MLB Daily Grind Down: Saturday, July 13th Part Two

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-15 16:50:39

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Kansas City vs. Cleveland

7:05 PM	Kansas City – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.258	0.690	17.10%	0.55		0.257	0.751	21.90%	0.66
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.269	0.703	17.10%	0.41		0.255	0.747	22.40%	0.51
SP STATS	Guthrie – RHP					Kazmir – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.38	4.12	4.37	8.23		1.40	4.74	8.41	8.48
LAST 14 DAYS	1.20	3.72	4.71	8.37		1.28	4.22	7.06	6.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	KCR vs L		KCR BvP			CLE vs R		CLE BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – CLE -138

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Call me crazy but I think Scott Kazmir has turned a corner. He pitched some decent baseball over his last 4 starts versus some pretty tough opponents. The most telling thing is he is inducing a nice ratio of ground ball outs. He is still allowing right-handers to bat .296 against him so I am not convinced but I think he has a much better second half of the year. For no other reason then I think he is trending upward, I like him today. KAN is batting .262 on the road, .269 versus left-handers, and .222 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Now that Jeremy Guthrie is out of COL, he is back to being a consistent 3 or 4 starter. He gives you average numbers in ERA and WHIP. His K/9 is on the low side and I know CLE just got shut down by a long reliever yesterday but I think he spikes on the higher side of things today because CLE has hit him well in the past. CLE is batting .249 at home, .255 versus right-handers, and .230 over the last 7 days RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Michael Brantley has been out of this world hot with 31.75 fp over the last 7 days. Nick Swisher has been producing with 19 fp. Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis both have good batting averages versus right-handers. Jason Giambi (if he starts) is 4-10 with 2 HRs versus Guthrie. Asdrubal Cabrera is 5-18 with 1 HR. Nick Swisher is 13-34 with 2 HRs versus him. RG Stack Rating 6

• Away Given Kazmir struggles with right-handers then Billy Butler and Salvador Perez seem like good options today. Alex Gordon is 5-16versus Kazmir and Miguel Tejada is 13-32 with 4 XBHs versus him as well. Alex Gordon, David Lough, and Eic Hosmer are all batting over .300 versus left-handers. RG Stack Rating 6

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Texas vs. Detroit

7:05 PM	Texas – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.260	0.741	17.50%	0.60		0.281	0.783	17.10%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.264	0.757	17.40%	0.49		0.274	0.776	18.70%	0.53
SP STATS	Holland – LHP					Scherzer – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.28	3.19	8.68	12.12		0.95	3.06	10.67	15.51
LAST 14 DAYS	1.23	2.08	10.19	16.07		1.14	3.10	10.75	15.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TEX vs R		TEX BvP			DET vs L		DET BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – DET -170

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Mr. Upside, Max Scherzer , takes the hill today versus a hot TEX team. He has been only a 4.01 pitcher at home this year but DET offense is a beast at home. He has not had a start all year in which he held the opposing team scoreless. Yes, he will get Ks in bunches but TEX does not K all that much. They rank 28th in Ks on the year and for his price, you need big numbers so I do not think the value is there today. TEX is batting .255 on the road, .265 versus right-handers, and .274 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

• Away Not to beat a dead horse but I know Derek Holland is pitching fantastic but I cannot recommend any road pitcher in DET. They are just too good at home. DET is batting .303 at home, .269 versus left-handers, and .297 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home Miguel Cabrera is super hot with 43.5 fp over the past 7 days. Tori Hunter is super hot as well with 35 fp. Both Victor Martinez and Prince Fielder are also hot producing over 20 fp each in the last 7 days. Miguel Cabrera is batting .418 versus left-handers and .389 at home. He is 3-8 with 2 HRs versus Holland. Tori Hunter is 11-37 with 2 HRs. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away Adrian Beltre is super hot with 31 fp over the past 7 days. A.J. Pierzynski, Ian Kinsler, and Nelson Cruz are hot as well. Leonys Martin, Beltre, Pierzynski and Ian Kinsler all have good batting averages versus right-handers. Pierzynski is 10-31 with 1 HR versus Scherzer. Cruz is 6-18 with 1 HR. Kinsler and Beltre’s numbers are positive as well. RG Stack Rating 2

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NY Mets vs. Pittsburgh

7:15 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.234	0.680	22.20%	0.54		0.243	0.702	22.30%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.235	0.685	22.00%	0.43		0.245	0.707	21.80%	0.42
SP STATS	Torres – RHP					Burnett – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.87	0.51	7.85	3.12		1.13	3.05	9.76	12.01
LAST 14 DAYS	1.08	0.00	7.94	3.84		1.00	1.80	5.40	7.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs R		NYM BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – PIT -180

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home A.J. Burnett there only 66 pitches in his first start back from the DL. I bet he only throws around 80 today. He is a huge favorite but I hate taking players with limited upside no matter how god they may be. NYM is batting .248 at home, .233 versus right-handers, and .262 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Carlos Torres had a fantastic start to the season in Triple A. He has been a close as you can expect a reliever to be to unhittable since joining the rotation. He has been in a reliever’s role so pitch count could be an issue but Terry Collins has stated that he wants the young arm to throw 7 or 8 IP every start so I think there is a chance they cut him loose tonight. I am not sure that his 7.64 K/9 is worth the gamble but he will be cheap and the cheaper the player is the bigger the return on the investment you get when/if they hit. PIT is batting .245 at home, .242 versus right-handers, and .234 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home Pedro Alvarez and Starling Marte have both been hot for PIT. Jose Tabata is batting .338 versus right-handers and Alex Presley is batting .324 versus them as well. The young arm could struggle so consider everyone playable. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away Marlon Byrd and Eric Young Jr. have been hot for NYM. David Wright and Daniel Murphy are batting well against right-handers. John Buck is 6-22 with 3 HRs versus Burnett. RG Stack Rating 3

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St. Louis vs. Chicago Cubs

7:15 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Chicago Cubs – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.274	0.748	17.90%	0.61		0.241	0.704	19.30%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.286	0.763	18.10%	0.49		0.244	0.704	18.10%	0.43
SP STATS	Lynn – RHP					Garza – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.19	3.67	9.06	12.40		1.08	3.22	8.14	11.91
LAST 14 DAYS	1.39	4.85	10.38	12.50		0.96	1.23	8.59	17.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			CHC vs R		CHC BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – STL -120

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home There is a reason why the OU for CHC games does not get released until close to game time because depending on the weather, CHC can either be a pitcher’s dream or his nightmare. For Matt Garza, it has been more of a nightmare than it has been not. The wind is blowing in the right direction today so he is worth a look because he has been spectacular on the road (I know this game is in Wrigley) with a 2.23 ERA where the conditions are less volatile. STL is a tough draw. They are batting .269 on the road, .284 versus right-handers, and .249 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

• Away Lance Lynn misses a ton of bats so I think his numbers will not be effected as much by the conditions. I am not excited about his 5.03 road ERA and the Cubs have been tough at home this year but he offers GPP upside and will be a sneaky play because there are better safer picks tonight. He will benefit just as much from the wind as Garza will and he has much more upside. CHC is batting .251 at home, .244 versus right-handers, and .227 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Alfonso Soriano is out of this world hot with 45 fp over the past 7 days. He is 6-19 with 1 HR versus Lynn. RG Stack Rating 3

• Away Matt Carpenter has been hot for STL with 28.25. Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Shane Robinson, Carlos Beltran, and Matt Adams are all batting over .300 versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 5

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Colorado vs. LA Dodgers

7:15 PM	Colorado – ROAD					LA Dodgers – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.269	0.763	19.40%	0.64		0.261	0.715	18.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.271	0.780	19.80%	0.53		0.262	0.716	18.60%	0.43
SP STATS	Chatwood – RHP					Greinke – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.37	2.74	6.09	9.55		1.37	3.91	6.99	10.00
LAST 14 DAYS	1.51	4.08	3.66	6.73		1.58	4.26	7.58	12.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	COL vs R		COL BvP			LAD vs R		LAD BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7

• Favored Team – LAD -165

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home With Zach Greinke ‘s 2.70 home ERA we are starting to get to the good stuff in the Grind Down. Enough with all these GPP plays, show me some winners! Greinke is off to a stellar July in which he has held opponents to a .195 BAA. His diminished K/9 totals are a little worrisome given his price but he is the heavy favorite in a game with a very low OU. COL is batting .249 on the road, .271 versus right-handers, and .205 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away Tyler Chatwood has pitched okay in COL. He has been ridiculously good away from it with a 1.26 ERA. He should benefit greatly today from this park and is well worth a look given his diminished price on multiple pitcher sites. He has not made it past 6 IP in a start so he is useless in a single pitcher format. LAD is batting .259 at home, .263 versus left-handers, and .281 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home LAD is batting .341 as a team versus Chatwood although much of those numbers have been padded by Coors field. Still, Consider everyone playable. Andre Either ‘s 7-15 BvPs stand out the most. RG Stack Rating 4

• Away Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Gonzalez all bat well against right-handers. CGO has been the only productive Rockie on the road trip with 19.75 fp. He is also 6-14 with 2 HRs versus Greinke. RG Stack Rating 2

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