MLB Daily Grind Down: Sunday, June 30th Part 2

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-01 19:23:17

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Detroit vs. Tampa Bay

1:40 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Tampa Bay – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.283	0.781	16.70%	0.65		0.259	0.750	18.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.282	0.775	16.30%	0.51		0.246	0.727	18.10%	0.49
SP STATS	Porcello – RHP					Hellickson – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.17	4.74	7.46	8.21		1.26	5.50	6.91	8.35
LAST 14 DAYS	0.92	4.15	6.23	10.00		1.52	7.71	6.43	6.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			TBR vs R		TBR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – TAM -105

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jeremy Hellickson is where Rick Porcello was a month ago in which he has strung together a couple of good starts versus some difficult opponents and now everyone is high on him. I will say this, his 1.22 WHIP is much better than his 5.11 ERA and we should see his ERA creep down to the low 4s but not today against this sick DET team. DET is batting .258 on the road, .280 versus right-handers, and .279 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away After those 4 nice starts in a row, Rick Porcello has been hammered in his last 2. Things do not get any easier for him today on the road where he is 5.08 pitcher. He does have the benefit of pitching in front of the league’s best offenses but that will only carry you so far. RG Start-Ability 3

Batter Grind Down

• Home Desmond Jennings has the nicest set of BvPs versus Porcello. James Loney and Will Myers make two interting value plays. I like all of the usual suspect and think there is a good chance that Porcello does not last 5 IP today RG Stack Rating 6

• Away Miguel Cabrera has been crushing the ball again and has .37.75 fp over the last 7 days. Austin Jackson and Prince Fielder have both been hot as well. RG Stack Rating 5

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Cleveland vs. Chicago White Sox

2:10 PM	Cleveland – ROAD					Chicago White Sox – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.255	0.745	22.20%	0.65		0.242	0.670	20.90%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.261	0.759	20.80%	0.51		0.246	0.678	21.00%	0.40
SP STATS	Masterson – RHP					Sale – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.22	3.48	9.15	13.26		0.98	2.69	9.09	13.39
LAST 14 DAYS	1.29	3.10	9.85	13.03		1.31	2.77	13.15	14.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CLE vs L		CLE BvP			CHW vs R		CHW BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – CHW -145

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home It took a while for us to get her but we finally got to some pitchers worth mentioning. This and the TEX/CIN game are the two most important in a single pitcher format. Chris Sale has huge GPP upside and has been pitching well at home with a 2.35 ERA. The only knock on him is that CHW has struggled offensively so you cannot be certain that they score him any runs. CLE is batting .263 on the road, .262 versus left-handers, and .298 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away Justin Masterson has the better of the two matchups since he gets to pitch to this struggling CHW team. Masterson has not been a good road pitcher with a 5.54 road ERA but he has also faced some of the best offensive teams in baseball on the road in BAL, BOS, DET, TAM, TOR and NYY so that number is a little misleading. The last time he pitched in CHW he went 7 IP with 2 ER and 5 Ks. He has a complete game versus CHW also this year but it was at home. CHW is batting .250 at home, .251 versus right-handers, and .279 over the last 7 days RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home A hot Adam Dunn and Alejandro De Aza and the value play of Gordon Beckham who is batting .380 versus righ-handers are the only players I am considering from this CHW team. RG Stack Rating 1

• Away If you are playing the fade then Jason Kipnis has been the hottest player in baseball with 59.75 fp over the last week and he has great numbers versus Sale. RG Stack Rating 2

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Kansas City vs. Minnesota

2:10 PM	Kansas City – ROAD					Minnesota – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.256	0.676	17.40%	0.52		0.247	0.712	20.50%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.248	0.659	17.50%	0.36		0.242	0.709	20.50%	0.45
SP STATS	Santana – RHP					Correia – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.98	2.64	7.00	11.93		1.31	3.87	4.90	8.72
LAST 14 DAYS	0.70	0.61	5.70	13.10		1.25	2.31	9.64	12.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	KCR vs R		KCR BvP			MIN vs R		MIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – Pick’em

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I never thought I would say this but Kevin Correia is one of your better options this morning especially on a multiple pitcher site. There are not many top tier players going today. Correia has a 2.82 home ERA and draws a struggling KAN team. KAN is batting .251 on the road, .252 versus right-handers, and .276 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

• Away Ervin Santana is a better pitcher than Correia and he has been great on the road. He only has a 5-5 record because KAN rarely scores any runs for him. He has nice GPP upside and might be the best player pitching today. MIN is batting .267 at home, .244 versus right-handers, and .275 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham have positive BvPs versus Santana. Clete Thomas is still batting leadoff and offers value. RG Stack Rating

• Away Alex Gordon has been ending up in my LUs a lot lately because he has become ridiculously cheap on some sites. You might trust KAN left-handed bats but I am rolling with Correia at home to get the win. RG Stack Rating 3

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LA Angels vs. Houston

2:10 PM	LA Angels – ROAD					Houston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.265	0.751	18.10%	0.61		0.240	0.682	25.60%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.279	0.785	17.50%	0.52		0.266	0.756	25.50%	0.49
SP STATS	Wilson – LHP					Harrell – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.37	3.61	8.12	11.01		1.54	4.32	5.25	7.39
LAST 14 DAYS	0.86	1.29	4.50	13.50		0.95	1.89	5.21	10.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAA vs R		LAA BvP			HOU vs L		HOU BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – LAA -180

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home You remember when Lucas Harrell was high on everyone’s value play radar. He has been horrible all of June and just got crushed by STL for 7 ER in 3.1 IP. LAA is batting 251 on the road, .277 versus right-handers, and .277 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

• Away C.J. Wilson struck out 12 the last time he faced HOU. He will be played by a lot of people today for good reason but be weary of overlay. HOU is batting .234 at home, .268 versus left-handers, and .215 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

Batter Grind Down

• Home If you are playing the fade then most of HOU hits Left-handers well so they all have value. RG Stack Rating 1

• Away Ladies and Gentlemen start your LAA stacks. Josh Hamilton ‘s 4-7 with 2 HRs is playable either way and Mike Trout is playable everyday no matter who the opponent is. RG Stack Rating 7

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Cincinnati vs. Texas

3:05 PM	Cincinnati – ROAD					Texas – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.249	0.725	19.90%	0.59		0.263	0.750	17.40%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.724	19.90%	0.47		0.266	0.763	17.30%	0.50
SP STATS	Latos – RHP					Darvish – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.20	3.20	8.22	11.48		0.97	2.84	12.20	15.61
LAST 14 DAYS	1.36	5.73	10.64	8.50		1.00	3.46	13.15	13.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CIN vs R		CIN BvP			TEX vs R		TEX BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – TEX -155

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Yu Darvish versus Mat Latos should be a fun matchup. Darvish has been a beast at home with a K/9 over 12. He is on pace to almost record 300 Ks on the year so he has a ridiculous amount of upside. CIN is batting .241 on the road, .248 versus right-handers, and .214 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away Mat Latos has been putting together a nice run of games and he has been much more consistent then Darvish. If I am not taking Darvish then I am taking him because TEX offense has been struggling as of late. TEX is batting .268 at home, .263 versus right-handers, and .225 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home TEX is the heavy favorite so they should score a few runs but there is nothing that suggest to me where those runs will come from.RG Stack Rating 3

• Away Stick to the usual suspects if you are playing the fade in Votto Bruce and Choo but I think that this game ends up on the under side of things.RG Stack Rating 2

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