NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Two - Page 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-13 17:22:48

Washington at Green Bay

Washington Redskins						Green Bay Packers
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	49.5	21				-7.5	49.5	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	27.0	11	9	20		Off.	28.0	8	8	26
Def.	33.0	28	8	32		Def.	34.0	29	30	20
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Griffin III	21.56	21.56	30	30.68		Rodgers	25.62	25.62	28	25.52
Morris	9.90	9.90	23	19.30		Lacy	11.70	11.70	28	27.90
Garcon	9.90	9.90	26	38.40		Cobb	20.90	20.90	8	22.60
Davis	3.20	3.20	30	27.80		Finley	14.10	14.10	23	14.20

Green Bay

• Aaron Rodgers had a very good game against that tough 49ers defense but ended up falling short of getting the win. He faces the Redskins this week who gave up a huge fantasy game to the Eagles offense. The Redskins have another tough game ahead of them. Rodgers has healthy weapons and finally has a semblance of a running game. Rating = 9
• Eddie Lacy is going to be in for a monster year. He had over 70 yards from scrimmage and a TD against the tough Niners defense last week. He gets a much more favorable matchup this week against the Redskins who gave up 184 rushing yards to Lesean McCoy last week. This is probably the last time you will be able to take Lacy for cheap. Rating = 8
• Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones are some great targets to have if you are Aaron Rodgers. Cobb is obviously the favorite of the three and they use him in more ways than just running routes. I think Cobb is a top 10 WR play this week.
• Last week, Jermichael Finley looked better than he had the past few seasons. He grabbed 5 balls for 56 yards and a TD. If he can stay healthy, he’s just another weapon on an already great offense. Rating = 6

Washington

• Robert Griffin III looked a bit timid in the first half of the Eagles game, but got much better as the game went on. He is going to have to have a big game this week if they are going to have a shot at beating the Packers. I think RGIII will get pressured a lot and I’m just not quite sure he is comfortable yet so I’m going to wait another week on him. Rating = 5
• Alfred Morris was a bit of a disappointment last week. Luckily he found the endzone, but once the Redskins got down big, they were forced to throw the ball so the passing back Roy Helu got most of the snaps in the second half. I expect the Redskins to try and get him more involved early, but they could find themselves down big once again. Rating = 5
• RGIII really spread the ball around last week with 8 different players recording a catch. Leonard Hankerson could make a good value play this week, but most of his production came when they were in catch up mode. Pierre Garcon is the much better option ignoring salaries.
• Fred Davis and Jordan Reed combined for 7 catches. I think they both hurt each other’s value until we see who ends up being the go to TE. Rating = 3

Minnesota at Chicago

Minnesota Vikings						Chicago Bears
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	42	17.75				-6.5	42	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	24.0	14	20	11		Off.	24.0	14	19	17
Def.	34.0	29	29	24		Def.	21.0	11	19	6
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Ponder	9.64	9.64	15	17.48		Cutler	18.28	18.28	21	21.48
Peterson	31.10	31.10	12	12.90		Forte	17.10	17.10	32	50.80
Jennings	4.80	4.80	25	37.20		Marshall	20.40	20.40	8	22.60
Rudolph	3.70	3.70	20	13.20		Bennett	12.40	12.40	17	9.80

Chicago

• The Vikings defense really held Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson in place, but got beat by Reggie Bush on a few occasions. It’s still too early to tell how defenses are going to be against certain positions, but last year the Vikings struggled against the pass. Jay Cutler looks like a decent mid-range option this week and I think he will have a similar output to his 18 fantasy points last week.
• Matt Forte has looked good in the preseason and looked good in Week 1 with 17 fantasy points. I love those screen passes that they throw to Forte. The Vikings got gashed by Reggie Bush last week so bump up Forte’s value. Rating = 8
• Brandon Marshall still got the majority of targets Week 1, but Cutler spread it around a little bit to Forte, Bennett, and Jeffery. Marshall is the obvious play here, but the Vikings shut down Calvin Johnson last week so you may want to take a shot on Alshon Jeffery instead.
• Martellus Bennett caught a TD last week and is the best TE Cutler has had in a while. If he can get the targets, he will produce. Rating = 5

Minnesota

• Christian Ponder isn’t a great fantasy option. I could break down the numbers, but he just doesn’t have that upside that you are looking for and this is a tough defense he is facing. Rating = 2
• Adrian Peterson started the season off with a 78-yard TD. The Lions bottled him up after that, but AP is always a threat to break those long runs. The Bears defense is solid so I don’t know if I would pay his price in H2H’s and 50/50’s, but he’s always a good GPP play. Rating = 7
• Jerome Simpson got the majority of the targets last week and had himself a nice game. I think Greg Jennings will quickly establish himself as the number 1 WR, but they both have Ponder throwing them the ball so neither is a great option.
• Kyle Rudolph has some talent and of all the receiving options of the Vikings, he’s the only one I would take against this Bears defense. Rating = 4

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

New Orleans Saints						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun – 4:05PM ET						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	47	25				3	47	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	23.0	17	5	19		Off.	17.0	24	23	24
Def.	17.0	7	20	19		Def.	18.0	10	12	20
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Brees	21.48	21.48	10	15.94		Freeman	11.40	11.40	18	20.36
Sproles	14.00	14.00	10	12.50		Martin	11.40	11.40	24	20.10
Colston	15.30	15.30	5	16.80		Jackson	18.90	18.90	17	29.30
Graham	12.50	12.50	26	18.60		Stocker	0.00	0.00	18	11.10

Tampa Bay

• With the exception of Vincent Jackson, the whole Buccs team was a bit of a letdown. They have another good matchup this week on paper, but the Saints actually played some pretty good defense against the Falcons. Josh Freeman looks to be in a good spot whether this game is close or whether the Saints get a big lead early. If it’s close, it’s likely because Freeman is playing well, and if they are down big, they will have to throw the ball to catch-up. Rating = 7
• Doug Martin had a pretty quiet week with only 65 yards and a TD last week, but I think the sky is the limit for his upside this week. I think they will get him more involved in the passing game as well. Rating = 8
• Vincent Jackson loves to go deep and the Saints defense gave up more deep plays than anyone last season. The Saints D looked better in Week 1, but that’s still only one week. Mike Williams could be a nice under the radar play too as the Buccs will likely be throwing the ball a lot this week.
• Luke Stocker didn’t record any catches last week and can be ignored for fantasy purposes right now. Rating = 1

New Orleans

• Drew Brees threw for 350 yards and 2 TD’s last week. For most QB’s, that’s a great game, but for Brees it’s just another day at the office. Brees averaged 340 yards and 4 TD’s in his two games against the Buccs last year. He remains a top play. Rating = 10
• Everyone knows that the Saints backfield is a mess. The only player worth a look is Darren Sproles and he is more of a receiver anyway. Rating = 6
• Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Kenny Stills offer Brees a multiple of options every time he steps back to throw the ball. Last year it was always a different receiver showing up with a big game. I’ve got a sneaky feeling that Lance Moore will be that guy this week.
• Jimmy Graham is the best TE in the game, at least as long as Gronkowski it out. He has the potential to go over 100 yards with a score each week. Rating = 9

Detroit at Arizona

Detroit Lions						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 4:05PM ET						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	47.5	23.75				0	47.5	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	34.0	3	4	9		Off.	24.0	14	10	16
Def.	24.0	17	13	22		Def.	27.0	20	21	10
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Stafford	21.48	21.48	20	21.06		Palmer	18.08	18.08	3	9.64
Bush	27.10	27.10	10	12.50		Mendenhall	6.90	6.90	31	32.40
Johnson	5.70	5.70	4	15.90		Fitzgerald	24.00	24.00	11	23.80
Pettigrew	-0.40	-0.40	31	31.60		Housler			5	3.70

Arizona

• Carson Palmer looked good in his Cardinals debut with 18 fantasy points. Larry Fitzgerald looks as happy as I’ve seen him in a while. I think Palmer has limited upside against the Lions, but he’s cheap enough that he is a safe play. Rating = 5
• Other than Adrian Peterson’s long run on the first play, the Lions really slowed down AP in the run game. That doesn’t bode too well for Rashard Mendenhall who already has some question marks. Rating = 3
• Larry Fitzgerald put up 24 fantasy points last week against a pretty decent Rams defense. I like him again this week against the Lions. Andre Roberts had a nice week as well.
• It sounds like Rob Housler is out this week so avoid playing him. Rating = 0

Detroit

• Matthew Stafford finished with 21 fantasy points but a lot of that came from Reggie Bush long TD catch. I expect a better week from both him and Calvin Johnson this week. Rating = 7
• Reggie Bush is in for a monster year. This offense fits him perfectly and the fact that they don’t have a great TE only helps his value. He will find huge holes running the ball and be a great threat catching the ball too. Play him this week as it will likely be the last time he is even remotely affordable. Rating = 9
• Calvin Johnson was sure quiet last week. Can’t expect that to last very long. The Cardinals have a good defense but this may be a chance to take Calvin at a price that’s cheaper than usual.
• Neither Fauria or Pettigrew look like great fantasy options this week. Rating = 3

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