10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 13th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Monday, March 13th.
1. The Los Angeles Lakers have allowed opposing centers to put up 20 points and 10 rebounds 13 times, more than any other team in the NBA. Nikola Jokic has 20 and 10 in three games in a row, and in this matchup, 20 and 10 feels like his floor (and for what it’s worth, he far exceeded those numbers when he faced the Lakers on January 17th, when he scored 29 points and grabbed 15 boards). And that’s not even to mention the fact that Jokic could rack up the assists, as he’s one of the better passing big men the league has seen in some time. In fact…
2. Jokic’s 27.9 assist percentage is second-best ever by a center; only Vlade Divac, with a 28.7 assist percentage for the Lakers in 2003-04, has had a better season among centers in that regard. The minutes volatility has kept his price tag reasonable ($10,000 at FD, $10,400 at DK), and I can’t think of any better players to begin a cash game lineup with tonight.
3. Speaking of big men who can pass, Julius Randle has 17 games of 6+ assists this year; in the rest of his career combined, he’s had three such games. He’s on an 11-game streak of multiple assists, which is his third double-digit streak of multiple assist games this year. The ability to put up assists, in addition to Jos always-present 20/10 upside, would seem to raise Randle’s floor in what should be a game with tons of back-and-forth action, as the implied total is currently at a ridiculous 231 points. For what it’s worth (which, I’ll be honest, may not be much), the Nuggets give up 3.77 assists per game to opposing fours, which is second-most in the NBA.
4. D’Angelo Russell is the first Lakers player since Kobe Bryant in 2006-07 to post four games of six or more three-pointers in a season. He’s become more offensive-minded since the Lakers traded Lou Williams, as evidenced by the 18.1 shots per game since Williams’s departure (up from 12.7 in hands played with Williams). Russell has seven games of 40+ FanDuel points this year (compared to two all of last season) despite averaging just 27.4 minutes per game, which is down from 28.2 per game, and the Nuggets rank second-to-last in the NBA in DvP against point guards, meaning another 40-FanDuel-point game, as he had when these teams last met on January 31st, isn’t out of the question.
5. Since February 10th, Gary Harris has shot the ball 10 or more times and hit 50 percent of those shots in nine of his 14 games. Only one player has more games of double-digit shots and better than 50 percent shooting during that stretch: Karl-Anthony Towns, who, for obvious reasons, is taking many more high-percentage shots than Gary Harris). He’s also reached 5x value in 9 of 14 games, and his 35.6 FanDuel points on Saturday was the second-highest total of his career. The 2.5-FanDuel-point performance of March 4th is looking more and more like an outlier, and while he may not have tournament upside, it’s difficult to envision him disappointing given the game environment in Denver tonight.
6. In John Wall’s last four games against Ricky Rubio, here are his assist totals: 10, 12, 16, 18. He’s averaging 11 assists per game against Minnesota, which is his second-best when sorted by opponent for his career. His salary at FanDuel ($10,700) is a little tough to stomach, but consider this: in the month of March, Wall is taking 20 shots per game (his second-most ever in a single month), and less than halfway through the month, he’s already posted three 30-point games in March. That’s tied for the most 30-point games Wall has ever had in a month. Wall is trying to put his team on his back at this point in the season, and in a high-total game (over/under is currently at 214) with a tight spread (the Wolves are favored by one), Wall should be considered an elite play, even though he may be tough to fit in for cash given all the other options at point guard (Russell, Patty Mills, Jamal Murray, Jordan Clarkson to name a few).
7. Jimmy Butler has returned 5x on his salary just one time since February 1st (and even then, he did it by the skin of his teeth, putting up 45 FanDuel points at $9,000 against Golden State on March 2nd). Jimmy Butler also put up 81.4 FanDuel points in a game versus Hornets earlier this year. In an alternate universe where DFS existed through all of NBA history, only Hakeem Olajuwan (82 FD points in 1990), Shaq (82.5 in 1994), and David Robinson (85.3 in 1993) would have topped Butler’s performance in a game against Charlotte. However, Dwyane Wade did not play on that game. Given the mess that the Bulls are currently in, it’s going to be tough to click on any Bulls player.
8. If Willie Cauley-Stein reaches 27 minutes, it will be the first time in his career that he’s played 27 minutes in six straight games.
9. Since March 4th, Nicolas Batum is averaging 19.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game; the only other players who match those per-game totals during that stretch are James Harden, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Russell Westbrook. Batum is always a high-floor option at the difficult-to-fill shooting guard position, but he’s always priced just a bit too aggressively. In order to return 5x value on his FanDuel salary of $7,300, he’ll need to put up 36.5 FanDuel points tomorrow, something he’s done twice in the past five games, but just barely (36.8 and 40.2 FD points), and this in the midst of a stretch when he’s been at his best. Furthermore, the Bulls are a top-five team in DvP against shooting guards, and there’s a chance he sees some Jimmy Butler defense.
10. Since 2015-16, the Jazz’s defensive rating in games Rudy Gobert has played this year is 104.1, which would be tied for third-best in the NBA during that stretch; in games without Gobert, their defensive rating is 110.2, which would be tied for fifth-WORST in the league. While “Do Not Roster Players Against the Jazz” is an early lesson taught in NBA DFS 101, if Gobert sits tonight, we have to throw the rule book out the window. In such a case, Blake Griffin (who is one of just four players in the NBA with three games of 50+ FD points against the Jazz since 2015-16) and DeAndre Jordan (who, in his last game, became the first player this year to have 16 games of 20+ rebounds, and could be matched up against Jeff Withey) become interesting tournament plays on a night with enough value that you can roster any mid- to high-priced player you want.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.