MLB Grind Down 4/5 - NIGHT GAMES

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-05 15:49:22

Boston at Toronto

• Both of these two starters are GPP upside guys because both can get you GPP winning numbers at a discount price. The discount comes from the fact that both can get you GPP losing numbers also. Johnson has the better track record out of the two and seems to be the safer bet but you have to love Doubront’s upside and K/9 ratio.

• Toronto has hit Doubront well in the past to the tune of a .293 BAA and a 1.008 OPS as a team. Encarnacion has the best numbers vs. him with a BAA at .556. Bautista has not him well. Might be best to avoid today since he carries such a high price.

• This will be only the second time that Josh Johnson has faced the Red Soxs. The Soxs have been hitting the ball with a .315 team average. I might take a flyer on some of the lefties here. Also, Jerrod Saltalamacchia has been hot

Cleveland at Tampa Bay

• Vegas has the OU of this game at 8 with TB favored at -170 so you have to like Matt Moore in this one. He has pitched well coming out of the spring and the lefty faces a Cleveland team that is loaded with lefties.

• Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana are Cleveland’s two hottest hitters. Santana is a righty and he has had some success against Moore in the past. Could make a sneaky play if you choose to fade Moore.

• McAllister is a good pitcher himself so do not expect the Rays to roll him over. Zobrist, Jennings and Longoria are all off to hot starts so they are of course in play.

Washington at Cincinnati

• How about that rotation in WAS. When you can roll out Dan Haren vs. a teams fourth starter then you are well ahead of the game. Haren did not pitch all that well this spring but draws a decent matchup on the mound.

• The Reds are batting just .155 as a team. Frazier and Choo have been solid and both are reasonably priced. I stay away from Votto or Bruce today despite the righty/lefty splits.

• Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman have been on fire both batting .500 to start the season. The guy to avoid is Adam Laroach who has yet to record a hit in this young season

Miami at NY Mets

• Vegas has OU of this game at 8 with NYM favorite at -170 so Hefner might be a sneaky play. He had elbow stiffness in the spring which makes me think otherwise. Niether pitcher K/9 ratio makes them worth any more than a 2nd pitcher in a multiple pitcher format though.

• The BvP vs. Hefner are pretty good for MIA with Polanco having the best numbers. Might be a good day to look for value you here since they are going to score some runs at some point. Stanton has just 1 hit in 9 at bats with 4 Ks to start the season.

• The plays to remember on the Mets are Marlon Byrd who is still pretty cheap most places. Ruben Tejada who hits righties for .320 clip, and Lucas Duda. Also, John buck is batting .500.

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta

• Anytime a pitcher faces the Cubs then you have to like him because they are batting just .121 to start the season. If only Minor got a few more Ks. Still, his a great 2nd option today on multiple pitcher site. I just do not think he will be winning you the DFBC unless a few other key guys go bust. He seems a lock for the win though.

• The cubs are dismal on offence right now. Just stay away

• With the way Atl has been playing you have to like all of there bats today. Freeman is batting .500 to start the season and Justin Upton sports .333 BAA vs. the man on the hill. The guy. I would avoid are B.J Upton who is only 1-11 vs. Fieldman.

Seattle at Chicago White Sox

• This is one of those games were the pitchers are just good enough that it limits the effectiveness of the hitters but are not good enough to matter for GPP purposes. One of these guys is probably going to pitch a decent game but it is far too much of gamble for me to recommend either of them.

• Paul Konerko has destroy Beaven in the past. He is batting .800 vs. him. Alex Rios also sports a .400 BAA and the team has a collective .333 BAA. Tyler Flowers is batting .571 with 2HRs to start the season and seems to blossoming now that A.J. is gone. Adam Dunn is always a threat to go yard when he faces a righty.

• Seattle has the most lackluster LU in baseball but it is home to the leagues hottest hitter Mike Morse. He has 4 HR to start the season and is still cheap on most sites. Jesus Montero typically hits well vs. lefties so might be good spot to start him also.

Arizona at Milwaukee

• These two guys have K/9 numbers just high enough to give them relevance as an outside shot at taking down a single pitcher format GPP. Both are great number two options today. Lohse home ERA of 2.33 tends to lean me to favor him out of the two but the Diamondbacks are batting .343 vs. him and this is not the park he used to call home. Wade Miley has the same problem with the Brewers. The are batting .361 vs. him. Both pitchers had solid springs.

• It is no secret that the Brewers have been hot. Look to Ryan Braun to continue their hot streak as he sports a .440 average against the man on the hill. I would not stack the brewers but all of them look like they could be solid plays vs. Miley.

• Likewise Arizona has hit Lohse well so they could all make great plays also but I would not stack here either. Prado and Prada has the best numbers. Goldy could be a sneaky play since Lohse is a righty. He has .667 OBP vs Lohse on 3 at bats.

Oakland at Houston

* Next up in line to receive a major boost because he is playing the Astros is Dan Straily. This guy hit the major last year without much hype. He posted a really solid minor league campaigne and faired well in his seven starts in the majors. Though, how much of those numbers were aided by his home park? His k/9 ratio 7.3 will most likely receive a bump from an Astro’s team leading the league in strikeouts. The only knock I have on him as that he will most likely be on a large percent of daily rosters.

• Fresh off a great series with Seattle, OAK now get to strut there stuff in a very hitter friendly park. Cespedes is off to a hot start batting w HR and he now get to set his sight on the cozy Crawford boxes.

• When thinking about the Astros I am reminded of the line from one of my favorite movies as a kid, Roadhouse. “Things will get worse before they get better

Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers

• When you can roll out a Cy-Young award winner in your fourth game of the season then it is safe to say you have a pretty good rotation. Zack Grienke’s home 2.98 ERA, .222 BAA and 10.7 K/9 ratio make him one of the few viable options for the day on a single pitcher site. He has pitched well against the Pirates in the past and had a decent spring.

• Jonathan Sanchez has upside. All of his numbers diminished last year but the guy was one heck of a prospect. Some of his best games on the road were in this park with the Giants. If you are a gambling man then he is a guy who could get you 10 Ks. No one loves a long shot more than a gambler. He had an okay spring showing much better control and has held the current Dodgers to a mere .220 BAA.

• No one has had much success vs Grienke. It is worth noting that Andrew McCuthcen is off to a hot start though.