NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 16 - Page 4
New England at Baltimore
| New England Patriots | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05 PM ET | M&T Bank Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | -2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.4 | 6 | 6 | 12 | Offense | 21.1 | 25 | 20 | 29 | |
| Defense | 22.2 | 10 | 18 | 31 | Defense | 19.8 | 7 | 13 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore | 10 | 2 | 16 | 8 | New England | 20 | 20 | 14 | 20 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Edelman | 129 | 9.2 | 13.3 | 19.0 | Smith | 123 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 12.0 | |
| Amendola | 77 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 14.0 | Jones | 54 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 9.0 | |
| Dobson | 67 | 6.5 | Brown | 66 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | |||
| Hoomanawanui | 17 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Clark | 52 | 4.3 | 2.0 | ||
New England Patriots
The struggles without Rob Gronkowski returned to the Patriots in Week 15 as New England was unable to muster consistent offense without their star tight end. The final stats look good, with Brady throwing for 364 and 2 scores and 2 receivers having over 100 yards, but the tempo and flow of the Patriots offense was clearly different. The best news to come out of that injury for fantasy value though was that Julian Edelman saw 19 targets and Danny Amendola was thrown at 14 times. Fantasy stud Shane Vereen saw just 7 targets in that game, but we’ll get to him more shortly. Last week, I broke down the difference in offensive stats, specifically in the red zone, for New England with and without Gronkowski. On Sunday, their grit will be tested against a Ravens defense that has been good, not great, in recent weeks. They’ve allowed around 250 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns over their last 5 games, but have shown some vulnerability in the secondary. Calvin Johnson was 2 yards shy of becoming the 4th receiver in the last 7 games vs. BAL to have 100+ yards receiving, but BAL remains a top-10 defense vs. QBs over their last three weeks despite ranking 23rd vs. WRs in that span. The Ravens defense and Tom Brady know each other well, so there is some truth to looking at how Brady fared against them in 2 2012 matchups:
- 2012 – Week 3 vs. BAL: – (28-41) 335 PaYd, 1 PaTD, 0 INT
- 2012 – AFC Championship vs. BAL – (29-54), 320 PaYd, 1 PaTD, 2 INT
Those splits aren’t great, but it is worth considering that Brady is pushing for the Patriots to return to their high tempo offense despite not having Gronkowski on the field. Given Baltimore’s stout rush defense, Brady and company could be throwing the ball early and often in this one and opportunity equals output in daily fantasy football.
On the ground, the Patriots have a muddled rushing attack that is as convoluted as they come. Stevan Ridley still hasn’t seen the workload that many have expected to return to him, and LeGarrette Blount had 11 carries to Ridley’s 8 in Week 15. Those 8 carries may be optimistic considering his fumble issues and facing a hard-hitting Baltimore defense. What is worth considering is Shane Vereen bouncing back from a game where Miami made it their sole effort to neutralize him. They were successful, but Baltimore’s defense has struggled in recent weeks in defending the screen game. LeVeon Bell was able to break free for 7 receptions and 63 yards and overall 5 of the last 6 teams to face Baltimore have over 40 receiving yards contributed by the running back position. They’ve also allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last three games and rank 16th in FPPG-allowed to RBs in that span.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are again catching fire at the right time and won in Detroit last week despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. Justin Tucker drilled home 6 field goals which paved the way to an 18-16 victory. They’ll head home with an incredibly enticing matchup against the Patriots defense which is riddled with injuries and general holes. Ryan Tannehill was the 2nd consecutive QB to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Patriots, and the once shut-down corner Aqib Talib has fallen from his throne as a lockdown corner. He continues to be hampered by injuries and has a negative pass coverage rating on PFF in each of his last 5 games. Each of the last 3 WR1’s he’s faced have gone for over 100 yards and although the issues in Week 15 weren’t primarily on Talib, he has still looked a step slower than he was earlier in the season. He’s really struggled against burners, and Flacco should be able to take advantage of that over the top to Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. Smith might be the favored target here, seeing as these are the stat lines for the last 3 WR1’s to face NE:
- Andre Johnson – 8 Rec, 121 RecYd, 0 TD
- Josh Gordon – 7 Rec, 151 RecYd, 1 TD
- Mike Wallace – 6 Rec, 105 RecYd, 1 TD
The rushing attack could also fare well against the Patriots who seem to be signing bodies off the practice squad each week to fill in at defensive tackle. They’ve looked a little better in the past couple of games, but Lamar Miller still averaged over 4 YPC on 15 touches in Week 15 and they allowed 2 receiving TDs to Marcus Thigpen and Daniel Thomas. That struggling front seven will meet up with a struggling running back in Ray Rice. Rice has been a real disappointment this season although he’s shown signs of life with 65 and 57 rushing yards in his last two games, he just hasn’t had the same upside that was there in previous years.
NE @ BAL – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Tom Brady – This game will go one of two ways. The Ravens will either frustrate Brady by creating a pass rush without blitzing, or Brady is going to carve them apart with quick passes to Edelman, Vereen and Amendola. He doesn’t have cash game appeal this weekend but for $7.8K on DK he certainly has a good price point.
- Shane Vereen – Vereen’s price plummeted on every site except Feud this week, and that could mean it’s the perfect time to target him. For $6200 on DK, he has terrific full-point PPR value and he also stands out on FD at $6700. $108.7K on Feud is a good price as well for their main event this weekend.
- Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola – Edelman is priced higher than Amendola across the board, but Amendola may have more appeal on the .5 point PPR sites. Edelman is a PPR machine, but Amendola has more big play ability, especially without Gronkowski. Also, Edelman is the safer cash game play whereas Amendola should be used mostly in tournaments.
- Joe Flacco – The Baltimore QB has not been what was expected this season, but given NE’s recent struggles he has to be in play. For $11.5K on DS and $11K on FTD, he should have no problem hitting value.
- Torrey Smith – His price is all over the board, but has really dropped off in recent weeks on the majority of sites. He’s under $10K on DD and under $6K on DK, but his best value may be at just $86.4K on Feud.
- Dennis Pitta – I didn’t mention Pitta much but the Patriots have struggled mightily against Tight Ends. Clay was made the focal point of Belichick’s defense in Week 15, but I doubt Pitta finds himself under the gun on Sunday and he could be a terrific option for Flacco and makes a strong GPP play.
NY Giants at Detroit
| New York Giants | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 9.5 | 49 | 19.75 | -9.5 | 49 | 29.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.9 | 30 | 18 | 28 | Offense | 25.9 | 8 | 3 | 18 | |
| Defense | 25.5 | 20 | 12 | 13 | Defense | 24.2 | 16 | 22 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit | 15 | 9 | 28 | 5 | NY Giants | 18 | 16 | 9 | 19 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Cruz | 123 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 7.0 | Johnson | 152 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 14.0 | |
| Nicks | 91 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 5.0 | Burleson | 44 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 6.0 | |
| Randle | 70 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 2.0 | Durham | 77 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | |
| Myers | 61 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | Pettigrew | 64 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | |
New York Giants
This is one of those teams that you’ll want to proceed with extreme caution towards. Victor Cruz has already been ruled out and with absolutely nothing to play for, don’t be shocked if the Giants roll over and die in Detroit. Eli will still handle the offense but again, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if Coughlin decides to switch him out if this gets at all ugly. The Giants are nearly 10 point road underdogs, and for fantasy value there’s very little to be excited about. The one positive is that Rueben Randle will start for Cruz and makes for a very interesting tournament play this weekend. Randle has shown he has upside, with a 5 reception, 101 yard game earlier in the year as well as a 6 catch, 92 yards and 2 TD game. The matchup is tough though, and while the Lions look like a soft opponent on paper they actually rank 3rd over the last 3 weeks in terms of FP-allowed to opposing receivers and 2nd vs. quarterbacks in that span.
The rushing game could struggle as well for NY as the Lions have had one of the strongest rush stopping units in all of football this season. Dating back to Week 5, only 1 running back has managed more than 60 yards against them and that was LeSean McCoy in the crazy snow game a couple weeks ago. Throwing that game out, 8 running backs have posted dud fantasy outputs against them and Brown was one of Week 15’s biggest busts with just 17 rush yards on 11 carries.
Detroit Lions
It’s as big of a must-win game for Detroit as they come, and the Lions actually no longer control their own destiny in the NFC playoff hunt. After their 2nd consecutive loss, Detroit will now need to regroup and win out to give themselves a chance at playing in the postseason. That’s tough news for heartbroken Detroit fans but music to the ears of DFS players because we get to see a locked in Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The Giants rank 23rd against opposing QBs in fantasy points allowed over the last 3 weeks and that has come with no opposing QB attempting more than 24 passes against them. Stafford has thrown more than 24 passes in every game this season, but his turnover numbers are creeping up in recent weeks. He now has 9 interceptions over his last 4 games and will need to find a way to take better care of the ball (much like counterpart Eli.) Still, Vegas has the Lions as one of the highest projected scoring teams and the Giants, who hadn’t allowed a receiving touchdown between Weeks 6 and 13, have suddenly allowed three to WRs over the last 2 weeks. Megatron on the outside is matchup proof, but he’s going to see a heavy dose of Prince Amukamura in coverage with Corey Webster out for the year. Amukamara did admit in an interview this week that he’s unlikely to fully shadow Johnson, so also expect Trumaine McBride to pick up some reps against him in Week 16. Neither are shut down corners, although Amukamara is the more talented of the two. The last note in the DET passing game is that Brandon Pettigrew is very questionable for this game. He hasn’t practiced yet this week and if he can’t lace em up then look for Joseph Fauria to play the majority of snaps and makes an excellent red zone target for Stafford.
On the ground, the Lions should be able to find room against a Giants front seven that has struggled over the last couple of weeks without Jason Pierre-Paul. Marshawn Lynch had just 47 yards and a TD against them in Week 15, but he also added on 73 receiving yards and Robert Turbin tacked on 34 more rush yards on 9 attempts in the blowout win. Before that, Ryan Mathews tallied 103 yards with a score and he + Danny Woodhead combined for 7 receptions, 84 yards and a receiving TD. The receiving yards to opposing running backs is the biggest concern for the Giants, as they’ve now allowed an average of 6.75 receptions and 74 receiving yards to opposing RBs over their last four games. Reggie Bush can have a massive impact in the passing game, as can backup RB Joique Bell, and both should have space to exploit against the G-men come Sunday.
NYG @ DET – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Rueben Randle – He has decent upside for GPPs and could see a ton of targets if the Giants fall behind early. At min price on FD, $3.8K on DK, $68K on FF and $5.4K on DS he’s a bargain bin option.
- Matthew Stafford – A couple of bad weeks have him under the microscope and with a deflated price tag for daily fantasy. I wouldn’t chase him at $14K on DS, but he’s a good value at $8K on DK and $17K on DraftDay this weekend.
- Reggie Bush – Bush is one of the premiere GPP plays for the large tournaments taking place this weekend. The Lions can incorporate him in the passing game and his ceiling is as high as any RB available. His value is better on a couple of sites, especially DraftStreet where he’s $11.2K and he’s reasonable at $12.8K on SS, $11.9K and $7.6K on DK.
- Calvin Johnson – He’s gonna be a top 1 or 2 priced WR on every site but there is no one on NYG that can cover him. If you can find enough value at other positions, he is always in play in all formats.
- Joseph Fauria – He’s minimum priced on nearly every site so if Brandon Pettigrew sits, this touchdown machine could be one of the best value TE options of the weekend. With that said, he should only be trusted in tournaments.
Arizona at Seattle
| Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 10 | 44 | 17 | -10 | 44 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.4 | 15 | 14 | 25 | Offense | 27.1 | 5 | 24 | 2 | |
| Defense | 20.8 | 8 | 17 | 1 | Defense | 14.6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle | 1 | 6 | 1 | 10 | Arizona | 19 | 1 | 8 | 32 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Fitzgerald | 120 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 9.0 | Tate | 86 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | |
| Floyd | 95 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 5.0 | Baldwin | 66 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 7.0 | |
| Roberts | 68 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.0 | Harvin | 1 | 1.0 | |||
| Housler | 49 | 4.5 | 5.0 | Miller | 48 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.0 | ||
Arizona Cardinals
This is one of those games that I look at and think ‘I really am not looking forward to breaking that game down.’ For fantasy purposes, you have a divisional game with marginal importance to these two teams in what should be a defensive battle. Nonetheless, the Cardinals will head to Seattle where the Seahawks defense is coming off a game where they picked the younger Manning brother 5 times. They haven’t allowed an opposing QB to throw for over 200 yards since Week 7, when the Cardinals Carson Palmer was able to accomplish that feat. Palmer relied heavily on TE Rob Housler, who hauled in 7 balls for 53 yards in that game. Stud WR Larry Fitzgerald also had success in that game, bringing in 6 catches for 71 yards. Both Housler and Fitz are questionable for this one but both are expected to play come Sunday. While they had reasonable success against the Seahawks, it’s unlikely they can repeat that performance in Seattle against a defense that ranks 4th in FP-allowed to TE’s over the last 5 weeks, 1st against WRs and 1st against QBs.
The rushing attack for Arizona might be able to have some success, as the Seahawks have at times been vulnerable on the ground. 4 of the last 7 teams to face Seattle have been able to muster over 100 combined rushing yards but given the 10 point spread going against Arizona, it’s doubtful that they’ll be able to consistently run the ball from behind. Rashard Mendenhall continues to baffle all reason and get the majority of carries, seeing 21 touches for just 69 yards in Week 15 while Andre Ellington dominates when on the field but only got 10 carries for 71 yards in that game. Ellington could have reasonable value in this one if ARI was willing to commit more to him in their backfield, but it seems like Bruce Arians is hell-bent on watching Mendenhall grind out 3 yards at a time.
Seattle Seahawks
For the Seahawks, a major storyline has been the emergence of Doug Baldwin in recent weeks. He has over 60 yards receiving and a TD in 3 of his last four games and with Harvin unlikely to come back anytime soon he will continue to take a heavy dose of stats. That storyline could become even more prevalent come Sunday, when the Seahawks face a secondary that has lost their CB2 in Tyrann Mathieu. Last week, the Titans were able to connect with deep threat Nate Washington 7 times for 92 yards. Patrick Peterson also struggled, and Kendall Wright managed 12 catches for 150 yards of his own. In the earlier matchup between these teams, Russell Wilson had an impressive 3 passing touchdowns and 235 passing yards. Golden Tate had a solid 4 catches for 77 yards but Sidney Rice was able to get over the top of this secondary for 3 catches and 50 yards with a score. And you can’t talk Cardinals without discussing their struggles against tight ends. It’s uncanny how bad they are vs. the TE position, and Delanie Walker again crushed them for 8 receptions, 53 yards and a score. Zach Miller is probable to play in this one and had a strong game against the Cards earlier, going for 5 catches, 40 yards and a touchdown. Overall, the Cards have allowed at least one receiving touchdown to a tight end in 11 of their 15 games this season and rank dead last in the NFL vs. TE’s on the season and over their last 3 and 5 week splits.
The rushing game could struggle for Seattle, although if this gets out of hand Robert Turbin may see an increased workload as they try and rest Lynch for the playoffs. Arizona hasn’t allowed a 100+ yard back since Week 6 and have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to under 50 yards rushing. Lynch did have 91 yards and a TD against them in the previous matchup, but since then the Cardinals defense has allowed only 1 rushing touchdown to an opposing RB.
ARI @ SEA – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Andre Ellington – He has so much upside and talent and the Seahawks have struggled at times vs. RBs. If the Cardinals are to stay in this game, Ellington will need to have some explosive plays. He’s an extremely risky tournament play but has a good price tag with full-point PPR on DK at $3800
- Doug Baldwin – Love the upside on Baldwin against this defense. He could get over the top for one big play and hit value on a number of sites. At just $7K on DD and $7.5K on FTD, he’s dirt cheap this weekend.
- Zach Miller – The Cardinals are awful against Tight Ends and Miller had one of his best games of the year against them already. He’s min priced on FanDuel at $4.5K and is a touch above $5K on DS, both of which are solid values.