Primetime Parlay: Bears vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks and Props
Throughout the 2022 NFL season, this article will use ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool to examine building same game parlays across various sports betting sites for primetime NFL matchups. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime games. Now let’s build our Bears vs. Patriots same-game parlay for Monday Night Football.
Happy Monday, Grinders! We are coming off of a winning ticket for Thursday Night Football and a night off for the Dolphins and Steelers Sunday Night Football tilt. After a couple of games with some promise, we speed directly into a football wall with the Chicago Bears meeting the New England Patriots. Aside from some survivor pool ramifications, this game doesn’t have much to offer. That is until we load up a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s get to it.
Bears vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay Preview
The New England Patriots are 8.5-point favorites on FanDuel with a pinch of juice on the Bears’ side, at the time of this writing. The implied game total is 40.5 points with a -114 price tag on the under. The Patriots are big favorites for good reason. What do bettors think?
Per SAO, 78% of tickets have come in on the Patriots spread while only 50% of the money agrees. This is likely why we have seen the line move from 6.5 to 8.5 since opening. The implied total has not moved much at all despite 82% of the money being bet on the under.
For the Bears, the injury report is pretty clean. As for the Patriots, Damien Harris will return on Monday night. Kendrick Bourne is likely out while Jonnu Smith (mostly blocking) is also likely in. The big news, at the time of this writing, is that Mac Jones is trending towards returning at home against the Bears. Jones practiced in full twice last week and seems poised to grab back the reins from Bailey Zappe.
For me, the game feels like a perfect candidate for the under, and a script that matches that total. Both teams want to run a lot while their defenses struggle to contain opposing rushing offenses. The table is set. Let’s see what ParlayIQ and the simulations think about tonight’s game.
Bears vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks
New England Patriots Moneyline
We open with what feels like a no-brainer to me. Of course, this has nothing to do with me having my survivor pool life on the line tonight. The Patriots are simply a better team in better form, returning their leader.
While many upsets are predicated on big mistakes, we don’t expect the Patriots to make any horrendous mistakes that put this game in jeopardy. The spread number is very large but I can agree with those betting this number. Bill Belichick has a proven track record of taking away a team’s primary weapon. The Bears don’t really have one.
The Patriots will give Justin Fields fits and run the ball repeatedly at the Bears. I expect an ugly, sloppy beatdown of the Bears this evening.
Under 40.5 Points
Speaking of ugly and sloppy, I can’t imagine this game is going over the total. I don’t see the dynamic playmakers on either side. Instead, I think both teams will be content to run the ball early. Once the Patriots get a sound lead, I anticipate the clock bleeds rather quickly as Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson carry the rock.
Both teams rank in the top six of the NFL in terms of rushing carries per game. With both teams allowing better than 4.7 yards per carry, I don’t see any reason for the ball to be thrown very much.
David Montgomery Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
If we like the under, David Montgomery going over his rushing total correlates very well. Simultaneously, the over on Montgomery’s yards negatively correlates with a Patriots win. So, while we are in agreement with ParlayIQ and the simulations of this game, we are likely boosting our odds because of the negative correlation.
Montgomery reasserted himself as the alpha in the Bears’ backfield despite the explosive talent of his stablemate, Khalil Herbert. Montgomery saw 15 carries last game to follow up his 12 in his return. Herbert only saw seven carries last week despite exploding on a long run against the Commanders’ defense early in the contest.
I don’t get it but that is immaterial. Montgomery will continue to get fed until the Bears cannot possibly run anymore. If this game ever stays close, expect a full dose of Montgomery against a relatively weak rushing defense.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 62.5 Rushing Yards
Stevenson has been the talk of the town in the absence of Damien Harris. Stevenson saw 25 touches when Harris was hurt against Detroit while taking 19 attempts for 76 rushing yards last week against the Browns. Stevenson was able to convert a couple of long runs but was otherwise a bit inefficient in his work. The Bears are likely a matchup that should boost efficiency. So, the problem?
Damien Harris is back. A full Harris limits Stevenson to likely a 50% split of carries. Harris will certainly see better than 10 rushing attempts assuming full healthy against the Bears. Stevenson is likely to return to his normal 12-14 carries instead of coming close to 20. While I anticipate both teams will run the football a lot, the clock is going to wind very quickly in this game.
With Harris back, Stevenson is likely going to need a big play to exceed his rushing total. I’d rather take the under and work against my Patriots’ moneyline selection.
Chicago vs. New England Same Game Parlay Odds
- New England Patriots Moneyline
- Under 40.5 Points
- David Montgomery Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson Under 62.5 Rushing Yards
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ParlayIQ suggests the following price for tonight’s ticket:
Meanwhile, FanDuel Sportsbook offers us a bit of a boost:
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +969
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 4.85 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn