2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Indianapolis Colts
UPDATE: Colts QB Carson Wentz is now out indefinitely with a foot injury.
After years and years of Colts fans being spoiled by stellar quarterback play, they have finally started to see what it is like these last few years to not always know what you are going to get from the player who is under/behind center. Jacoby Brissett? He is now down in Miami backing up Tua Tagovailoa. Philip Rivers? He retired and is currently at home scheming up 7-on-7 drills to run in the backyard with his family.
So to shore things up at this position, enter…Carson Wentz? That’s right!
The Colts acquired Wentz from Philly to reunite him with head coach Frank Reich, who was the offensive coordinator for Philly for two seasons, including 2017 when the Eagles won the Super Bowl. With the Colts having such a strong rushing attack and a solid defense, Reich figures to make Wentz far more of a game manager this time around. As for the rest of the Colts, Jonathan Taylor is likely to be a fantasy stud this season. Everyone past Taylor though sure feels like far more of a dart throw.
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Indianapolis Colts Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):9.5 (-150)
Games Favored:12
Games as a TD Favorite:7
Games as a TD Underdog:2
The Colts went 11-5 last season, and their over/under for wins this season sits at 9.5 (remember, 17 total games now). As you can see, they are favored in a whopping 12 of their 17 games, which I’d guess is one of the most in the entire NFL. It certainly helps when you get four games against the Texans and Jaguars, ya know? Perhaps my favorite part of the data noted above is that Indy is a touchdown favorite in seven of their games. Obviously, that signifies that they are the far superior team (as far as current perception goes, at least) in a lot of their matchups this season. I was already leaning toward liking their over, but that tidbit was pretty much the icing on the cake for me. The combination of good coaching, a great offensive line (#2 in the league, per Pro Football Focus), and a solid defense—combined with that favorable schedule—has me thinking they shouldn’t have much trouble racking up at least 10 wins.
PICK: Indianapolis Colts Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins (-150)
Indianapolis Colts Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:12
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Strong
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Below Average
Projected Points Earned:437 (Rank 8)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:6
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:6
Team Defense Rank:13
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Points Allowed:398.75 (Rank 19)
Everything about the Colts, from the head coach down to their player personnel, just screams “above average yet unspectacular”. And with a Projected Offense Rank of 12th and a Projected Defense Rank of 13th, that is what the numbers say too. I doubt we see much different from them this year when it comes to their approach to winning football games. They are going to grind their way there, buoyed by that stellar offensive line and solid defense, while trying to gain any edge they can with their analytical approach. While it may not be the most fantasy-friendly team, it’s hard to argue with the results in the win/loss column. The main question obviously lies with Carson Wentz. Does he help them or hurt them this year?
Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Carson Wentz – Underdog Rank: QB17 (ADP QB22)
RB: Jonathan Taylor – Underdog Rank: RB5 (ADP RB7)
RB: Nyheim Hines – Underdog Rank: RB48 (ADP RB45)
WR: Michael Pittman – Underdog Rank: WR46 (ADP WR47)
WR: T.Y. Hilton – Underdog Rank: WR56 (ADP WR61)
WR: Parris Campbell – Underdog Rank: WR72 (ADP WR65)
TE: Jack Doyle – Underdog Rank: TE29 (ADP TE36)
What’s New?: Carson Wentz, Marlon Mack (kind of)
It’s no secret that Wentz is coming off of a horrific season in Philly, what with a 16/15 TD/INT ratio. In fact, his 3.4% Int% was the second highest in the league, behind only Nick Mullens. While I’m not exactly expecting him to put up the same kind of numbers that he did the last time he played under Reich (e.g. 33 TD’s and just 7 interceptions in 2017), I’d bet we see a much improved version in his first season in the Colts blue.
After tearing his Achilles in Week 1 of last season, Marlon Mack appears to be 100% as training camp starts. His return will add plenty of depth to the Colts backfield. Remember, this is a guy who rushed for 1,091 yards and 8 touchdowns back in 2019. Regardless, he is likely to find himself behind Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines on the depth chart.
What’s Uncertain?: Who Wentz will throw the ball to
Sadly, this can be viewed as both facetious and serious. First and foremost, will he be able to keep his interceptions down? If he has as many pass attempts as Rivers did last season (543) and keeps that same Int% that I noted above (3.4%), that means he would be on pace for about 18.5 interceptions this season. That is #NotGreatBob.
And secondly, assuming Wentz is able to keep the ball in his own receivers hands, who is he going to latch on to as his “guy”? Or will there even be one? With Rivers at the helm last season, no Colts pass-catcher exceeded an 18.8% market share of targets (T.Y. Hilton). In fact, all of Trey Burton (no longer with the Colts), Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal, and Michael Pittman were bunched between the 12%-15% range. If that trend continues with Wentz under center, the best kind of Colts stack this DFS season unfortunately might just be Jonathan Taylor and the Colts D/ST.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Jonathan Taylor, Carson Wentz, Jack Doyle
Image Credit: Imagn