10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 26th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, May 26, 2016.
1. If you’re a cash game player, the early slate is the way to go on Thursday, simply in order to fit in Jose Fernandez. The Marlins ace will face a righty-heavy Rays team that fans at a 25.7% clip against righties this year, the second-highest rate in MLB. In the first four seasons of his MLB career, Fernandez has been to righties what Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale have been to lefties: virtually unhittable. His 11.9 K/9 against RHB is the highest rate among active starters (minimum 150 IP), as is the .478 OPS he’s allowed to that handedness of hitter.
2. If you’re playing the all-day slate, there’s one more quasi-ace to consider: Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole. Cole had a truly weird game in his last start, earning a win in 7 innings, striking out zero, allowing 10 hits, against the Rockies. The last time a player went such a line was Bill Wegman for the Twins in a game against the Royals on July 11, 1992. Prior to that? Ed Figueroa on July 12, 1974. So yeah, the game was an anomaly. But for someone whose velocity is elite, it always feels like Cole underwhelms in the strikeout department. Of the 12 SPs in MLB this year whose average fastball velocities exceed 94.0 mph, Cole’s 7.26 K/9 is third-worst – only Carlos Martinez (6.56 K/9) and Yordano Ventura (6.29 K/9) are worse.
3. Drew Smyly is tied for the seventh-longest average distance allowed on batted balls this year at 236 feet. This speaks more to his flyball tendencies than to his quality as a pitcher, but take a look at the pitchers who surround him in the top 10 on that list: Chris Young (259 ft.), Shelby Miller (256), Jered Weaver (249), Eric Surkamp (242), John Danks (241), Nick Tropeano (239), Matt Wisler (236), Matt Shoemaker (235), Jeremy Hellickson (234). One more red flag with Smyly: he hasn’t been efficient as of late, as he’s failed to see the sixth inning in three of his past four starts.
4. Lance McCullers has yet to give up a home run at home to a left-handed batter at home, and he’s faced 145 of them. Lefty batters have slashed a pitiful .160/.241/.237 against McCullers at Minute Maid Park in his career. True, most of the Orioles’ power comes from the right side of the plate (Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones), but McCullers’ success against lefty power could neutralize perhaps Baltimore’s biggest power threat, Chris Davis.
5. If Devon Travis is leading off for the Blue Jays on Thursday, he should be a popular play across the industry. Since the start of 2015, he ranks third among second basemen with at least 230 PAs with a 135 wRC+, ahead of Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy, Jason Kipnis, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler. We have to assume some regression (Travis has 238 PAs in that time, and none of the aforementioned players have fewer than 600), but even so, against CC Sabathia, Travis is in a great spot on Thursday. And if you want to go even further down the small sample rabbit hole, consider this: Travis’s 161 wRC+ against lefties ranks behind only Jose Altuve and Logan Forsythe (both with a 169 wRC+) since 2015. Okay, it’s a really small sample (Travis has 63 PAs against LHP), so take it for what it’s worth.
6. The Boston Red Sox have seven qualified hitters batting over .300 against right-handed pitching this year – only one other team in MLB (the Pirates) have 4 batters with averages north of .300 against RHP. This does not bode well for Jonathan Gray, who, in his last start, shattered everyone’s “He’s an elite pitcher away from Coors – just look at his road ERA!” arguments by surrendering nine earned runs in 3.1 innings to the Cardinals, causing his road ERA to balloon from 2.18 to 4.21. (Lest you think I’m pointing fingers, I’ve made the same argument about Jonathan Gray in this very column). For the record, the Red Sox batters mentioned above are David Ortiz (.341), Travis Shaw (.333), Xander Bogaerts (.331), Jackie Bradley (.325), Dustin Pedroia (.309), Mookie Betts (.304), and Hanley Ramirez (.302).
7. The Pirates player with the best batting average against LHP since 2015 isn’t Andrew McCutchen, or Starling Marte, or Jung Ho Kang – it’s Francisco Cervelli, with a .325 average in 144 PAs that would rank 13th in all of MLB if he had enough at-bats to qualify. On a day (every day?) when the catcher position is weak, Cervelli makes for a safe cash game option against Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin, owner of the highest hard contact rate in MLB this year (40.8 Hard%).
8. Since 2015, Jose Abreu has a .287 wOBA against LHP – that’s fourth-worst among first basemen with a minimum of 160 PAs against lefties. Only Logan Morrison (.229 wOBA), Mark Canha (.262 wOBA), and C.J. Cron (.285 wOBA) have been worse. He’ll face a lefty with a pitch count (Danny Duffy) on Thursday, and after that, he’ll face one of the best bullpens in MLB, making him a risky proposition tonight.
9. Just like yesterday, Thursday’s evening slate is starved for starting pitching, which will lead many to flock to Kevin Gausman. But Gausman faces an Astros lineup teeming with dangerous righties, and he has demonstrated some reverse splits in his MLB career – the .360 wOBA he’s allowed to right-handed hitters since 2015 is tied for 10th-worst in MLB. The players he’s tied should give you some pause before locking him into your lineups (especially in tournaments given his likely inflated ownership): it’s erstwhile White Sox starter John Danks and current Rockies gas can Christopher Rusin.
10. One righty Gausman will have to navigate is Jose Altuve, who is in the midst of an 0-for-18 slump. For many hitters, going hitless in 18 PAs is a blip on the radar, but for Altuve, it’s a freak occurrence – it’s his longest hitless streak since May 2013.