Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Saturday, January 28
What kind of performances can we expect on Saturday from Jayson Tatum, Chris Paul, and LeBron James? Follow along as our NBA betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his three favorite NBA prop bets for January 28 on the hardwood
NBA Saturday started at 3:00 p.m. EST with a matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers in the City of Brotherly Love. Bettors who had a late start to the day still have 10 more games featured on today’s slate, including two rivalry matchups on ABC.
On Friday, we had our seventh consecutive day of profit with our recommendations in this article, missing out on a sweep by the hook for the second time in two days. Across the last 29 days, we are 48-37-2, including a 15-6 run during our hot streak this past week. Below, we have three spots we are targeting for January 28 on the hardwood.
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NBA Player Props, January 28, 2023
- Jayson Tatum u9.5 rebounds
- Chris Paul o9.5 assists
- LeBron James u28.5 points
Jayson Tatum u9.5 rebounds (-128), FanDuel
In Jayson Tatum’s last eight games, he is averaging 11.5 rebounds, which makes the over on this line appear to be far too low – especially against a Los Angeles Lakers team that is among the worst in the league in rebounding. However, a deeper dive into Tatum’s recent success on the glass reveals that he has been converting an unsustainable number of rebound chances into actual rebounds. Since January 11, Tatum is averaging only 15.5 rebound chances per contest, which does not even lead his own team. In that span, “(player-popup #robert-williams-iii)Robert Williams III is averaging 8.7 rebounds on 16.0 rebound chances per contest. Though recent numbers suggest this may be an unwise wager, Tatum is due for negative regression on the boards sooner rather than later. If it does not happen tonight, it will happen in the very near future.
Chris Paul o9.5 assists (-135), MGM
In 29 games played this season, Chris Paul is averaging 17.1 potential assists per contest, which ranks third in the entire NBA. In three games since returning from injury, Paul is averaging 18.0 potential assists per game and has recorded double-digit actual assists in each of his three trips to the floor. Tonight, Paul has an extremely favorable matchup against a San Antonio Spurs team that ranks 24th in opponent assists per game when playing at home this year. The math makes sense here – take the over and live with the result.
LeBron James u28.5 points (-110), DraftKings
In his most recent game, LeBron James attempted only 20 shot attempts, his fewest since January 6 against the Atlanta Hawks. Bettors should expect this volume to be more of the norm going forward, rather than a rare outlier performance. Prior to Anthony Davis getting hurt on December 16, James was averaging 26.5 points on 21.9 field goal attempts per game. In Davis’ absence, James averaged 34.3 points on 23.9 field goal attempts per game. Tonight, James draws a difficult matchup on the road against a formidable Boston Celtics defense. Take advantage of this market number now before it starts to drop in the coming week.
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