2021-22 NBA Win Totals, Odds: Best Bets for Celtics, Blazers, and Knicks
Sportsbooks have opened win totals for the 2021-22 NBA season, allowing bettors to take their early stands. NBA betting analyst Andy Means looks at each team’s over/under before shooting his three best bets.
Russell Westbrook on the Lakers (huh?). Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan on the Bulls (whaaat?). Kyle Lowry on the Heat (yeeeeeah!). Mason Plumlee on the Hornets (ok, I’ll stop). Oh, and also what some are calling the best NBA Draft class since 2003. Clearly, a condensed NBA offseason does not necessarily mean a boring NBA offseason.
And now that oddsmakers are beginning to release Regular Season Win Totals, we can start to see 1) what the market ultimately thinks about all of this offseason shuffling, and 2) if there are any good spots for us to pounce on early. With essentially all but three teams in each conference (Pistons, Magic, Cavs in the East; Rockets, Thunder, T-Wolves (??) in the West) entering this season thinking they have a legitimate chance at the playoffs, it sure is easy to talk yourself into a bunch of over bets. Is that ultimately where the best bets are, though?
Before we dive into what’s out there, I want to note one small piece of housekeeping. Remember, after two shortened seasons, the NBA is back on track with their trusty ol’ 82-game schedule. So if part of your process is to look at the previous season’s total wins as a point of comparison, make sure you are using win percentage.
2021-22 NBA Win Totals
All NBA regular-season win totals are from PointsBet and accurate as of Thursday, August 19.
Atlanta Hawks 47.5 Wins
Boston Celtics 47.5 Wins
Brooklyn Nets 55.5 Wins
Charlotte Hornets 36.5 Wins
Chicago Bulls 39.5 Wins
Cleveland Cavaliers 28.5 Wins
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 Wins
Denver Nuggets 47.5 Wins
Detroit Pistons 25.5 Wins
Golden State Warriors 48.5 Wins
Houston Rockets 25.5 Wins
Indiana Pacers 43.5 Wins
Los Angeles Clippers 44.5 Wins
Los Angeles Lakers 52.5 Wins
Memphis Grizzlies 41 Wins
Miami Heat 48.5 Wins
Milwaukee Bucks 54.5 Wins
Minnesota Timberwolves 34.5 Wins
New Orleans Pelicans 38.5 Wins
New York Knicks 40.5 Wins
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 Wins
Orlando Magic 24 Wins
Philadelphia 76ers 51.5 Wins
Phoenix Suns 51.5 Wins
Portland Trail Blazers 44.5 Wins
Sacramento Kings 34.5 Wins
San Antonio Spurs 28.5 Wins
Toronto Raptors 37.5 Wins
Utah Jazz 52.5 Wins
Washington Wizards 34.5 Wins
Best Bets & Over/Under Predictions
Boston Celtics Under 47.5 Wins
The Celtics were a .500 team last season (36-36), and one can make the argument that the biggest offseason news for them happened off of the court. Brad Stevens moved into a front office role with the team and was replaced by first-time head coach, Ime Udoka.
Udoka has been an assistant coach in the NBA for awhile, with his most recent stop being in Brooklyn. And while I certainly won’t dispute the fact that he has damn near a 100% approval rating amongst everyone he has come across in the league, I think it is also prudent to take a “wait-and-see” approach when it comes to how good he will be as a head coach. I hope it isn’t considered a hot take when I say that going from Brad Stevens as their head coach to Ime Udoka is a net loss, at least early on.
In terms of actual player transactions, Stevens certainly didn’t waste any time in his new front office role when he traded Kemba Walker to OKC for Al Horford back in June. They also acquired Moses Brown in that trade but soon flipped him for Josh Richardson. They ultimately salvaged what I deemed to be a pretty rough offseason by luckboxing into Dennis Schroder for just a 1-year, $5.89 million contract.
Is it crazy for me to think that the Celtics might be a worse team this year than they were last year? You can probably make the argument they are a little deeper when looking at all of their moves in the aggregate—but combined with what I’m viewing as a slight downgrade at head coach—but their moves on the margins don’t really move the needle for me.
Maybe if Al Horford discovers the fountain of youth (he’s 35 years old). Maybe if Josh Richardson flashes back to his 2018-19 Miami season (the Mavs basically booted him from the rotation in their final three playoff games last season). Maybe if the Time Lord (Robert Williams) can stay healthy all season. Maybe if Udoka is an immediate wizard a la Nick Nurse. Maybe, if all (or some) of these things happen, the Celtics will be much better than I am giving them credit for.
In my opinion though, asking this version of the Celtics to go 48-34 (or better), a year after they limped to the finish line as a .500 team, is a pretty big ask. Especially with the Eastern Conference only getting tougher this season. I like the under here, and I like it a lot.
Portland Trail Blazers Under 44.5 Wins
I will start this off by acknowledging that oddsmakers are expecting the Blazers to take a step back this season. They went 42-30 last season (.583). And for them to hit the over on their number this season, that’d be a winning percentage of just .549 (going 45-37). But when looking at everything going on with this Portland team, I see waaaaaaay more downside to their upcoming season than upside.
The most obvious place to start is with Damian Lillard, who has all but asked for a trade without actually asking for a trade. It appears he is just planting the seeds these past few months, handling it as delicately as possible (remember, he has been quite outspoken against “superteams”), for when he ultimately asks out of the city, organization, and team that put his name on the map.
Does Dame ultimately get traded this season? My money would be on yes. But even if he doesn’t there are paths to Portland underwhelming this season.
The Blazers have actually been a model of consistency in the past several years. Did you know that Terry Stotts has been Dame’s only head coach in the NBA? Well, until this offseason, that is.
The Blazers finally moved on from Stotts and replaced him with first-time head coach Chauncey Billups. Chauncey was obviously an amazing NBA player, probably even a future Hall-of-Famer. But will it translate to the sidelines? Who knows.
(Quick tangent: My wife told me a story of, back when she used to work for the Bulls, she attended a Bulls vs. Pistons playoff game in Detroit with some of her co-workers. After what I am guessing were a few of Detroit’s finest brewskis, she tried to start a “Chauncey’s raunchy” chant. Again, in Detroit. Ladies and gents, sometimes you just know when you’ve found the one.)
The last thing that just screams “underwhelming” to me is this Portland roster once you get past the starting five. Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Norman Powell, Robert Covington, and Jusuf Nurkic. Even if you think that is some elite starting five (meh), a big fat yikes to what is sitting behind those guys.
Ben McLemore?
Derrick Jones?
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson?
Sorry folks, this roster just ain’t that good. And what makes it even worse is that these aren’t appealing pieces that can be used to upgrade the roster to make Dame want to stay. Sorry Blazers fans, but it makes much more sense for them to move on from Dame and CJ and just start over.
Whether or not they do that, I do not know. But I see far, far more paths to them coming in under their win total this season than I do them somehow topping it. So that’s another under for me. Sorry Chauncey, but I’m hoping your first season as a head coach is raunchy.
New York Knicks Over 40.5 Wins
I’m sorry, but did I miss the part this offseason where Thibs got fired or something? He’s still the head coach of the New York Knickerbockers, right?
It’s like people forget that Thibs is basically the one coach still in the league that treats every single regular season game like it’s the NBA Finals. There is a reason why a team built around a core group of guys like Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Reggie Bullock, Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel, Mitchell Robinson, Alec Burks (etc etc etc) had a winning percentage of .569 during the regular season and then looked like they didn’t even belong in the playoffs (losing 4-1 to the Hawks).
And yet now we think they are basically going to be a .500 team? Hmmmm, not me!
Gone are players such as Reggie Bullock (now in Dallas) and Elfrid Payton (now in Phoenix). In are Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. I must be off my rocker or something, but that seems like a pretty meaningful upgrade. They can now roll out a starting five of Kemba, Barrett, Fournier, Randle, and Robinson. Their bench, which Thibs barely likes to use anyways, consists of Noel, D-Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Burks, Taj Gibson, and Obi Toppin. Again, why do we think this team will be worse this season?
Look, I know there are some advanced analytics that say the Knicks outperformed what they “should have” done last season. And I know that, with every passing season, Thibs’ approach might start to wear on his players.
All of that being said, I just can’t envision Thibs letting this group go under .500 this season. Kemba is going to be like, “Yo Thibs, my knees have been giving me some trouble this morning after those 42 minutes last night in our 30-point win against the Rockets. Is it cool if I sit out tonight?”
To which Thibs will be like, “No way, man. We’ve got the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Garden tonight. They are an up-and-coming team with Poku, Dort, and Bazley to go alongside surefire Hall-of-Famer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. So we’ve got to keep the foot on the gas. ICE! ICE! ICE! Think you can play 44 minutes tonight?”
Thibs is watching film right now while everyone else in the league is probably on a beach. Knicks over, baby!
Image Credit: Imagn