MLB Daily Grind Down May 30th Part 2
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Tampa Bay at Miami
| Tampa Bay | Miami | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Alex Colome – | Ricky Nolasco – (3-5), 3.96 ERA, 7.36 K/9, 1.162 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (28-94 H/AB) 0.298 BA-A, 19.15 K%, 0.904 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | NO DATA | HOME | (2-2), 4.22 ERA, 1 HRA, 7 K/9, 1.125 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
TBR BvP  | TBR vs R | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored TAM -190
Pitchers
- Home Ricky Nolasco has had some success on the year but he plays for the worst team in baseball. Plus, he is a worse pitcher at home than he is on the road with a 4.22 ERA. TAM is batting .251 on the road, .254 versus right-handers, and .267 over the last 7 days. TAM ranks 5th in runs scored and has recorded the 5th fewest Ks in the league. Avoid
- Away Alex Colome is your next K per IP prospect to hit the big leagues. He has had success at every level. He walks a few too many guys which means he probably works to many pitches per batter so do not expect him to go that deep into the game. He will be cheap and he has GPP upside so he is in play and you could not ask for a better first start than one against MIA. MIA is batting .210 at home, .226 versus right-handers, and .203 over the last 7 days. MIA ranks 30th in runs scored and has recorded the 9th fewest Ks. In Play
Batters
- Home The rookie could struggle. If so then MIA will offer a ton of value tonight. Marcell Ozuna, Chris Coghlan, and Derek Dietrich have been producing.
- Away Yunel Escobar is 10-27 versus Nolasco with 1 HR. Kelly Johnson is hot producind 32.75 fp over the last week. The BvPs are favorable for Matt Joyce Jose Lobaton and Ben Zobrist as well. James Loney and Evan Longoria are both batting over .300 versus right-handers.
Toronto at Atlanta
| Toronto | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| R.A. Dickey – (4-5), 4.5 ERA, 7.69 K/9, 1.306 WHIP | Mike Minor – (5-2), 2.78 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 0.964 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (43-159 H/AB) 0.27 BA-A, 17.61 K%, 0.849 OPS-A | PvB | (15-51 H/AB) 0.294 BA-A, 9.8 K%, 0.843 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 3.55 ERA, 2 HRA, 6 K/9, 1.303 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 2.39 ERA, 3 HRA, 8.5 K/9, 0.684 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored ATL -160
Pitchers
- Home With all the great young pitchers making a splash this year, Mike Minor is not getting the run that he deserves. His 2.47 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 8.36 K/9 ratio put him with the very best in the majors and make him playable every start. On some sites where salaries are slow to adjust, he is borderline must play if there is such a thing in baseball. TOR is batting .235 on the road, .249 versus left-handers, .312 over the last 7 days with 12 HRs. They rank 12th in runs scored and have recorded the 15th fewest Ks in the league. Target
- Away I guess all this talk about R.A. Dickey ‘s Knuckleball not being effected by the dome in TOR can finally be discounted. He is 5.61 pitcher at home indoors and 3.55 on the road. While convention is not always right, baseball has long believed that a knuckleball has much better success in hot air and outdoors where the wind can create unpredictable variance. These are two things TOR does not have. Call me crazy but I think he pitches well today in ATL. ATL is batting .248 at home, .250 versus right-handers, and .246 over the last 7 days with 12 HRs. They rank 14th in runs scored and have recorded the 2nd most Ks. In Play
Batters
- Home Freddie Freeman is 9-18 versus Dickey with 1 HR. He is also hot with 23.5 fp. Brian McCann is batting .342 versus right-handed pitching. If you expect another implosion from Dickey then consider everyone in play.
- Away The Jays have been swinging the bats really well but they have also been at home. I do not trust them today on the road but they have power and anyone of them could go yard if you want to play the fade.
Milwaukee at Minnesota
| Milwaukee | Minnesota | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Field | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Kyle Lohse – (1-5), 3.76 ERA, 6.05 K/9, 1.273 WHIP | P.J. Walters – | ||||||
| PvB | (8-32 H/AB) 0.25 BA-A, 18.75 K%, 0.719 OPS-A | PvB | (1-3 H/AB) 0.333 BA-A, 33.33 K%, 0.667 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-3), 3.23 ERA, 3 HRA, 5 K/9, 1.141 WHIP | HOME | NO DATA | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIL BvP | MIL vs R | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored MIL -130
Pitchers
- Home P.J. Walters actually looked strong in his first start going 6 IP with 8 hits and 2 ER. The start was vs. DET no less but I am not buying into it. More than once, DET was just 1 timely hit away from blowing that game open. He is still a pitcher with a career ERA of 6.22 MIL is batting .237 on the road, .248 versus right-handers, and .220 over the last 7 days. MIL ranks 23rd in runs scored, and has recorded the 14th fewest Ks in the league. Avoid
- Away Kyle Lohse elbow worries me. After 4 bad starts in a row, I think I will take a pass on him until he starts pitching well again. He is historically a much better pitcher at home than on the road. He K totals are on the low side anyway so he is easy to ignore. MIN is batting .255 at home, .236 on the road, and .211 over the last 7 days. They rank 17th in runs scored and have recorded the 11th most Ks in the league.
Batters
- Home Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are both batting over .300 versus right-handers. Mauer has been hot producing 21 fp over the last week. Josh Willingham has been a little hotter producing 24.75 fp.
- Away Carlos Gomez continues his great season producing 33.5 fp over the last 7 days. Gomez, Jean Segura and Aramis Ramirez are all batting over .300 versus right-handed pitching. I would avoid Ryan Braun. The thumb seems to be bothering him. He has produced just 10.5 fp over the last week.
Kansas City at St. Louis
| Kansas City | St. Louis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 8:15 PM | ||||||
| Jeremy Guthrie – (5-2), 3.49 ERA, 4.87 K/9, 1.371 WHIP | Michael Wacha – | ||||||
| PvB | (7-35 H/AB) 0.2 BA-A, 11.43 K%, 0.514 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-2), 4.62 ERA, 10 HRA, 5.4 K/9, 1.622 WHIP | HOME | NO DATA | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| KCR BvP | KCR vs R | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored STL -170
Pitchers
- Home Michael Wacha put up some massive K/9 totals last year in A and AA. He has seen those K/9 totals dip to under 6 in AAA this year so do not expect to see that many Ks in his first start. However, his ERA was a 2.05 and his whip 0.949 so he should pitch well if he does not let his nerves get to him. KAN is batting .269 on the road, .256 versus right-handers, and .231 over the last 7 days. They rank 24th in runs scored and have recorded 2nd fewest Ks on the year. In Play
- Away Jeremy Guthrie has had 3 bad starts in a row. One of those was against the Astros. I was kind of buying into him for a moment but I am off the wagon now. I do not expect him to get hammered this afternoon but I do not think he will pitch a gem either. STL is batting .274 at home, .284 versus right-handers, and .284 over the last 7 days. STL ranks 9th in runs scored and has recorded the 7th fewest Ks on the year. Avoid
Batters
- Home Yadier Molina, David Freese, Matt Carpenter, and Allen Craig have all been hot. Molina, Carpenter, Craig, and Carlos Beltran all have plus .300 batting averages versus right-handers. All four of those players have nice home batting averages as well.
- Away Vegas has laid this kid as a huge favorite but I am not buying it. Salvador Perez, David Lough, Alex Gordan, Miguel Tejada and Lorenzo Cain all have good averages versus right-handed pitching.
Houston at Colorado
| Houston | Colorado | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coors Field | 8:40 PM | ||||||
| Lucas Harrell – (3-5), 4.63 ERA, 5.13 K/9, 1.658 WHIP | Juan Nicasio – (4-1), 4.47 ERA, 6.25 K/9, 1.323 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (13-41 H/AB) 0.317 BA-A, 12.2 K%, 0.902 OPS-A | PvB | (2-20 H/AB) 0.1 BA-A, 25 K%, 0.4 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 3 ERA, 2 HRA, 4.9 K/9, 1.292 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 3.54 ERA, 4 HRA, 8 K/9, 1.033 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| HOU BvP | HOU vs R | COL BvP | COL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 10
- Favored COL -220
Pitchers
- Home Juan Nicasio is pitching well in Coors Field. He has a 3.54 ERA at home if you can trust those numbers. He has a very low K/9 so I am not sure I would tempt fate by taking him at home tonight in a game that’s OU is 10 even if he is a -220 favorite. HOU is batting .260 on the road, .236 versus right-handers, and .255 over the last 7 days. They rank 20th in runs scored and Have recorded the 1st most Ks in the league. In Play
- Away For a minute, everyone liked Lucas Harrell. His ERA and WHIP keep elevating and I do not think a start in COL is the place to get your groove back. COL is batting .274 at home, .269 versus right-handers, and .253 over the last 7 days. They rank 8th in runs scored and have recorded the 14th most Ks in the league. Avoid
Batters
- Home Michael Cuddyer, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez have all been hot producing over 20 fp. Michael Cuddyer is batting .350 versus right-handers, and Troy Tulowitzki has a .413 batting average at home this year.
- Away Jason Castro has been hot over the last 7 days producing 23.5 fp. He is also batting .308 versus right-handed pitching. Coors Field makes anyone playable.
LA Dodgers at LA Angels
| LA Dodgers | LA Angels | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Stadium | 10:05 PM | ||||||
| Ted Lilly – (0-1), 5.63 ERA, 10.13 K/9, 2.25 WHIP | Jason Vargas – (4-3), 3.43 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 1.396 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (17-79 H/AB) 0.215 BA-A, 21.52 K%, 0.747 OPS-A | PvB | (22-64 H/AB) 0.344 BA-A, 9.38 K%, 1 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-0), 1.8 ERA, 0 HRA, 12.6 K/9, 1.6 WHIP | HOME | (3-1), 2.52 ERA, 3 HRA, 5.6 K/9, 1.15 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAD BvP | LAD vs L | LAA BvP | LAA vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored LAA -160
Pitchers
- Home I am a believer in Jason Vargas 2.52 home ERA. I watched the last game he pitched. I hate to admit it but he looked good. I am not sure I gamble on him today because of his low K/9 against a semi-hot LAD team. LAD owns a .344 BAA vs. him but most of those stats were comprised in his NLW days. LAD is batting .254 on the road, .291 versus left-handers and .270 over the last 7 days. They rank 29th in runs scored, and have recorded the 13th most Ks in the league. In Play
- Away Ted Lilly has looked okay in his first 3 starts bt at this point in his career he is a matchup play. A hot LAA team is not a good matchup and he only has 12 Ks in those 3 starts which does not excite me. LAA is batting .284 at home, .224 versus left-handers, and .275 over the last 7 days. They rank 10th in runs scored and have recorded the 13th most Ks on the year. Avoid
Batters
- Home Albert Pujols is 10-37 with 2 HRs versus Lilly. He has been producing and gains the traditional splits in his favor. Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo and Chris Iannetta have all been hot as well. Howie Kendrick is batting .326 versus left-handed pitching. and .356 at home.
- Away A .344 BAA speaks for itself . Almost everyone has good numbers. I am not betting against Vargas at home, however. Adrian Gonzalez has the best BvPs. He is also hot producing 38.25 fp over the last week. He is batting .387 versus left-handers so I would not shy off of him today because of the lefty/lefty split. Nick Punto and Scott Van Slykes are both batting over .400 versus left-handers. Matt Kemp hurt his hammy last night. He is slumping anyway so it is best to avoid him even if he does play.
