Advanced Stats – Pitching: Monday, August 21st
There is certainly a predicament tonight. I’m not even talking about the state of this pitching board, which is pretty awful, not even considering the major problem. The Twins and White Sox are playing a double header with the first game starting two hours before the main slate locks. DraftKings has done the compassionate thing and excluded the games from their slate. FanDuel, however, is including the second one. Making things even difficult, the Twins are playing games with their pitchers. As of Monday morning, MLB.com still does not have a pitcher listed, though Twitter is promoting Melville and Gee. The order is unknown, but only one has a price tag attached.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.4 | 3.46 | 5.81 | 56.1% | 0.97 | 3.45 | 4.02 | PIT | 94 | 93 | 124 |
| Andrew Albers | SEA | 7 | 4.11 | 3.73 | 44.9% | 1 | 6.53 | 4.27 | ATL | 88 | 97 | 112 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -0.1 | 4.02 | 6. | 45.4% | 0.98 | 3.94 | 4.73 | MIN | 91 | 92 | 142 |
| Carson Fulmer | CHW | -0.1 | 4.8 | 44.1% | 0.98 | 6.04 | MIN | 91 | 100 | 142 | ||
| Chris Smith | OAK | -9.8 | 4.7 | 5.85 | 39.9% | 1.02 | 4.72 | 5.36 | BAL | 102 | 99 | 115 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | -4.1 | 5 | 6.03 | 44.0% | 0.93 | 5.9 | 2.25 | MIL | 96 | 94 | 129 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.8 | 4.15 | 6.46 | 49.4% | 0.91 | 4.05 | 5.62 | ANA | 99 | 81 | 108 |
| Dillon Gee | MIN | -0.3 | 4.53 | 5.07 | 40.7% | 0.98 | 4.78 | 3.72 | CHW | 92 | 88 | 114 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.3 | 4.24 | 5.57 | 33.1% | 1.09 | 4.41 | 4.08 | CLE | 105 | 102 | 124 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -1.6 | 4.01 | 5.96 | 45.0% | 0.97 | 3.97 | 3.32 | LOS | 100 | 108 | 90 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 1.1 | 4.51 | 4.84 | 38.9% | 1.09 | 4.53 | 3.35 | BOS | 93 | 92 | 116 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -1 | 4.32 | 5.49 | 40.6% | 1 | 4.37 | 6.24 | SEA | 94 | 103 | 121 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 1.7 | 4.42 | 5.37 | 52.3% | 0.91 | 3.97 | 7.04 | ARI | 80 | 98 | 79 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -5.2 | 4.23 | 5.56 | 44.5% | 0.91 | 4.35 | 5.99 | NYM | 89 | 100 | 73 |
| Tim Melville | MIN | -0.3 | 6.24 | 3.5 | 35.3% | 0.98 | 8.59 | CHW | 92 | 88 | 114 | |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 4.1 | 4.31 | 5.23 | 42.9% | 0.91 | 4.33 | 4.3 | TEX | 82 | 86 | 168 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -6 | 4.44 | 5.49 | 48.6% | 1.02 | 4.2 | 4.39 | OAK | 86 | 84 | 92 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -2 | 4.43 | 5.78 | 48.0% | 0.93 | 4.54 | 5.61 | SFO | 82 | 83 | 116 |
Alex Wood struck out six of 27 White Sox batters through seven innings in his last start, his highest total since his first start of July. It took him only 79 pitches to do so as well. He hasn’t exceeded 90 in three starts. The workload limitation is still a very real thing. He’s not going beyond seven no matter how well he pitches, but the pitching well point is very important. While his velocity remains down over the last month compared to earlier in the season, he has generated a 15 SwStr% over his last two starts after three straight starts in single digits. His ground ball rate hit 50% for the first time in a month last time out as well, another good sign. For the season, he has a 19.7 K-BB%, 57 GB% (fifth among those with at least 110 innings) and a 3.2 Hard-Soft%. His 84.5 mph aEV, 3.5% Barrels/BBE and 24.1% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board. The Pirates have a 17.8 K% at home and 10.1 BB% vs LHP, but it’s a terrific park for a left-handed pitcher (10.1 HR/FB at home). He should be okay here, even with a marginal ground ball rate.
Andrew Albers is a nearly 32 year-old minor league journeyman with less than 100 innings with an 8.2 K-BB% in the majors. However, in 120.2 AAA innings this year, he generated a 19.6 K-BB% with excellent control (3.9 BB%) and pitched reasonably well in his first major league start this season, striking out four of 20 Orioles (just a 5.2 SwStr% though) and allowing one run over five innings with a HR and a walk. Atlanta does not strike out a lot and has not been bad against LHP, but that 15.6 HR/FB likely has some to do with a right-handed power hitter currently on the DL (Note: Kemp is back in the lineup tonight).
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed three or four ERs in half of his 16 starts this year, but more than that only once. He’s reached six innings just twice in six starts since returning from the DL and has recorded a seventh inning out just once this season. However, 26 K% (17.6 K-BB%) is third best on the board and only 0.1 behind Wood. His 9.1% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board and he has the most difficult matchup on the slate in Cleveland. The Tribe has just a 7.3 K-BB% vs LHP and the second best sOPS+ (114) against fly ball pitchers.
Gerrit Cole has been somewhat inconsistent, but at least occasionally showing signs of dominance. He struck out nine of 25 Brewers last time out, but allowed three HRs. He’s allowed a HR in four straight now with four of his last five starts on the road, but Milwaukee really the only power friendly park he’s pitched in. He has gone at least six innings in eight straight and struck out at least seven in six of his last nine starts, over which he has a 19.9 K-BB%. In seven starts since the break, he has a -5.6 Hard-Soft%, though hasn’t had a ground ball rate above 36% in any of his last four. That’s a lot to digest, but his 85.4 mph aEV is best on the board among qualified pitchers and more fly balls is not necessarily terrible in Pittsburgh, especially with that kind of contact authority (20.4 IFFB% since the break). The Dodgers are a tough offense with a 20.8 Hard-Soft% and 10.2 BB% vs RHP. The park is more neutral towards LHBs, whom have a .345 wOBA and 15 HRs against him this year (18.8 Hard-Soft%, 5.3 IFFB%), but just a .264 wOBA with two HRs since the break (-9.8 Hard-Soft%, 18.8 IFFB%).
Mike Clevinger has the top strikeout rate and swinging strike rate on the board (27.1% and 13.2%). While he’s not facing a power house offense in a difficult park, the Red Sox strike out at a pace less than the average offense (19.2% vs RHP), though certainly enough to keep him in play on this board. Initially, he had great difficult with same handed batters, but has been locating lower and better, especially with breaking stuff this year, which has led to improvements against RHBs (.281 wOBA) and in his contact rate over all (78.6% to 68.9% this year). The issue is that LHBs have had more success against him (31.2 GB%, 26.6 Hard-Soft%) and he’s still walking batters from either side more than 11% of the time.
Tyler Skaggs has been striking out batters at a bit above an average clip in three starts back from the DL, but with a SwStr% that struggles to support that. A sub-20% hard contact rate in each of his first two starts back, that jumped above 60% in his most recent effort in Washington. For 275 innings in his career, he’s been a perfectly league average starting pitcher (11.9 K-BB%, 45.1 GB%, 30.9 Hard%). That’s a useful pitcher at home tonight. While the Rangers are the hottest team in the league (15 BB%, 25.8 HR/FB over the last week), taking them out of their home park (26.3 K%) and sticking them in a negative run environment against a somewhat competent LHP (25.1 K%) makes this a favorable matchup for the pitcher.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Taijuan Walker (.286 – 71% – 11.9) has an 18.3% unearned run rate and has struck out just five of his last 50 batters with as many walks and three HRs. He’s struck out more than four in just six of his last 14 starts. The Mets have been an average offense against RHP this year, but they have traded off a good portion of their LH power and have a 25.5 K% over the last week. He does cost less than $8K in what looks like a pretty favorable spot now. It’s interesting if he were pitching better, but who even knows if he’s fully healthy. Velocity has been dropping and his last time out was his lowest of the season.
Cole Hamels (.236 – 73.8% – 12.0) costs $11.6K on DraftKings. Get the heck outta here! He walked five in his last start and hasn’t struck out more than that more than once since before the break. The Angels are pretty atrocious against LHP, but that’s not because they strike out. It’s because they have just a 9.3 HR/FB against southpaws. They have a 30.4 HR/FB over the last week.
Dillon Gee (.324 – 77.8% – 14.3) is missing more bats than usual out of the bullpen for Texas and now Minnesota. He has started just one game though. Four of the 13 runs he’s allowed have been unearned. His 84.5 mph aEV is lowest on the board, but again, a very small sample mostly out of the pen.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Carlos Rodon and Tim Melville appeared to be scheduled for game one at this point from the best information a twitter search can gather, which takes one potentially useful arm off the slate, though Rodon has struck out just eight of his last 58 batters, after three straight starts with at least nine, after starting the season with four or fewer in three of his first four.
Wade Miley has been missing bats at a league average rate over the last month and while it looked like he was sacrificing ground balls again to do that for a while, his ground ball rate has been above 55% in each of his last two starts with a hard hit rate well below 30%. That said, his SwStr% has dropped in three straight starts. You’re never sure what he’s going to do and the A’s do have some power in a dangerous park in Baltimore tonight, but that’s more against RHP (10.4 HR/FB vs LHP), while they strike out a lot (24.9% on the road, 24.4% vs LHP, 23.7% last seven days). Personally, I’m not using him, especially at home, but this would be the spot and the slate if I ever were to consider him.
Carson Fulmer was the sixth ranked prospect in the organization this pre-season (before the White Sox traded off most of their veterans and improved the system) by Fangraphs. He just squeezed into the top 100 at #98 to0 and had a 50 FB grade slapped on him with several potentially quality pitches, but no real breaking ball. Evaluators are actually souring on him after he was a first rounder out of Vanderbilt two years back and believe he could end up in the bullpen without improved control. He walked 11.5% of AAA batters in 122 innings this year after that report and seven of 53 major league batters, while hitting another two in his first 11.2 major league innings in relief. The Twins haven’t been very good at home this year and have a 27.8 K% over the last week, but with a 23.9 HR/FB.
Robert Gsellman walked three and struck out just two Yankees in his return from over a month on the DL with a hamstring issue. While his strikeout rate has been a major disappointment, he’s handled contact decently with an 86.5 mph aEV and 51.4 GB% and appears to have a strong matchup against an Arizona team that just hasn’t been comfortable at all away from home (24.3 K%) and that’s continued to show over the last week (27.7 K%).
Zach Davies does have an 85.7 mph aEV (4.6% Barrels/BBE) and is one of the top contact management spots in the league in San Francisco (6.2 HR/FB at home, 7.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 3.0 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but the Giants have a 15.2 K% over the last week that is actually higher than his 15% strikeout rate on the season.
Chris Stratton struck out 10 of 26 Washington batters in his last start, but only 12 of the other 87 batters he has faced this year. His 20.2 K% at AAA this season was his highest rate since A ball in 2014. In 35.2 career major league innings, he’s walked 11.5% of the batters he’s faced. The Brewers are a high strikeout act (25% on the road, vs RHP and over the last week) and the big park in San Francisco should mute their power somewhat (17.7 HR/FB on the road, 19.3 HR/FB vs RHP, 31.7 HR/FB over the last week), but that last start seems like an outlier. He was the ninth ranked prospect in a below average system prior to the season by Fangraphs, but the 26 year-old was given just a 45 Future Value grade.
Mike Foltynewicz has struck out six of 42 batters since striking out 11 three starts back. True, his last start was in Colorado, but he’s allowed 14 ERs over his last six innings with a 39.3 Hard-Soft%. LHBs have a .366 wOBA with a 28.6 Hard-Soft% against him this year now (32.6 GB%). Seattle has an above average offense against RHP with some LH pop.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.1% | 6.8% | Road | 24.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Albers | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.1% | 6.7% | Road | 13.0% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.6% | Home | 23.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 6.9% |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | L2 Years | 18.9% | 13.2% | Home | 7.1% | 21.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.0% | 9.7% | Road | 19.6% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 4.4% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Years | 18.0% | 11.5% | Home | 13.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 3.9% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.2% | 8.3% | Road | 21.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 12.7% |
| Dillon Gee | Twins | L2 Years | 16.8% | 6.8% | Road | 15.2% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 2.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 23.0% | 8.4% | Road | 24.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 6.4% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.1% | Home | 20.0% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 5.6% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.9% | 12.5% | Home | 23.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 11.4% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.6% | Home | 21.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.8% | Home | 18.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 13.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.9% | Road | 20.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Tim Melville | Twins | L2 Years | 14.8% | 16.7% | Road | 10.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 23.0% | 9.6% | Home | 22.8% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 10.9% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.0% | 8.7% | Home | 20.9% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 12.0% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.5% | 6.8% | Road | 15.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 8.8% | 7.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 8.9% | LH | 19.8% | 10.1% | L7Days | 17.1% | 7.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.5% | 7.1% | LH | 18.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.7% |
| Twins | Road | 21.9% | 9.1% | LH | 19.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.7% |
| Twins | Road | 21.9% | 9.1% | RH | 22.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.6% | 7.1% | RH | 21.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.1% | 8.6% | RH | 25.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.1% | 8.9% |
| Angels | Home | 18.4% | 7.8% | LH | 19.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.7% | 11.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.3% | 7.4% | RH | 22.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 15.5% | 8.2% |
| Indians | Home | 19.1% | 10.1% | LH | 17.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.5% | 10.7% | RH | 22.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 11.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 8.8% | RH | 19.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.8% | 7.4% | RH | 20.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.3% | 8.5% | RH | 23.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 7.6% |
| Mets | Home | 20.5% | 8.3% | RH | 19.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.3% | 7.4% | RH | 22.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 15.5% | 8.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.3% | 8.1% | LH | 25.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 15.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.9% | 9.2% | LH | 24.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.9% |
| Giants | Home | 18.8% | 7.2% | RH | 19.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.2% | 8.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 11.6% | 5.9% | 2017 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | Road | 26.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 14.3% | 7.4% |
| Andrew Albers | Mariners | L2 Years | 39.7% | 25.0% | 24.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% | Road | 35.3% | 42.9% | 23.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.2% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 2017 | 31.9% | 21.3% | 18.0% | Home | 27.1% | 15.8% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.4% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 2017 | Home | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.2% | 15.3% | 16.9% | 2017 | 36.4% | 17.0% | 20.5% | Road | 28.8% | 17.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 48.7% | 22.2% | 35.2% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Years | 24.8% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 2017 | 27.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | Home | 25.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | -13.4% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 2017 | 36.6% | 12.0% | 23.4% | Road | 32.3% | 12.0% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 14.3% | 12.8% |
| Dillon Gee | Twins | L2 Years | 28.2% | 15.2% | 6.9% | 2017 | 24.4% | 14.3% | -5.1% | Road | 28.3% | 19.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 10.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 2017 | 31.4% | 10.6% | 13.9% | Road | 31.0% | 9.4% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 0.0% | 19.3% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 2017 | 30.8% | 16.8% | 6.5% | Home | 30.4% | 10.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 25.0% | 5.7% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 33.9% | 13.6% | 17.6% | 2017 | 35.9% | 13.9% | 21.1% | Home | 34.7% | 15.9% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 45.8% | 25.0% | 41.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 29.9% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 2017 | 29.1% | 13.4% | 15.2% | Home | 30.1% | 8.9% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 0.0% | 39.3% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 2017 | 33.7% | 17.7% | 13.7% | Home | 30.2% | 13.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 16.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 2017 | 33.4% | 11.9% | 18.5% | Road | 30.1% | 14.5% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| Tim Melville | Twins | L2 Years | 33.3% | 45.5% | 19.4% | 2017 | Road | 28.6% | 40.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 31.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 2017 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 5.6% | Home | 30.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.3% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 18.4% | 16.8% | Home | 30.5% | 18.2% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 2017 | 29.3% | 12.5% | 10.1% | Road | 28.6% | 10.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 0.0% | 19.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 29.9% | 10.1% | 8.3% | LH | 30.6% | 12.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 35.5% | 16.7% | 14.0% |
| Braves | Home | 29.6% | 12.0% | 10.1% | LH | 29.3% | 15.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 36.0% | 14.3% | 18.3% |
| Twins | Road | 30.9% | 11.9% | 13.2% | LH | 30.1% | 9.8% | 11.0% | L7Days | 34.5% | 23.9% | 20.7% |
| Twins | Road | 30.9% | 11.9% | 13.2% | RH | 33.5% | 13.4% | 17.1% | L7Days | 34.5% | 23.9% | 20.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.2% | 16.4% | 11.2% | RH | 32.3% | 15.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 18.8% | 16.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 31.1% | 17.7% | 12.3% | RH | 34.1% | 19.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 35.5% | 31.7% | 9.7% |
| Angels | Home | 29.1% | 12.9% | 10.0% | LH | 29.8% | 9.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 32.3% | 30.4% | 10.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.7% | 13.1% | 7.4% | RH | 30.4% | 13.4% | 11.1% | L7Days | 28.4% | 16.4% | 4.5% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% | LH | 31.6% | 12.4% | 13.5% | L7Days | 37.1% | 17.6% | 21.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 35.0% | 14.7% | 19.2% | RH | 36.2% | 14.9% | 20.8% | L7Days | 38.9% | 5.8% | 22.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 31.9% | 11.4% | 11.8% | RH | 33.7% | 11.0% | 16.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 14.3% | 5.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 32.1% | 11.4% | 14.2% | RH | 30.8% | 12.4% | 12.7% | L7Days | 34.6% | 11.3% | 17.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.8% | 13.8% | 10.6% | RH | 34.9% | 15.0% | 17.5% | L7Days | 30.0% | 15.0% | 11.2% |
| Mets | Home | 33.7% | 11.8% | 14.6% | RH | 34.8% | 13.8% | 17.4% | L7Days | 33.3% | 19.2% | 12.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.7% | 13.1% | 7.4% | RH | 30.4% | 13.4% | 11.1% | L7Days | 28.4% | 16.4% | 4.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.7% | 16.3% | 10.3% | LH | 30.9% | 14.3% | 10.4% | L7Days | 42.5% | 25.8% | 28.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.2% | 12.1% | 16.0% | LH | 32.0% | 10.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 24.0% | 13.3% | 6.0% |
| Giants | Home | 25.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | RH | 28.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 27.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 26.1% | 12.7% | 2.06 | 15.9% | 10.2% | 1.56 |
| Andrew Albers | SEA | 20.0% | 5.2% | 3.85 | 20.0% | 5.2% | 3.85 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 25.9% | 10.6% | 2.44 | 28.7% | 10.3% | 2.79 |
| Carson Fulmer | CHW | ||||||
| Chris Smith | OAK | 13.1% | 8.1% | 1.62 | 12.0% | 7.0% | 1.71 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 19.5% | 10.4% | 1.88 | 26.5% | 10.3% | 2.57 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 15.7% | 8.4% | 1.87 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 1.94 |
| Dillon Gee | MIN | 19.8% | 12.1% | 1.64 | 24.0% | 13.3% | 1.80 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.0% | 11.2% | 2.32 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 2.42 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.52 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 2.72 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 27.1% | 13.2% | 2.05 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 2.11 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 21.1% | 9.0% | 2.34 | 25.0% | 10.2% | 2.45 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 15.6% | 7.5% | 2.08 | 8.7% | 6.9% | 1.26 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 20.5% | 8.5% | 2.41 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.48 |
| Tim Melville | MIN | ||||||
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 23.1% | 9.2% | 2.51 | 21.5% | 7.8% | 2.76 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 19.3% | 7.7% | 2.51 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 2.33 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.14 | 14.5% | 6.6% | 2.20 |
There are no real season long outliers with more than a few starts today.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.3 | 3.32 | 1.02 | 3.03 | 0.73 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 3.06 | 0.76 | 4.4 | 4.63 | 0.23 | 4.27 | -0.13 | 4.57 | 0.17 |
| Andrew Albers | SEA | 1.8 | 4.27 | 2.47 | 3.93 | 2.13 | 4.74 | 2.94 | 8.47 | 6.67 | 1.8 | 4.27 | 2.47 | 3.93 | 2.13 | 4.74 | 2.94 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4 | 4.16 | 0.16 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 4.75 | 0.75 | 5.70 | 1.70 | 2.94 | 3.35 | 0.41 | 3.15 | 0.21 | 3.64 | 0.7 |
| Carson Fulmer | CHW | ||||||||||||||||
| Chris Smith | OAK | 5.26 | 5.45 | 0.19 | 5.51 | 0.25 | 6.06 | 0.8 | 7.66 | 2.40 | 6.49 | 5.86 | -0.63 | 6.19 | -0.3 | 6.78 | 0.29 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 4.91 | 4.86 | -0.05 | 4.6 | -0.31 | 3.57 | -1.34 | 5.35 | 0.44 | 2.3 | 3.79 | 1.49 | 3.67 | 1.37 | 2.18 | -0.12 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.48 | 4.87 | 1.39 | 4.75 | 1.27 | 4.52 | 1.04 | 4.42 | 0.94 | 2.91 | 4.3 | 1.39 | 4.13 | 1.22 | 3.9 | 0.99 |
| Dillon Gee | MIN | 3.16 | 4.19 | 1.03 | 4.67 | 1.51 | 4.73 | 1.57 | 5.78 | 2.62 | 2.13 | 3.41 | 1.28 | 4.08 | 1.95 | 1.95 | -0.18 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.97 | 4.09 | 0.12 | 4.35 | 0.38 | 3.85 | -0.12 | 3.47 | -0.50 | 4.73 | 4.33 | -0.4 | 4.69 | -0.04 | 3.18 | -1.55 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.04 | 4.04 | 0 | 3.91 | -0.13 | 4.3 | 0.26 | 3.70 | -0.34 | 3.55 | 4.16 | 0.61 | 4.39 | 0.84 | 4.68 | 1.13 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3.75 | 4.35 | 0.6 | 4.21 | 0.46 | 4.22 | 0.47 | 3.80 | 0.05 | 7.5 | 4.48 | -3.02 | 4.32 | -3.18 | 5.42 | -2.08 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.75 | 4.52 | -0.23 | 4.59 | -0.16 | 4.52 | -0.23 | 6.02 | 1.27 | 8.87 | 4.37 | -4.5 | 4.67 | -4.2 | 4.57 | -4.3 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 5.98 | 4.76 | -1.22 | 4.68 | -1.3 | 5.18 | -0.8 | 6.40 | 0.42 | 3.38 | 7.04 | 3.66 | 6.77 | 3.39 | 6.51 | 3.13 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.83 | 4.45 | 0.62 | 4.47 | 0.64 | 4.21 | 0.38 | 4.19 | 0.36 | 4.55 | 4.24 | -0.31 | 4.63 | 0.08 | 5.31 | 0.76 |
| Tim Melville | MIN | ||||||||||||||||
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 3.63 | 4.24 | 0.61 | 4.04 | 0.41 | 3.81 | 0.18 | 4.30 | 0.67 | 2.93 | 4.58 | 1.65 | 4.09 | 1.16 | 4.38 | 1.45 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 5.21 | 5 | -0.21 | 4.57 | -0.64 | 5.03 | -0.18 | 5.46 | 0.25 | 3.9 | 4.67 | 0.77 | 4.25 | 0.35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.26 | 4.87 | 0.61 | 4.65 | 0.39 | 4.49 | 0.23 | 4.90 | 0.64 | 2.65 | 4.95 | 2.3 | 4.64 | 1.99 | 3.23 | 0.58 |
Alex Wood has a 9.7 HR/FB. We’ve been on this part of his game for a good majority of the season and seen it rise quite a bit with five of his seven HRs over his last five starts.
Tyler Skaggs has a .339 BABIP, but 80.4 LOB%. The batted ball profile is not ideal, almost entirely due to an elevated line drive rate. He has a .302 career BABIP with a 20.4 LD%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.280 | 0.270 | -0.01 | 57.0% | 0.195 | 11.1% | 84.7% | 84.5 | 3.50% | 24.10% | 311 |
| Andrew Albers | SEA | 0.279 | 0.357 | 0.078 | 33.3% | 0.333 | 20.0% | 89.3% | ||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.288 | 0.306 | 0.018 | 45.8% | 0.215 | 4.3% | 80.2% | 89.1 | 7.60% | 41.00% | 144 |
| Carson Fulmer | CHW | 0.288 | ||||||||||
| Chris Smith | OAK | 0.292 | 0.228 | -0.064 | 37.4% | 0.221 | 5.7% | 88.5% | 87.8 | 10.60% | 34.80% | 132 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 0.317 | 0.329 | 0.012 | 45.5% | 0.26 | 9.1% | 88.1% | 85.6 | 5.20% | 32.50% | 77 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.289 | 0.236 | -0.053 | 50.5% | 0.181 | 6.5% | 88.5% | 87.3 | 5.80% | 34.60% | 295 |
| Dillon Gee | MIN | 0.298 | 0.324 | 0.026 | 39.5% | 0.237 | 10.7% | 79.0% | 84.5 | 7.70% | 30.80% | 78 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.292 | -0.013 | 32.4% | 0.224 | 5.3% | 83.6% | 87.7 | 9.10% | 33.30% | 252 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.308 | 0.292 | -0.016 | 45.5% | 0.199 | 11.6% | 86.6% | 85.4 | 7.80% | 33.00% | 461 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.303 | 0.278 | -0.025 | 39.4% | 0.226 | 10.1% | 78.5% | 88.2 | 7.70% | 36.40% | 209 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.324 | 0.032 | 39.2% | 0.239 | 6.3% | 85.1% | 87.4 | 6.10% | 33.90% | 395 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.320 | 0.321 | 0.001 | 51.4% | 0.204 | 7.6% | 88.7% | 86.5 | 6.00% | 36.50% | 285 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.294 | 0.286 | -0.008 | 47.0% | 0.188 | 7.6% | 86.6% | 87.9 | 6.30% | 34.90% | 350 |
| Tim Melville | MIN | 0.298 | ||||||||||
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.285 | 0.339 | 0.054 | 42.7% | 0.234 | 9.5% | 88.3% | 86.8 | 4.80% | 33.30% | 126 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.315 | 0.328 | 0.013 | 51.2% | 0.234 | 8.2% | 90.8% | 87.1 | 6.40% | 35.10% | 393 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.302 | 0.002 | 48.7% | 0.221 | 8.8% | 89.9% | 85.7 | 4.60% | 30.60% | 474 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Alex Wood (1) would probably not be a top pitcher on a more standard board considering his performance since the break, but there have been some good signs in his last couple of starts and he does have three quality starts in a row (at least six innings with two runs or fewer). He’s the most expensive arm on the board and not in a great strikeout spot, but a quality run prevention and weak contact one.
Value Tier Two
Tyler Skaggs (3) comes at a low cost in a decent spot at home. The Rangers are propped up by their home park and should suffer greatly in a difficult park against someone who could be considered an average LHP.
Value Tier Three
Gerrit Cole (2) is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but in play on either site tonight. While he’s been a bit inconsistent, he’s shown more upside in his peripherals recently and improved his contact management greatly against LHBs since the break, just not in the way you might necessarily think. The Dodgers are still a dangerous offense.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Eduardo Rodriguez is a quality pitcher with a few flaws or drawbacks, in a pretty poor spot tonight. He does cost less than $8K with some upside though. Normally not on a normal slate, that’s probably enough for some consideration on this one though.
Mike Clevinger isn’t perfect in a difficult spot, but has shown some improvement, mostly against RHBs, which should serve him well against the Red Sox. There’s more than a $2K difference in his cost between sites with him making a more interesting SP2 on DraftKings for just $6.5K.
Andrew Albers might be the type of guy you might take a chance on with this kind of slate. An older, journeyman with significantly improved minor league numbers this season in a reasonable spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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