Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, April 28th
We’re covering just a four game night slate today and you’d think there’d be a long winded introduction to make sure and hit my four thousand word quota, but after three straight full night slates from Monday through Wednesday, I’m a little wiped out and need to squeeze in a doctor’s appointment this morning, so you’ve been saved. I’m also a little depressed seeing myself drop from 6th to 18th in the $10K Solo Shot on DK over the course of the 11pm to 12am hour on Wednesday despite having the most player innings remaining in the top 20 at the start of the hour. Nothing Kike Hernandez?
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | -2.1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 1.39 | 1.07 | 3.59 | 4.36 | ATL | 54 | 64 | 56 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | -7.5 | 4.28 | 5.78 | 1.33 | 1.07 | 2.74 | 3.2 | BOS | 107 | 128 | 147 |
| John Danks | CHW | 16.1 | 4.61 | 5.95 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 4.67 | 6.59 | BAL | 123 | 95 | 57 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 1.3 | 2.87 | 5.95 | 1.31 | 0.9 | 2.83 | 4.06 | LOS | 73 | 90 | 83 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.5 | 3.29 | 6.28 | 1.45 | 0.9 | 4.21 | 3.04 | FLA | 94 | 83 | 91 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -15 | 4.1 | 5.84 | 1.32 | 1.07 | 4.07 | 5.8 | ARI | 111 | 95 | 138 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | -6.2 | 4.14 | 5.7 | 1.51 | 1.07 | 3.81 | 2.63 | STL | 127 | 136 | 149 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | -9.7 | 4.88 | 5. | 1.68 | 1.04 | 5.16 | 4.32 | CHW | 87 | 90 | 135 |
Clay Buchholz is facing the Braves. Is the arm with which he throws the baseball attached to his body? If yes, the flow chart says to use against the Braves. The issues is that he’s allowed exactly five runs in under six innings in three of four starts and struck out just two in the other one. He’s allowing more air contact (0.93 GB/FB vs 1.48 career), though not necessarily harder contact. Five of his 27 fly balls have been infield flys, but four of the remaining 22 have gone over the wall. The K and SwStr rates are right on his career rates with a slight drop in velocity that’s expected with age, especially early in the season. He also had a double digit SwStr% in the game where he struck out just two. The walk rate is up a touch, but he’s walked just three of his last 49 with one HR over his last two games. A look under the hood seems to show a pitcher similar to what his career numbers say and that’s a league average pitcher. At times we’ve thought he might be something more, even last year, but I don’t think he’s worse. And then there’s the Braves who’re just obnoxiously terrible, although they finally did hit a HR last night.
Jhoulys Chacin has struck out 19 of the 69 batters he’s faced with a 14.1 SwStr% in case you haven’t noticed. This has been a fairly consistent thing too with a SwStr of at least 11% in all three starts. His velocity is up nearly a mph over the last two years, but still below 90, while he’s not really throwing anything different, so I don’t think he continues this, but perhaps he’s just healthy for the first time in years and outside Colorado. The biggest concern is that though he hasn’t allowed a HR yet with just a 17.4 LD%, he has a 37.5 Hard% that’s not at all out of line with his last two seasons. The Red Sox have been torching the Braves this week and have generally given RHPs a tough time so far.
Jose Fernandez did not look good in his last start and his velocity has been down in his last two now. His stuff against the Giants just looked much less intimidating than normal to the naked eye. Guys always look worse when they’re being hit, but the velocity drop (93.9 avg) gives it some validation. Maybe it’s not a big deal as he’s had a double digit SwStr% in every other start, though he’s also now walked 10 of his last 71 batters. The Dodgers are better than they’ve looked against RHP so far. Expect their 6.8 HR/FB to rise. They have been walking (12.2%) and hitting the ball hard (17.2 Hard-Soft%) over the last week with little to show for it.
Kenta Maeda has allowed one run through his first four major league starts and has struck out 15 of his last 49 batters, nearly no-hitting the Rockies in Colorado last time out. He’s throwing five different pitches between 9 to 30% of the time and nobody has figured out to handle any of them the first time through the league. Obviously certain things will regress, but everything looks great. Only his curveball runs below average by run values. The Marlins have a -1.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Michael Wacha (.347 BABIP – 69.7 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB) has done everything wrong except allow a HR. His bat missing skills have disappeared. He walked four without a single strikeout in Arizona last time out and has been below a 6.5 SwStr% in three of four starts. He’s allowing a normal rate of hard contact even with a 32.4 LD%, but while he can hide some flaws against in San Diego and at home against Cincinnati and Milwaukee over his last three starts, the same might not fly in Arizona, who have a 21.8 HR/FB and 17.9 Hard-Soft% at home. Even on a short day, there’s enough wrong here in a tough enough spot that I don’t want much if any exposure here.
Tyler Wilson (.250 BABIP – 79.4 LOB% – 7.7 HR/FB) has only pitched 13 innings and eight of them out of the bullpen, but has just a 9.4 K% in 49 major league innings. The White Sox have a 1.8 K-BB% over the last week.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rubby de la Rosa has probably pitched better than his ERA looks, but definitely has a HR problem. He’s actually allowed just nine fly balls (2.55 GB/FB), but three have left the yard. He has the ability to miss a few bats and that’s turned into some strikeouts so far, but left handed batters pound him. I’d expect to the Cardinals to understand it and play all of their left handed power bats tonight. They have been mauling the baseball and look like a video game offense so far (33.4 Hard%, 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP). This is a terrible spot for him.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 20.1% | 6.8% | Home | 21.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Braves | L2 Years | 18.1% | 8.9% | Road | 26.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 4.3% |
| John Danks | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.8% | 7.8% | Road | 14.9% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 15.7% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.5% | 7.3% | Road | 29.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 13.7% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.0% | 5.2% | Home | 22.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 8.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.6% | Road | 19.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.8% | Home | 20.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 5.7% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 9.4% | 6.4% | Home | 7.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 4.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 21.2% | 8.8% | RH | 21.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 27.2% | 4.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.0% | 9.3% | RH | 19.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.4% | 8.7% | LH | 21.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 18.7% | 8.6% | RH | 21.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 12.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.9% | 6.9% | RH | 19.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.0% | 7.3% | RH | 19.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.2% | 9.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.3% | 10.5% | RH | 18.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 15.3% | 9.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.1% | 6.1% | RH | 18.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 14.1% | 12.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 2016 | 28.8% | 14.8% | 12.1% | Home | 24.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Braves | L2 Years | 38.3% | 11.0% | 22.5% | 2016 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 18.7% | Road | 42.6% | 7.7% | 25.9% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 0.0% | 26.4% |
| John Danks | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 2016 | 32.7% | 10.3% | 12.7% | Road | 31.3% | 11.7% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 15.0% | 5.4% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.4% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 2016 | 24.0% | 6.7% | 12.0% | Road | 32.4% | 6.5% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 0.0% | 13.8% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 2016 | 25.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | Home | 23.5% | 7.1% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 2016 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 9.7% | Road | 30.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.9% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 2016 | 33.3% | 27.3% | 10.4% | Home | 33.9% | 20.5% | 19.6% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 42.9% | 6.1% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.4% | 4.0% | 9.5% | 2016 | 20.0% | 7.7% | -15.6% | Home | 23.2% | 0.0% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.0% | -8.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 19.6% | 1.5% | -1.5% | RH | 23.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | L7Days | 33.7% | 2.2% | 16.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 29.7% | 9.1% | 13.3% | RH | 31.8% | 9.5% | 13.2% | L7Days | 33.9% | 8.5% | 11.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 33.3% | 13.9% | 11.6% | LH | 30.4% | 16.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 28.9% | 10.6% | 7.1% | RH | 31.0% | 6.8% | 11.6% | L7Days | 33.2% | 11.3% | 17.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.8% | 8.0% | 0.0% | RH | 23.1% | 6.9% | -1.7% | L7Days | 25.5% | 9.3% | 4.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 36.3% | 21.8% | 17.9% | RH | 31.3% | 13.7% | 10.7% | L7Days | 35.9% | 24.2% | 17.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.3% | 16.1% | 13.7% | RH | 33.4% | 16.7% | 13.6% | L7Days | 33.3% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 28.8% | 7.7% | 11.5% | RH | 27.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 29.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 18.1% | 9.4% | 1.93 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 1.93 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 27.5% | 14.1% | 1.95 | 27.5% | 14.1% | 1.95 |
| John Danks | CHW | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.19 | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.19 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 34.0% | 11.9% | 2.86 | 34.0% | 11.9% | 2.86 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 24.0% | 11.9% | 2.02 | 24.0% | 11.9% | 2.02 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 15.8% | 6.2% | 2.55 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 2.55 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.21 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.21 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 11.3% | 6.3% | 1.79 | 11.3% | 6.3% | 1.79 |
Jose Fernandez has seen his SwStr% decrease so far with a five point increase in K% from 2015. Something around 30% seems right though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 6.33 | 4.66 | -1.67 | 4.99 | -1.34 | 5.49 | -0.84 | 6.33 | 4.66 | -1.67 | 4.99 | -1.34 | 5.49 | -0.84 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 3.18 | 2.6 | -0.58 | 2.48 | -0.7 | 1.22 | -1.96 | 3.18 | 2.6 | -0.58 | 2.48 | -0.7 | 1.22 | -1.96 |
| John Danks | CHW | 6.23 | 5.5 | -0.73 | 5.83 | -0.4 | 5.52 | -0.71 | 6.23 | 5.51 | -0.72 | 5.83 | -0.4 | 5.52 | -0.71 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 4.37 | 3.12 | -1.25 | 2.88 | -1.49 | 2.44 | -1.93 | 4.37 | 3.13 | -1.24 | 2.88 | -1.49 | 2.44 | -1.93 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.36 | 3.29 | 2.93 | 3.32 | 2.96 | 2.51 | 2.15 | 0.36 | 3.29 | 2.93 | 3.32 | 2.96 | 2.51 | 2.15 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.82 | 4.48 | 1.66 | 4.13 | 1.31 | 2.83 | 0.01 | 2.82 | 4.49 | 1.67 | 4.13 | 1.31 | 2.83 | 0.01 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 5.94 | 3.29 | -2.65 | 3.75 | -2.19 | 5.08 | -0.86 | 5.94 | 3.29 | -2.65 | 3.75 | -2.19 | 5.08 | -0.86 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 2.77 | 4.35 | 1.58 | 4.17 | 1.4 | 3.64 | 0.87 | 2.77 | 4.35 | 1.58 | 4.17 | 1.4 | 3.64 | 0.87 |
Clay Buchholz – The 14.8 HR/FB is five points above his career average, but I neglected to mention the 66.9 LOB% above, also nearly five points off. I think the walk and HR rates eventually normalize bringing his ERA and estimators down around four. League average.
Jhoulys Chacin has stranded just 61.1% of his runners despite not allowing a HR.
Jose Fernandez should see his 66.4 LOB% and .347 BABIP normalize if he’s healthy. The 38.8 LD% is ridiculous and well above his overall 24.0 Hard%, so I wouldn’t worry much about that. Potentially more concerning might be if the high walk rate and velocity drop continue.
Kenta Maeda has allowed just a single solo HR. The .242 BABIP, 100 LOB%, and 4.5 HR/FB are not sustainable, but that’s very easy to say. Other things are not quite so clear yet and who knows what happens after teams see him a few times, but his current estimators exceed initial expectations for him.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.309 | 0.306 | -0.003 | 0.2 | 18.5% | 82.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 0.305 | 0.333 | 0.028 | 0.174 | 21.4% | 84.2% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.252 | 0.308 | 0.056 | 0.164 | 6.9% | 87.3% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.301 | 0.347 | 0.046 | 0.388 | 6.7% | 83.6% |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.269 | 0.242 | -0.027 | 0.156 | 13.6% | 85.4% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.294 | 0.347 | 0.053 | 0.324 | 0.0% | 88.3% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.313 | 0.289 | -0.024 | 0.188 | 9.1% | 85.0% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.294 | 0.250 | -0.044 | 0.267 | 23.1% | 94.2% |
We’ve already discussed several of these victims today.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
There aren’t enough pitchers to draw tiers among today and so we’ll just list them together here in order of preference in terms of potential value.
Kenta Maeda might not be able to sustain the roll he’s started his major league career on, but he’s likely to be the most popular pick tonight and deservingly so. He’s been the best pitcher in the best spot tonight.
Jose Fernandez – I wouldn’t be against a pass here on a different day due to some troubling signs in recent starts, but it may be that with more time and few pitchers to analyze, I’m making too much of a simple blip on the radar because I watched his last start and he just looked bad. It’s not like you’re going to be able to completely avoid him today anyway, especially on two pitcher sites.
Jhoulys Chacin is not in the greatest spot in Boston, but he’s cheap and has the highest SwStr%. Whether you expect it to continue or not (and I don’t, at least not to this level), that has to count for a lot on a four game slate. I don’t think he escapes another outing without a HR with a hard contact rate above 35%, but I felt the need to include at least one pitcher from the bottom.
Clay Buchholz is probably a league average pitcher which makes him over-priced a bit on DraftKings and much more on FanDuel. He’s a league average pitcher, which makes him priced just about correctly considering he’s likely in line for a win if he can last five innings. It’s not the prettiest choice, but there are only eight pitchers tonight. You’re going to have to make an ugly decision or two.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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