10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 6th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Monday, March 6th.
1. Since February 10th, teams are making 15 three-pointers per game against the Atlanta Hawks; that’s a whole 2.7 more threes per game than the team that has allowed the second-most during that stretch (the Pacers, at 12.7 allowed per game). Just to illustrate how much worse the Hawks have been than any other team at giving up the three-ball recently, consider this: the difference of 2.7 threes that separates the Hawks from the Pacers is the same difference between the Pacers and the Memphis Grizzlies, who have allowed the 14th-most threes of any team during that span (9.6). Teams have found a weakness in the Hawks’ inability to guard the perimeter, and they’ve exploited it. And now, the Hawks have to face the Splash Brothers, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who have attempted the most (Curry, 601) and fifth-most (Thompson, 483) this year. This will not end well for the Hawks.
2. Mike Conley has taken 15+ shots in 11 of his past 16 games; last season, in 56 games played, he had 11 games of 15+ shots total. Conley is clearly looking to score more this season, and while he doesn’t have the elite usage rate of some of the some of the other high-end point guards in the league, he’ll be graded on a curve on Monday as he’s in a pace-up matchup against a Nets team that ranks dead last in DvP against the point guard position. Furthermore, he’s coming into the game in great form; since February 26th (Conley’s last four games), he’s averaging 28.2 points and 6 assists, numbers matched only by Westbrook, Kyrie, LeBron, and Lillard. Conley is viable for cash, and if he doesn’t become too chalky as the day progresses, he’s got tournament upside, as well.
3. Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz have allowed a center to exceed 40 FanDuel points just one time this season (Nikola Jokic, with 51.2 FanDuel points); the team that has allowed the next-fewest games of 40+ FanDuel points to centers is the Memphis Grizzlies, who have allowed five. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins have faced Rudy Gobert a combined three times this season. The highest FanDuel point total of those three games, and the highest FanDuel point total was just 36.8, by Davis on February 8th (and he needed six blocks to even reach that number). If you read enough DFS content today, you’ll undoubtedly hear someone endorse one of these two as a low-owned tournament option, but it feels like a “Don’t get cute” situation, where fading the entire situation is the best course of action.
4. In six games against the Detroit Pistons over the past two seasons, Jimmy Butler has averaged 47.8 FanDuel points per game; that’s his highest fantasy output against any opponent (min. 4 games). The Pistons represent a tough matchup, ranking in the top five in the NBA against both shooting guards and small forwards, and this won’t be a fast-paced affair, as both the Bulls and Pistons rank in the bottom third of the NBA in pace. However, Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo are both listed as game-time decisions. Per RotoGrinders CourtIQ, when both Rondo and Wade are off the court this season (435 minutes), Butler has an absurd 36.8 percent usage rate. Small forward has some decent-to-good mid-range options (Terrence Ross, Mo Harkless, Khris Middleton to name a few), but if Rondo and/or Wade is out, Butler vaults into must-play territory.
5. Kawhi Leonard has played three games in March, and he’s exceeded 20 field goal attempts in all three games; last season, he only recorded 20+ field goal attempts over an entire month one time (coincidentally also in March of 2016, when he put up 20+ shots in six games). Leonard’s usage rate is up nearly six percentage points from last season, when he set a career high with a 25.8 percent usage rate (he’s at 31.2 percent this year). He’s returned no less than a 5.6x value on his salary in each of the past three games, and on Monday, he’s in what should be a fast-paced, up-and-down affair with the Rockets. If Jimmy Butler becomes the chalk at small forward, Kawhi could represent a nice pivot at much lower ownership at FanDuel, where he’s priced just at just $100 more than Butler (compared to DraftKings, where he’s a whole $1,000 more than Butler).
6. While we’re here, here’s one more Kawhi note: in his last game, he set a career high with 66.5 FanDuel points. His line of 34 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 6 steals, and 1 block has been matched by just four players ever: James Harden (2014), Charles Barkley (1988), Hakeem Olajuwon (1987), and Alvin Robertson (1986).
7. Kristaps Porzingis averages just 27.2 FanDuel points per game on the second games of back-to-backs this year. In games where he’s had at least one day of rest, he averages 5.6 more FanDuel points per game, up to 32.8. Given Porzingis’s performance on Sunday, when he recorded 24 points, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks en route to 47 FanDuel points, his $6,700 salary seems like a bargain. But Porzingis’s struggles in back-to-backs are a bit of a concern, even in a favorable matchup against Orlando, who ranks in the bottom six of the NBA in DvP against both power forwards and centers.
8. Khris Middleton’s 68.8 true shooting percentage over the past three games leads all players who have played as many minutes per game as him during that stretch. He’s played 30+ minutes in each of his last three games, and at FanDuel, he’s returned 7.0x, 8.2x, and 5.2x value on his salary during that stretch, due in part to the 2.3 steals per game over his last three. It’s always tough to predict steals, but for what it’s worth, the 76ers allow the second-most steals per game to opposing small forwards and the third-most steals per game to opposing shooting guards, and they turn the ball over 16.9 times per game, second-most in the NBA. FanDuel has been slow to adjust Middleton’s salary, and at just $5,600, he’s a tough fade, assuming we he plays his full complement of minutes.
9. Since February 23rd, Ish Smith is averaging 1.2 FanDuel points per minute; the only point guards who have been better are Westbrook, Kyrie, Harden, Steph, Lillard, and Wall. If given minutes, we’ve seen Ish put up some gaudy assist numbers (he’s got 13- and 16-assist games in two of his past five), and that makes his matchup with the Bulls an especially intriguing one, as the Bulls allow 9.58 assists per game to point guards, second-most in the NBA. Still, until he’s able to fully wrest the starting gig from Reggie Jackson, he should be reserved for tournaments.
10. In three meetings with Spurs this season, James Harden has two triple-doubles; he’s the only player besides Magic Johnson to notch two triple-doubles against the Spurs within the same season (Magic did it twice, in 1980-81 and 1983-84). All well and good, but here’s the issue: if Harden puts up around 50 FanDuel points (as he’s done in all three meetings with the Spurs this season), that simply won’t cut it given his hefty price tag at both sites ($11,900 at FanDuel, $11,500 at DraftKings). Unfortunately, James Harden is tough to click on on Monday, just as he was on Saturday against the Grizzlies.