MLB First Look: Wednesday, July 2
Editor’s Note: Welcome to MLB First Look! In an effort to provide Grinders with more “night-before” MLB Research Content, we’re proud to announce MLB First Look by Top-Ranked Notorious. Unlike season-long where writers have months to prep before writing articles on draft strategy, the quick nature of Daily Fantasy’s player draft-pool turn-around makes completing entire research routines and writing high quality articles the night before challenging, and at times impossible. This column should help you glean insight and strategies to exploit as Notorious begins his research routine with you. Since it’s a new column, let us know your feedback in the comments!
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more. Additionally, Derek will give you a quick recap of how his night in DFS transpired.
What I Learned Tonight
It was a high scoring night in the industry with plenty of HR’s to go around. I had a shot at the DSBC $109 qualifier heading into the late games, but Mike Leake put up a dud and I ended up with a 12th place finish. While it was another close call that fell short, I’m going to keep at it and hopefully I’ll nab a seat into one of these championship events here soon. Other than that, it was a pretty routine night in the industry, so rather than blabbering on, why don’t we jump into the preview of Wednesday’s games which include both a morning and evening slate.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:37 PM | Milwaukee | Toronto | Peralta (9-5) – 3.20 ERA | Happ (7-4) – 4.29 ERA |
| 1:05 PM | Tampa Bay | N.Y. Yankees | Odorizzi (3-7) – 4.14 ERA | Nuno (2-4) – 5.42 ERA |
| 1:08 PM | Oakland | Detroit | Chavez (6-4) – 2.94 ERA | Verlander (6-7) – 4.80 ERA |
| 1:10 PM | Kansas City | Minnesota | Vargas (7-3) – 3.53 ERA | Correia (4-9) – 5.08 ERA |
| 2:10 PM | Seattle | Houston | Young (7-4) – 3.15 ERA | Peacock (2-4) – 4.21 ERA |
| 3:10 PM | Cleveland | L.A. Dodgers | Bauer (2-4) – 4.39 ERA | Ryu (9-4) – 3.12 ERA |
| 3:40 PM | Cincinnati | San Diego | Cueto (8-5) – 1.88 ERA | Ross (6-8) – 3.18 ERA |
| 6:05 PM | Colorado | Washington | Matzek (1-2) – 4.24 ERA | Fister (6-2) – 2.83 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Texas | Baltimore | Mikolas (0-0) – 0.00 ERA | Tillman (7-4) – 4.18 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Pittsburgh | Anderson (5-3) – 3.63 ERA | Morton (4-9) – 3.41 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Philadelphia | Miami | Hamels (2-4) – 2.84 ERA | Koehler (5-6) – 3.70 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | N.Y. Mets | Atlanta | deGrom (1-4) – 3.62 ERA | Teheran (7-5) – 2.34 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | Boston | Wood (7-6) – 4.52 ERA | Workman (1-1) – 3.27 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | L.A. Angels | Chi. White Sox | Shoemaker (5-2) – 4.50 ERA | Danks (7-6) – 4.26 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | St. Louis | San Francisco | Wainwright (10-4) – 2.01 ERA | Vogelsong (5-4) – 3.96 ERA |
Today’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Scanning through tonight’s games, here are the Pitchers that caught my eye:
- Johnny Cueto – There are quite a few aces on the mound Wednesday, but Cueto pitching in Petco against the hapless Padres is going to be hard to pass on. Sure, you will have to pay up for Cueto, but he is sporting an ERA under 2.00 this season and will be facing the worst offense in baseball in the best pitcher’s park in baseball.
- Julio Teheran – With Cueto on the mound in the early slate of games, Teheran may be the #1 pitcher to target in the evening slate. He has been close to unhittable at home with a 1.22 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP this season and is facing a weak Mets’ offense that will likely be without David Wright.
- Doug Fister – Fister should get plenty of run support tonight as the Rockies will throw out yet another rookie LH pitcher to face the Nationals. This game will likely have a similar result to the first two in this series. Fister is the biggest favorite on the board and is an extremely safe cash game play.
- Cole Hamels – Hamels is a nice upside play against the Marlins. They knocked him around a bit in their last meeting, but this time he will have the huge Marlins Park at his back. Hamels is coming off of a terrific month of June where he posted a 1.23 ERA over 6 starts.
2) Two Easy Teams to Target
- Washington Nationals – Once again, the Nationals are atop my list of teams to target offensively. Once again they are facing rookie LHP of the Rockies. Tonight Tyler Matzek will take the mound and will try to have better success than his teammates. The Nationals’ lineup is locked in right now and should be in for another big night.
- Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles’ offense has been on fire in this series against the Rangers and I don’t expect rookie Miles Mikolas to cool them off. Mikolas has put up pretty good numbers in the minor leagues this season, but should struggle against a very powerful Orioles’ offense.
3) Longest Active Hitting Streaks
It’s never a bad idea to target the hot batters in DFS. The two longest current hitting streaks belong to Jose Abreu (15) and Yoenis Cespedes (14). Abreu draws a terrific matchup against Tyler Skaggs at home. He is locked in right now and should be targeted in all leagues if you are looking to spend up at 1B. Yoenis Cespedes has a tougher matchup than Abreu as he is facing Justin Verlander in Detroit. That said, I think Cespedes is in play as we have really seen Verlander struggle over the last two months.
4) wOBA Play of the Day: Mike Trout
Mike Trout earns the honors as the top wOBA play for Wednesday. Trout crushes both LH and RH pitching, but has been extremely good against southpaws this season. He owns a .463 wOBA against LH pitching. Trout hits a HR in 8% of his at-bats against lefties while only hitting a HR in 5% of his at-bats against righties. Tonight he is facing John Danks who is giving up a .344 wOBA to RHB’s this season. Trout may be expensive, but he may pay off that salary with one swing of his bat.
5) Ballpark Factors
Today’s strategy tip has to do with ballpark factors. Most DFS players know which ballparks are pitcher friendly and which ballparks are hitter friendly, but you can dive much deeper into ballpark factors to take your daily analysis to the next level. In addition to looking at which ballparks yield the most runs, take a look at which ballparks give up the most HR’s, which ballparks have the biggest gaps in the outfield, and which ballparks are favorable to either LHB or RHB batters. Doing so will allow you to adjust your expected fantasy value of players each night depending on which ballpark they are playing in.
We had a lot of great feedback yesterday on the new column. As always, we aim to please so if there is anything you’d like to see moving forward, let us know by leaving a comment!