MLB Daily Grind Down: Tuesday, July 30th Part 3
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Milwaukee vs. Chicago Cubs
| 8:05 PM | Milwaukee – ROAD | Chicago Cubs – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.256 | 0.713 | 19.50% | 0.56 | 0.242 | 0.712 | 19.10% | 0.56 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.715 | 18.70% | 0.43 | 0.248 | 0.717 | 18.20% | 0.45 | |
| SP STATS | Thornburg – RHP | Arrieta – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.22 | 2.95 | 5.47 | 4.52 | 1.81 | 7.23 | 8.92 | 6.24 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.60 | 7.20 | 3.60 | 1.50 | |||||
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
MIL vs R  | MIL BvP | CHC vs R | CHC BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5
- Favored Team – CHI -120
Pitcher Grind Down
CHI – Jake Arrieta has not had a good season, but the Cubs are short handed so they are throwing him out there tonight. Arrieta has a 7.23 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP in his 5 starts this season. Even though the Brewers lineup doesn’t look great, I just don’t see Arrieta pitching that well. Rating = 3
MIL – Tyler Thornburg is a young pitcher making his first start of the season. He has been pretty good out of the bullpen, but it’s a lot different pitching an inning or two out of the bullpen than it is making a start. My philosophy in these situations is to take a wait and see approach. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
CHI – It doesn’t look like the wind is blowing out today, but I still think we could see a lot of runs in this one. Thornburg is a very young and inexperienced pitcher. I think both Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro are in play as they are both much better against righties.
MIL – For the Brewers, you have to at least think about taking Carlos Gomez. He has been on fire over the last week and has been stealing bases too. His game log is just ridiculous. Rickie Weeks is also a good option if you want to go cheap at 2B.
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Kansas City vs. Minnesota
| 8:10 PM | Kansas City – ROAD | Minnesota – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.255 | 0.684 | 17.20% | 0.53 | 0.243 | 0.696 | 21.10% | 0.54 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.686 | 16.90% | 0.40 | 0.239 | 0.692 | 21.60% | 0.43 | |
| SP STATS | Santana – RHP | Pelfrey – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.08 | 3.06 | 6.97 | 11.11 | 1.51 | 5.15 | 5.26 | 6.17 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 0.80 | 0.59 | 5.36 | 13.55 | 1.16 | 2.31 | 8.04 | 9.10 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| KCR vs R | KCR BvP | MIN vs R | MIN BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – KC -121
Pitcher Grind Down
MIN – Mike Pelfrey should not be on your radar unless you are playing a GPP and trying to think way, way far out of the box. When you are an underdog at home against the Royals, you know that you aren’t a very good pitcher. 5.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.51. Rating = 3
KC – Ervin Santana goes through his ups and downs every season. He seems to go on these streaks where he pitches well for 5 games and then struggles for 5 games. Right now he is pitching well, so it could be a good spot for him, especially considering the fact that he is facing a Twins team that has really been struggling to score runs. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
MIN – The Twins bats have been cold and Santana has been pitching well. If those two trends continue, it probably won’t be a great night for the Twins. Unless Mauer is back, I would stay away from the Twins.
KC – The Royals have a great matchup against Pelfrey and the best part is that all of the Royals are dirt cheap. If you are looking for a very cheap stack, consider the Royals. Alex Gordon is my favorite play.
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Toronto vs. Oakland
| 10:07 PM | Toronto – ROAD | Oakland – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.254 | 0.732 | 18.70% | 0.64 | 0.243 | 0.712 | 19.80% | 0.60 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.752 | 18.90% | 0.51 | 0.240 | 0.727 | 20.10% | 0.49 | |
| SP STATS | Buehrle – LHP | Straily – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.33 | 4.50 | 6.20 | 8.62 | 1.18 | 4.43 | 7.41 | 9.07 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.06 | 1.69 | 7.88 | 15.50 | 1.53 | 5.56 | 7.30 | 6.55 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| TOR vs R | TOR BvP | OAK vs L | OAK BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – OAK – 150
Pitcher Grind Down
OAK – Even after giving up 5 earned runs to the Angels in his last start, July has been Straily’s best month by far this season. In his 4 July starts, he has posted a 2.92 ERA. I think his value tonight is similar to Griffin’s last night. I think he will give up a few runs, gets 6-7 K’s, and be in line for the win thanks to his offense. Rating = 6
TOR – Mark Buehrle is coming off of his best start of the season as he threw a complete game shutout against the Astros. But two things that don’t carry over to this game. One, he is not facing the Astros, he is facing a tough A’s team. And two, he is not pitching at home, he is pitching on the road where he has really struggled this season. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
OAK – Coco Crisp has faced Buehrle 49 times in his career and has had pretty good success against him. Crisp is in play as is Jed Lowrie and Yoenis Cespedes.
TOR – I would stay away from Joey Bautista today as he has really struggled away from home. On the road he has a .190 batting average with 45 K’s compared to only 37 hits. I do like Edwin Encarnacion though, he is really seeing the ball well right now.
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NY Yankees vs. LA Dodgers
| 10:10 PM | NY Yankees – ROAD | LA Dodgers – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.243 | 0.683 | 19.50% | 0.53 | 0.265 | 0.715 | 18.30% | 0.56 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.244 | 0.684 | 19.20% | 0.40 | 0.266 | 0.735 | 18.60% | 0.47 | |
| SP STATS | Pettitte – LHP | Greinke – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.37 | 4.39 | 6.29 | 8.96 | 1.27 | 3.49 | 6.89 | 10.44 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.32 | 4.38 | 4.46 | 6.05 | 1.31 | 3.46 | 4.85 | 7.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| NYY vs R | NYY BvP | LAD vs L | LAD BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.0
- Favored Team – LAD -178
Pitcher Grind Down
LAD – The Dodgers have been on fire lately and I think it’s safe to say that the success will continue tonight against the Yankees. Zack Greinke is dominant at home, posting a 2.92 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00 this season. He has a good chance of getting run support as well with Pettitte on the mound for the Yanks. Rating = 9
NYY – Andy Pettitte has gotten progressively worse as the season has progressed. His WHIP and ERA are increasing while his K rate is going down. Now he has to face this tough Dodgers lineup. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
LAD – I wouldn’t put much stock into the Dodgers’ BvP numbers against Pettitte. Most of those at bats were from years ago when Pettitte was a much better pitcher. Instead focus on the fact that Pettitte is struggling and that he is allowing right hand bats to hit for a .303 average. Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez are the plays today.
NYY – Even with the addition of Soriano, the Yankees lineup just isn’t that formidable. I’ll take Greinke over the Yankees bats tonight.
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Cincinnati vs. San Diego
| 10:10 PM | Cincinnati – ROAD | San Diego – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.251 | 0.721 | 20.10% | 0.58 | 0.246 | 0.691 | 20.60% | 0.55 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.730 | 20.20% | 0.48 | 0.243 | 0.678 | 20.60% | 0.39 | |
| SP STATS | Latos – RHP | Volquez – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.29 | 3.39 | 9.26 | 12.30 | 1.60 | 5.70 | 7.50 | 8.00 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.39 | 2.13 | 6.64 | 13.10 | 1.39 | 5.23 | 5.35 | 9.05 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| CIN vs R | CIN BvP | SDP vs R | SDP BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.0
- Favored Team – CIN -160
Pitcher Grind Down
SD – Edison Volquez has struggled all season long, his ERA of 5.70 is a true indication of how well he has pitched. He had a run of a few quality starts, but that didn’t last long. He is a guy that is going to give up 3-4 runs per outing while picking up 4-5 K’s. Rating = 4
CIN – The bullpen ruined Mike Leake good start last night, hopefully the same won’t happen to Mat Latos tonight. Latos has a good matchup and is pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. He is a big favorite for a reason and should be rostered tonight. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
SD – I don’t like the Padres bats at all tonight. Stick with Latos.
CIN – Volquez is giving up an OPS of .849 to left hand bats so once again look for Choo, Votto, and Bruce to all be in play.
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