Braves vs. Astros Odds, Game 1 Preview, Pick, and Prediction
MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Game 1 of the World Series, breaking down Braves vs. Astros odds and his own prediction (and free pick!) for Tuesday, October 26, 2021.
Braves vs. Astros Odds
| Braves Odds | +116 |
| Astros Odds | -136 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 26 |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
On Tuesday evening, the Atlanta Braves and the Houston Astros will begin the 2021 World Series, with Game 1 taking place at Minute Maid Park. The Braves won their division series matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers in four games and defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship to advance to the Fall Classic. The Astros easily handled the Chicago White Sox in the division series, and then won the American League pennant after a six game battle with the Boston Red Sox.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the World Series.
Read more: World Series MVP Odds
Atlanta Braves (+116)
In 33 starts this year for Atlanta, Morton was outstanding with a 3.34 ERA, 3.12 xERA, and a 3.17 FIP. He ranked in the 78th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, and strikeout percentage. A positive note for Braves fans—Morton was at his best when pitching away from Truist Park, posting a 2.98 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP. In his last 12 trips to the mound during the regular season, he delivered a 2.71 ERA and a 2.64 FIP. Morton has been good, but not great this October. In three starts, he has a 3.77 ERA and a 4.43 FIP. He has uncharacteristically struggled with his command, walking 12.9 percent of the batters who he has faced. Morton is no stranger to pitching on Major League Baseball’s biggest stage, but he has a difficult assignment this evening against arguably the most dangerous offense in the league.
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Atlanta ranked 20th in OPS, fourth in ISO, 10th in walk-rate, and 13th in strikeout percentage. Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, and Joc Pederson have all been tremendous this postseason, each posting an OPS of .909 or better. While facing a southpaw does not seem to be great news for a lineup whose three hottest hitters are left-handed, it is worth noting that Valdez had reverse splits in 2021—posting a 4.81 FIP against left-handed batters. This is not a fantastic matchup for the Braves offense, but they should be able to generate at least a few run-scoring opportunities.
Manager Brian Snitker has been recklessly aggressive with his top bullpen options this postseason, but it has proved to be a successful strategy to this point. Tyler Matzek has appeared in nine of Atlanta’s 10 playoff games. Luke Jackson has been called upon eight times. Will Smith has made seven trips to the mound. It is hard to blame Snitker for wanting to avoid going to Jesse Chavez, A.J. Minter, and Chris Martin, but the Braves are going to need to manage their bullpen usage better if they want to win this series. There are no usage concerns heading into Game 1, due to the scheduled off-days leading up to this contest, but Snitker’s relief unit will be worth monitoring as the series progresses.
Houston Astros (-136)
Valdez missed the beginning of the campaign due to injury, but was excellent in 22 starts once joining the rotation—posting a 3.14 ERA, 3.78 xERA, and a 4.01 FIP. Yet, Valdez was at his best this season when pitching away from Minute Maid Park, delivering a 3.86 FIP and a 1.14 WHIP on the road. At home, he posted a 4.17 FIP and a 1.37 WHIP. Valdez allowed six earned runs in his first seven innings of work this October, but was dominant over eight innings in his second start of the American League Championship Series. He is a volatile option for bettors to trust tonight.
Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, ninth in ISO, 11th in walk rate, and had the second-best strikeout percentage of any team in the league at the plate. The Astros have scored five or more runs in nine of their ten postseason games this October. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantely, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel is arguably the deepest lineup in baseball. Expect disciplined at-bats to lead to a number of scoring opportunities for this group once again in Game 1 against Morton.
Houston’s relief unit has been much better than anticipated so far this postseason. Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Pressly have formed a dominant foursome at the backend of this bullpen. The main concern for Manager Dusty Baker is the same concern that his opponent faces—a lack of depth. Yimi Garcia and Brooks Raley both have an ERA north of 10.00 this October. In a seven game series, we could see some fatigue issues begin to manifest if the Astros cannot get more reliable production from other members of this relief corps.
Game 1 Pick
The Astros are no stranger to playing on the World Series stage. After five consecutive trips to the ALCS, including multiple trips to the World Series, this is a collection of talent that will be unfazed by the bright lights and the excessive media obligations. Valdez was outstanding in his most recent outing against the Boston Red Sox. Morton has struggled at times this postseason. Bettors should expect Houston to take care of business at home in Game 1.
PICKS: Astros (-136)
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