San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions Odds, Preview, and NFL Week 1 Betting Picks

by Andy Means (meansy53) Last Updated 2021-09-06 11:21:00

Andy Means previews San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions odds. Follow along for a matchup breakdown, team analysis, a free pick and more NFL betting tips for Week 1.

49ers at Lions Odds

After an injury-riddled 2020 season that saw them finish dead last in the NFC West with a 6-10 record, the San Francisco 49ers will kick off their 2021 season by traveling across a few time zones to face the Detroit Lions (who finished with a 5-11 record in 2020) at Ford Field. Although these teams finished with similar records in 2020, oddsmakers aren’t expecting anything close to the same thing this season: the 49ers regular season win total (10.5) is more than twice as much as the Lions (5).

With the Lions trading Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff (and a bunch of picks) this past offseason—not to mention losing the likes of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones—they are clearly now a team that is several years away from being relevant (sorry Lions fans). The 49ers, on the other hand, were in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago; their down year in 2020 was very clearly injury-related.

As a result, we are looking at a pretty huge talent discrepancy between these two rosters. But does that mean just blindly taking the 49ers in this one and laying the points is the obvious route? Well, let’s dive in and take a look.

San Francisco 49ers

As I just alluded to, the 49ers were ravaged by injuries in 2020. For example, here are how many games some of their key players missed last season:

Nick Bosa (14)

Jimmy Garoppolo (10)

Deebo Samuel (9)

George Kittle (9)

Raheem Mostert (8)

Brandon Aiyuk (4)

That list is in no way exhaustive either. It is pretty telling to me that the oddsmakers have the 49ers with the shortest odds to win the NFC West, which also just so happens to be the toughest division in the NFL. So if you can look past all of the quarterback drama that is brewing in San Francisco, this is one of the best rosters in the league when healthy.

And quarterback drama indeed! Head Coach Kyle Shanahan continues to insist that Jimmy G is his guy, but Trey Lance (despite a recent finger injury) is hot on his heels. Even if Lance doesn’t immediately take over the job, it is likely he will see some packages in every game to start getting his feet wet in real NFL games.

If it is Jimmy G at quarterback, that doesn’t mean this offense can’t still light up a scoreboard. Remember, back in the 2019 season, Jimmy G started all 16 games and had this offense racking up the second most points per game (29.9) and the fourth most yards per game (381.1) in the entire league. George Kittle is still a stud, while Raheem Mostert (with rookie Trey Sermon behind him), Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel are some pretty darn good skill positions players that round out the other key weapons in this offense. For what it’s worth, our projections at RotoGrinders have the 49ers as the ninth best offense in the league.

And the defense? Even with their fair share of injuries on that side of the ball last season, they still only allowed the fifth fewest yards per game (314.4). They weren’t as good at keeping points off the board, however, as the 24.4 points per game they allowed was more in the middle of the pack (16th most). That was last year though, and a healthy version of this defense in 2021 should be an absolute beast. Anchored by a front seven that boasts Pro Football Focus’s #1 rated linebacker group and #9 rated defensive line, our projections at RotoGrinders have this as the 4th best defense in the league.

Detroit Lions

Unfortunately, things aren’t anywhere near as rosy for this Lions roster. While they obviously acquired some valuable draft picks in the trade, going from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff is a downgrade at quarterback.

And speaking of downgrades, who exactly does Goff have to throw to now? Kenny Golladay is now with the Giants. Marvin Jones is now with the Jaguars. The Lions signed Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman in the offseason as replacements, and Perriman has actually already been cut (now with the Chicago Bears). So Detroit’s wide receiver group now officially consists of Williams, Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. I’m guessing even some diehard Lions fans are asking this question: WHO?

At least they still have T.J. Hockenson though. Taken with the 8th overall pick in the 2019 draft, Hockenson had quite the impressive sophomore campaign last season with the Lions. He played and started in all 16 games, while racking up 67 receptions (on a whopping 101 targets), 723 yards, and 6 TD’s. Is he going to make for a great fantasy football asset this season? Probably. Is he someone you want to revolve your passing game around though? Probably not.

Even with the skill positions being rounded out by two solid RB’s in the backfield—D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams—the outlook does not look promising for this Lions offense. Our projections at RotoGrinders have them as the second worst offense in the league. So even though they have been able to put together a nice offensive line (top 10, per PFF), blocking for this group of skill position players leaves a lot to be desired.

Sadly, things look just as bleak on the defensive side of the ball. Fresh off of allowing the most points per game (32.4) and yards per game (419.8) in the entire league last season, we have the Lions defense projected just 28th for 2021. Improvement…wooooooo! PFF has this defensive line ranked #24, the linebackers ranked #28, and the secondary ranked #30.

Lions fans, I think you are in store for a very long season. But hey, at least you got Cade Cunningham! (whoops sorry, wrong sport)

49ers at Lions Pick

When Week 1 NFL lines first got released, 49ers at -7.5 stood out as one of my favorites. But after actually digging into these respective rosters and situations, I think I like it even more.

For starters, I just don’t see how the Lions are able to move the ball and/or score points against this 49ers defense. The one place the Lions could have an advantage on some teams this season (their offensive line) isn’t even an advantage against the 49ers.

While I am probably slightly less enthused on the 49ers offense as a whole compared to our projections, it’s not like this Lions defense has the talent to slow them down. And I neglected to mention earlier that the 49ers also have a Top 10 offensive line (per PFF), so they absolutely have the edge in the trenches when they have the ball. As such, they should be able to move the ball at will in whichever way they see fit.

If I am scraping for ways that this game doesn’t get just flat-out ugly quite early, I suppose it is that the 49ers have to travel east for it. I’m sure there is some compelling data out there about west coast teams having to play 1:00 PM EST starts, but I’m personally throwing that crap out the window for this game. It’s Week 1, so the 49ers have all sorts of time to get acclimated to an unfamiliar time zone. And let’s not forget that they are coming off of a big letdown of a season. There’s no reason for them to be looking past any opponent, even one as bad as the Lions.

So yeah, in looking for a way that this game doesn’t heavily favor the 49ers, I’m just not seeing it. I know, it’s professional football, and anything can happen. But the talent gap here—on both sides of the ball—is just too drastic to ignore. In case you haven’t been able to tell quite yet, I want the 49ers here and am perfectly fine laying the points. Feel free to buy the hook if you want a little more safety, but I think a double-digit 49ers win is well within the cards here. I’m even interested in looking at some alternate lines that offer extremely favorable odds for the 49ers to win in a landslide.

PICK: 49ers -7.5

Image Credit: Imagn