10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for February 13th

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This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Monday, February 13th.

1. For the first time in his career, Nikola Jokic has played 34 or more minutes in three straight games. The cupboard is pretty bare in the Nuggets’ frontcourt, as Kenneth Faried is out, Darrell Arthur is questionable, and the team just traded Jusuf Nurkic for Mason Plumlee, who is unlikely to play in this game), it seems like a given that Jokic plays 30 minutes in this one. And that’s good news for his fantasy value: Jokic has 40+ FanDuel points in 14 of the 15 games that he’s reached 30 minutes this year, and he’s scored 50+ FanDuel points in nine of those games.

2. The Denver Nuggets (led by Jokic, obviously) score more second-chance points than any team in the NBA (15.8), and their 29.1 percent offensive rebound rate leads the NBA; the Golden State Warriors allow the fifth-most second-chance points of any team in the NBA (13.9) and the third-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4). As long as Jokic can avoid foul trouble, this has all the makings of a massive fantasy day.

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3. Dwight Howard has 10+ rebounds against Portland in 17 straight games dating back to December of 2009. Obviously, there’s absolutely zero predictive value in looking at how a player performed against a franchise nearly a decade ago, but still…it’s an impressive streak. This was already one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking 23rd in rebounding differential, and now they’ve traded Mason Plumlee, who led the team in rebounding. Howard should be poised for a monster game, and given his recent string of underwhelming performances, he comes at a reasonable price ($6,800 at FanDuel, $6,900 at DraftKings).

4. There are four players in the NBA who average 15+ points, 7+ rebounds, and 6+ assists per game. Three are easy (Westbrook, Harden, LeBron). The fourth player on the list is not Giannis, or Durant, or Butler; it’s Nicolas Batum. Obviously, nobody is arguing that Batum is in the same class as any of these players, but the way he can fill the stat sheet is underrated. On Monday, he faces the 76ers at home. While Kemba Walker is often cited as having drastic home/road splits, since joining the Hornets, Batum’s splits have been even more pronounced, as he averages 28.7 FanDuel points on road, compared to 34.9 at home.

5. Frank Kaminsky has put up more than 30 FanDuel points on eight occasions this year; six of them have been when Cody Zeller was out. Since Joel Embiid went down on January 21st, the 76ers have allowed 30 FanDuel points to guys like Nene, Salah Mejri, and Robin Lopez. Dewayne Dedmon came close on two separate occasions (28.5 and 29.7 FanDuel points). If he gets the start (which seems likely given how well he’s played in this role recently), it feels like he’ll reach 30 FanDuel points with ease, which would be a solid return on his $4,800 price tag. At DraftKings, however, he’s been priced up to $5,700, which really puts a cap on his upside.

6. Over the last three games, Dario Saric is averaging 21.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Only six other players in the NBA have matched those numbers during that span: Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and DeMarcus Cousins. The difference between Saric and these players (well, one difference) is that it’s only taken him 24.9 minutes per game over this stretch to put up those numbers, while every other player on that list has averaged 31 minutes per game. Can we expect the 56.1 percent shooting he’s at during this three-game stretch to continue? Of course not; he was a 37.7 percent shooter before this recent hot streak. But with Joel Embiid out again on Monday, and with Jahlil Okafor unlikely to play as the Sixers continue to shop him around, Saric should see an increased role against the Hornets. The price hike (he’s up to $5,100 at FanDuel and $5,200 at DraftKings) probably makes him more of a tournament play, though.

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7. Evan Fournier has averaged 33.8 FanDuel points per game against the Heat since 2015-16; that’s his highest mark against any opponent. The Magic/Heat contest won’t be one of the more anticipated of the evening, but with Aaron Gordon questionable and Fournier’s price still hovering in the $5K range, he makes for a fine cash game option on Monday, albeit one without the ceiling of a Tim Hardaway or Will Barton, both of whom are in Fournier’s price range.

8. John Wall has a 41.7 true shooting percentage in 11 career games against the Thunder, which is his lowest against any team by a wide margin; the next-lowest is the Spurs at 47.4. For some perspective – the 5.7 that separates the Thunder from the second-place Spurs (47.4 TS%) is roughly the same distance that separates the Spurs from the 18th-place Heat (53.3 TS%). Obviously, Wall has never been known as a shooter, and he can put up points in other ways (when these teams met earlier in the year, he racked up 15 assists and six rebounds to go with his 15 points, totaling 43.7 FanDuel points). Still, it makes you wonder if he’s expending so much on the defensive side trying to contain Westbrook that his offensive game suffers. He’s only exceeded 20 points in one of 10 career games against Westbrook. Stacking both point guards and hoping for a high-scoring slugfest is an interesting way to go for tournaments, but it’ll be tough to justify Wall in cash on a day when point guard seems loaded with high-upside options who are priced more affordably (Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry, and Mike Conley to name a few).

9. In his last game against the Warriors, Westbrook set the record for most games of 10+ turnovers on Saturday with his fifth such game this year, passing James Harden. The Wizards rank second in the NBA with 8.6 steals per game. If the over/under for Westbrook turnovers is set at 9.5, which side are you on?

10. The Milwaukee Bucks have allowed an opposing center to grab 20 or more rebounds on two occasions in the past two years; both times, that player was Andre Drummond. With 23 rebounds in a game in each of the past two years, it’s safe to say that the Bucks don’t have an answer for Drummond on the glass. And while Milwaukee has been bad at rebounding all year (they’re in the bottom third of the NBA in rebounding differential), they’ve been worse since the calendar flipped to February, during which time they’ve averaged just 37.7 rebounds per game, the fewest of any team in the NBA. On a day when we have Anthony Davis, and Marc Gasol against Brooklyn, and Dwight Howard against Portland, and a few decent cheap options in Frank Kaminsky and Dewayne Dedmon, Drummond could fly a bit under the radar. If he has one of his massive games (as he did on Wednesday when he put up 24 points and 17 rebounds against the Lakers), Drummond could be a difference maker in tournaments.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.

Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.

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About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.