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2023 Miami Marlins Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-26 06:09:49

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Nick Galaida is here to break down the Miami Marlins’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

Other than a 31-29 finish to the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, the Miami Marlins have zero playoff appearances since 2003, and they have not put together a winning season across 162 games since finishing 87-75 in 2009.

In the Don Mattingly era, the franchise was 443-587. Put another way, the Marlins averaged 70 wins per 162 games since hiring him prior to the start of the 2016 campaign. However, the manager can only be blamed so much, considering that the front office had traded away Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna during his tenure. Going backward, Miami ranked 26th, 27th, 27th, 27th, 26th, 20th, and 28th in payroll during Mattingly’s time with the organization.

Heading into 2023, there is optimism surrounding the ballclub, with new leadership in the dugout and Sandy Alcantara fresh off of winning the National League Cy Young award, but a 22nd-ranked payroll and a lack of established offensive talent have this team projected for another lost season.

Below, we take a look at this roster player by player, offering insights on the team, futures market, and more!

Starting Lineup

Catcher, Jacob Stallings

In 2020 and 2021, Jacob Stallings ostensibly made strides at the plate, improving his walk rate and power metrics while posting back-to-back career bests in on-base percentage. Last season proved that these gains were likely short-lived, as he regressed across the board in a number of key areas and was even worse than his pre-breakout numbers in 2019.

At the plate, Stallings ranked in the 14th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Defensively, he ranked in the 25th percentile in both pop time to second base and framing.

Entering 2023, Major League Baseball has bigger bases and other new rule changes, which is certain to increase aggressiveness on the basepaths across the league. Stallings is even more of a liability this season than he was last year, and there is nothing from his bat that will make Marlins’ fans feel better about his defensive inadequacies.

First Base, Garrett Cooper

Last summer, Garrett Cooper was a bright spot for an otherwise anemic Miami offense. He finished the campaign ranked in the 63rd percentile in average exit velocity, 71st percentile in HardHit%, 78th percentile in xwOBA, and the 75th percentile in barrel percentage.

If there was anything to pick at in 2022, it was his struggles against left-handed pitching. Cooper had a .788 OPS and a 125 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers, but only a .624 OPS and a 79 wRC+ against southpaws.

Since 2019, Cooper owns a .274 batting average and a .794 OPS. He is far from elite, but he offers high-floor production with the bat at the cold corner for this lineup heading into 2023.

Second Base, Luis Arraez

According to Emilee Smarr of the Palm Beach Post, Manager Skip Schumaker expects Luis Arraez to be Miami’s primary second baseman this season while batting near the top of the order. Last year with the Minnesota Twins, Arraez played only 37 games at second base, compared to 65 at first base, meaning that he will be playing the keystone full-time for the first time in his career in 2023.

Regardless of his defensive capabilities, the Marlins will be happy to have Arraez, fresh off of an American League batting title, in their lineup this season. Miami ended last year ranked 27th in OPS and 26th in strikeout percentage as a team, making it a necessity that the front office add offensive talent during the winter.

Arraez will certainly help the team make more contact. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances in 2022, he led the league in both O-Contact% and Z-Contact%, making contact on more than 90% of pitches that he swung at both outside and inside the strike zone. Per Baseball Prospectus, he recorded the lowest qualified strikeout rate by any batter in a full season since 2015.

Arraez has typically offered little in terms of power production, but he did have a multi-homer game during the World Baseball Classic and his average exit velocity increased significantly from 2021 to 2022. It is possible that we have yet to see the best Arraez has to offer at the plate. He is a strong option in season-long fantasy and DFS.

Third Base, Jean Segura

After signing a one-year, $6.5 million contract with the Marlins this past winter, Jean Segura became the third-highest paid player on the roster. Entering his age-33 season, Segura still possesses elite contact skills and is a strong defender. In an injury-shortened 2022 campaign, he finished in the 88th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 83rd percentile in outs above average defensively.

Segura has been extremely durable throughout his career, aside from a broken finger last year which forced him to miss multiple months. However, he has only one season with more than 12 home runs and has never finished better than league average in exit velocity metrics. His walk rate and power numbers leave much to be desired for a player who is likely to see the vast majority of his at-bats at the hot corner in 2023.

Segura will help Miami’s offense be less strikeout prone this summer, and he has very little competition for playing time, but he will not move the needle for this team as a whole. In season-long fantasy, Segura is not a terrible option in the late rounds due to his high floor. In DFS, there are likely better options on a day-to-day basis.

Shortstop, Joey Wendle

There is little doubt that Miami will boast the highest contact rates of any middle infield combination in baseball this summer, with Joey Wendle projected to play full-time at the six. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances in 2022, Wendle ranked 27th in O-Contact% and 14th in Z-Contact%. His elite ability to make contact on pitches outside and inside the strike zone led to a career-best strikeout percentage – even though he swung at more pitches than he ever had before. Defensively, he ranked in the 83rd percentile in outs above average, with the vast majority of his playing time coming on the left side of the infield.

Wendle is not one of the premier shortstops in the league heading into 2023, but his high contact rates give him a stable floor and create the opportunity for positive luck on balls in play. Miami would be best suited to have another option in the lineup at shortstop against left-handed pitching, but that would cost money – money that the front office is not willing to spend.

Outfield, Bryan De La Cruz

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, Bryan De La Cruz is a good bet to make the Opening Day roster for the Marlins in 2023. De La Cruz’s end of season stat line looked pedestrian in 2022, but he posted a .388/.419/.719 slash line after returning to the majors following an August demotion to Triple A.

A slight mechanical tweak at the plate helped lead to higher exit velocities, fewer strikeouts, and better results across the board across the final month of the season for De La Cruz. He had six home runs, 22 RBI, and a 1.137 OPS in his final 94 plate appearances of the regular season. His O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, O-Contact%, and Z-Contact% all improved upon him being recalled, indicating that his mechanical adjustment clearly made a positive impact on his approach, allowing him to make more contact and harder contact on a more regular basis.

Still only 26 years old, De La Cruz is coming off of a season in which he ranked in the 82nd percentile in average exit velocity, 90th percentile in xwOBA, and the 84th percentile in barrel%. If his improved zone contact rates are here to stay, he could be a star in the making in South Florida.

Outfield, Jazz Chisholm

Despite having a reputation as one of the budding young stars in the game, Jazz Chisholm remains a work in progress – one with more than a few red flags. From 2021 to 2022, Chisholm regressed sharply in both his in-zone and out-of-the-zone contact rates. His swinging strike rate jumped from 12.5% to 13.7%, meaning that he was swinging through more pitches at the plate.

The obvious reason for regression in these areas was an approach that emphasized hitting the ball with more authority. His ISO increased from .177 to .282, which correlated with an increase in slugging percentage from .425 to .535 year over year.

Still, he was abysmal against southpaws, with a 45 wRC+, .519 OPS, .143 batting average, and a paltry 2.6% walk rate. Chisholm also remains extremely vulnerable against offspeed pitches, having posted a .152 batting average with zero extra-base hits against those offerings in 2022.

Chisholm has close to a zero chance to win the NL MVP award in 2023, but his 94th percentile speed makes him a threat to lead the league in stolen bases if he can stay healthy. At +2200 odds, he is likely worth a sprinkle in that market at Caesars Sportsbook.

Outfield, Avisail Garcia

There is arguably no active contract in baseball that has a lower return on investment than the one Avisail Garcia signed with the Marlins prior to last season. In his first year in Miami, Garcia played in only 98 games, posting career-worsts across the board, including a .224 batting average, .317 slugging percentage, 4.5% walk rate, and a 28.7% strikeout percentage.

Though some pundits may point to his lack of health as a contributing factor, the more pressing issue was that he saw a career-high 39.4% breaking ball percentage, against which he had a .172 batting average and a .207 slugging percentage.

Among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances in 2022, only six players had a higher ground ball percentage than Garcia. Factor in poor defense in the outfield and it becomes incredibly difficult to deliver a positive spin here.

Designated Hitter, Jorge Soler

Last season, Jorge Soler played in only 72 games, hitting .207 with a .695 OPS and a 29.4% strikeout percentage. He dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout the year, including pelvic inflammation and back spasms. Still, there is little reason to believe that a bounce back is imminent going into 2023.

In 2019, when Soler hit a career-high 48 home runs, he had career-best numbers against breaking balls – hitting 14 home runs and posting a .438 slugging percentage against the offerings. Since then, Soler has only 10 home runs against breaking balls across three seasons.

In a limited sample last year, Soler chased more often and made contact less frequently on pitches in the zone. There is little reason to have much hope here. This was a bad signing by the Marlins, similar to Garcia.

Utility, Jon Berti

Jon Berti played only 102 games last season, but still managed to steal a league-leading 41 bases. He leaves much to be desired with the bat, ranking in the 33rd percentile in average exit velocity and the 38th percentile in xwOBA, but he has elite speed and a good eye at the plate, which helped him get on base at a reasonable rate.

Expect Berti to get plenty of opportunities on the basepaths this season once again, as long as his bat and defense can remain near league average.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher, Sandy Alcantara

Last season, Sandy Alcantara won the NL Cy Young award for the first time in his career, receiving all 30 first-place votes. He threw 228.2 innings, 27.1 more innings than the next most used hurler. Among 140 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings, Alcantara ranked sixth in ERA, 15th in FIP, 14th in WHIP, and ninth in ground ball rate. He finished the year ranked in the 65th percentile in average exit velocity and the 94th percentile in chase rate – a deadly combination for a pitcher with a four-pitch mix.

In 2022, Alcantara increased his changeup usage by 5.9% against left-handed batters, holding them to a .143 batting average and a .189 slugging percentage. Making his changeup his primary offering against left-handed hitters, Alcantara improved his FIP against lefties from 4.11 to 3.10 in 2022. There is no longer a managerial advantage that can be obtained when facing Alcantara. He should be one of the best pitchers in baseball once again in 2023.

Starting Pitcher, Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto signed a minor league contract with the Chicago White Sox prior to last season and was subsequently thrust into the rotation every fifth day due to injuries. He ended up throwing 158.1 innings – his most since 2017, while delivering his best full-season run prevention metrics since 2016.

Entering his age-37 campaign with the Marlins, Cueto is likely viewed more as a veteran presence who can eat innings rather than as someone expected to replicate a 3.35 ERA from 2022. Last year, he was far worse against left-handed batters than right-handed batters, making him vulnerable against teams with the ability to stack the lineup card against him.

Still, he is capable of getting through a batting lineup multiple times and preserving the bullpen when he is healthy. Cueto should be a positive presence in the clubhouse, and will provide plenty of value to a young rotation. However, his most productive days are certainly in the rear view mirror.

Starting Pitcher, Jesus Luzardo

In 2022, Jesus Luzardo committed to his slider as his primary pitch for the first time in his career. The result was a career-best 3.32 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and a 3.12 FIP, striking out more batters than ever before. His 1.04 WHIP was, by far, the best of his young career, and he did not have concerning splits against right-handed batters, which had been a problem in past seasons.

Entering 2023, Luzardo, a former third-round draft pick, has the potential to be a top-15 pitcher in all of baseball if he can stay healthy. He is yet to throw more than 100.1 innings in a single season at the MLB level, making him unlikely to win any individual accolades. However, he is plenty valuable in season-long fantasy and DFS.

Starting Pitcher, Edward Cabrera

According to Baseball Prospectus, Edward Cabrera threw the hardest changeup of any starting pitcher in baseball in 2022, averaging 93 mph on the radar gun. In his rookie campaign, Cabrera tossed 71.2 innings at the big league level, delivering a 3.01 ERA, 4.05 xERA, and a 4.59 FIP.

His primary issues were against right-handed batters. Facing righties, he had a 6.20 FIP, 14.9% walk rate, and a 1.31 WHIP, compared to a 3.06 FIP, 7.3% walk rate, and a 0.85 WHIP against left-handed hitters. This reverse split was not something that occurred during his minor league career, offering hope that a full winter of refinement can help Cabrera take the next step in 2023.

He has already figured out how to throw his secondary offerings for strikes, in addition to establishing his dominance against left-handed batters. If Cabrera can hone-in his command this summer, he has the potential to be one of the better pitchers in the league.

Starting Pitcher, Braxton Garrett

Similar to his teammate, Braxton Garrett committed to using his slider as his primary offering for the first time in 2022. Garrett also heavily increased his sinker usage against left-handed batters while drastically cutting back on his fastball. Those adjustments, on top of lowering his arm slot and shifting his foot towards the first-base side of the rubber, helped him take an important next step towards establishing himself as a reliable piece of the Miami rotation.

Across 88.0 innings of work, Garrett had a 3.58 ERA, 4.05 xERA, 3.56 FIP, and a 1.25 WHIP. He struggled mightily against right-handed hitters, but improved throughout the course of the season. During his last seven turns through the rotation, Garrett allowed two earned runs or fewer six times – posting a 3.03 ERA, 4.04 FIP, and a 1.35 WHIP. He faced three playoff lineups in that span.

There is work to be done here, but Garrett has the makings of a strong middle of the rotation option in his future. As of this writing, he is currently battling for the fifth spot in Miami’s 2023 rotation against Trevor Rogers, with the odd-man-out heading to the bullpen to operate in a hybrid role, according to Christina De Nicola.

Starting Pitcher, Trevor Rogers

In 2021, Trevor Rogers was dominant, with a 2.64 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 2.55 FIP in 133.0 innings. In 2022, he regressed sharply, with a 5.47 ERA, 4.84 xERA, and a 4.36 FIP. On the surface, it is difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of his rapid and unexpected decline – his velocity remained consistent and his pitch usage did not change much. A deeper dive reveals a stark difference in his command.

Two years ago, Rogers did a phenomenal job locating his changeup down and away from right-handed batters. As a result, he had a 2.60 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP against righties. Last year, Rogers caught way too much of the middle-third of the plate with his offspeed offering, leading to a 4.95 FIP and a 1.61 WHIP against righties.

Though it may not feel like it, Rogers is not far away from returning to dominance on the mound. If he can shore-up his changeup command, it will help his fastball play better, which will improve his run prevention metrics across the board.

Rogers finished second to Jonathan India for NL Rookie of the Year in 2021. There is plenty of potential here in 2023. Rogers is worth a late round flier in season-long fantasy leagues. He could offer value in DFS early in the year as well.

Bullpen:

Relief Pitcher, Matt Barnes

Though Matt Barnes has a reputation as a former elite closer, there is little evidence to suggest that ever happened. Barnes has had dominant stretches during seasons throughout his career, but he has never finished with better than a 3.65 ERA. Last year, he struggled to a 4.31 ERA, 4.28 xERA, and a 3.87 FIP. He allowed far too much traffic against both right- and left-handed batters.

A change of scenery often helps a pitcher extend their career and sometimes it leads to a return to their peak. In this case, Barnes and his declining fastball velocity offer little security at the backend of the Miami bullpen heading into 2023.

Relief Pitcher, Dylan Floro

Since 2018, Dylan Floro has allowed only 14 home runs across a span of 1,060 batters faced. Since 2020, Floro owns a 2.85 ERA, 2.91 FIP, and a 1.18 WHIP. He has four pitches, three of which are strong offerings. He struggles against left-handed batters due to an ineffective changeup, but there are fewer setup men in the league better equipped to handle righties. Expect another strong season from Floro.

Relief Pitcher, JT Chargois

J.T. Chargois was limited to only 22.1 innings in 2022, due to an oblique injury, which he re-aggravated during his rehab work last May. As a result, there is not much that can be definitively concluded from the spike in his sinker usage. He did see his ground ball rate increase by over 15 percent compared to 2021, but we will need to see a larger sample before feeling comfortable making any claims about him being a reliable late-inning option in this unit.

Relief Pitcher, Tanner Scott

In each of the last two seasons, Tanner Scott has increased his slider usage at the expense of his fastball. Scott’s slider continues to be a strong offering, but his extreme command issues allow hitters to let that pitch end up out of the strike zone, leaving his fastball vulnerable when forced to throw it behind in counts. In 2022, Scott ranked in the 96th percentile in Whiff%, but ranked in the lowly first percentile in strikeout percentage. He needs to attack the zone more frequently if he wants to improve upon last season’s 4.31 ERA, 4.17 xERA, and 3.67 FIP.

Relief Pitcher, A.J. Puk

A former sixth overall draft pick, A.J. Puk has seemingly found a permanent role as a reliever – and a good one at that. Last year, Puk finished in the 83rd percentile in average exit velocity, 65th percentile in xSLG, and the 76th percentile in strikeout percentage. His elite fastball velocity and extension helped him produce a 3.12 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP across 66.1 innings of work. Not having a changeup to use against right-handed hitters limits his ceiling in this group, but Puk has a secure job due to his elite talent against left-handed batters. Still only 27 years old, there is potential for further growth.

Miami Marlins – Futures Pick & Prediction

The Marlins quietly have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball heading into 2023. Unfortunately, their offense, bullpen, and defense leave much to be desired, which has this team looking at another season in which they likely finish below the .500 mark.

In a year in which base stealing will increase exponentially, Miami does not have a catcher capable of controlling the opponent’s running game. Defensively, the Marlins have significant question marks at second base and in the outfield. In the late innings, Manager Skip Schumaker has no truly elite weapons at his disposal.

Combined, these red flags are a recipe for missing the postseason. Take the under on Miami’s win total this summer.

PICK: Under 76.5 wins (-110, DraftKings)

2023 Miami Marlins DFS Pick’em

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About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom