all the way. A lot of people love Gonzaga and Nevada in the West Coast. I think Nevada loses their first game to Florida and I’m not big on Gonzaga at all. I don’t think they’re a true No. 1 seed. I really don’t. There are other teams better than them.”
(USA TODAY Sports)`DraftKings
Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of sportsbook operations
This is the first year residents in New Jersey can legally bet on March Madness and Avello is expecting a big turnout, especially with mobile wagering being an option in the Garden State.
“We’re seeing a lot of action so far and we’re certain to see even more. I’ve been through this tournament for many years. The first two days is when you have the most games. That’s when people are lined up to make bets and that’s when the mobile will have robust action. That’s why the first four days are the most exciting of the tournament.”
Avello said the reason people aren’t betting Duke in the futures market all comes down to value. He thinks most people do believe Duke will win it all but with such low odds, they simply aren’t attractive to bettors.
“If you really want to score on future, you have to go down the board a little. All that being said, your team has to win it. You have to look at your brackets and find out who might have a shot to get to at least the Final Four. At that point you can hedge back a little.
You have to look a little deeper though at teams like Iowa State and Auburn in the 50/1 range and hope they can deep in the tournament.”
When DraftKings put up its opening lines Sunday night, it was mostly sharp bettors taking the games and they hit the big underdogs early.
“When we put the numbers up there was some movement early. The sophisticated bettor tries to get an edge on the number. Like Iona grabbed early money but that will come back on North Carolina. The same with Virginia and Gardner-Webb. We took Gardner-Webb money early but that’s all going to come back with the public bettors taking Virginia. The early money comes from sophisticated bettors then the number settles.”
`PointsBet
Ron Shell, PointsBet vice president of customer and insights
PointsBet is the king of prop bets in New Jersey. The book will offer prop bets on different players during the NCAA Tournament but Shell said no one comes close to Zion in terms of popularity.
“His props are unbelievable. Each game we offered Zion props in the regular season we got over 100 bets on them. If we offered another player, they would get around 10 bets. He’s 10x more popular than any other player. We’ve taken more than 50 bets in less than a day. People love him to record a double-double in the first game. They also like him to score 50 points and 20+ rebounds in the first two rounds.”
Shell said there are two games seeing the most early action at PointsBet with one involving local favorite Villanova.
“There’s been a lot of interest in two particular games for us. The first one is Murray State and Marquette. JA Morant is as popular as any player besides Zion. A lot of people are on the Murray State +4 bandwagon. The other one probably because it’s a local team is the Villanova game. We’ve taken a lot of money on Villanova not only versus St. Mary’s but to win the National Championship and to make the Final Four.”